HYPE模型在成屏一级水库的适用性研究
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摘要
水文模型是模拟水库入库流量的重要工具之一。以浙江省遂昌县成屏一级水库为研究对象,基于LHOAT方法、DE方法和HYPE模型,通过参数敏感性分析、参数率定和误差分析,评估了HYPE模型对成屏一级水库入库流量模拟的适用性。结果表明:HYPE模型中极敏感的参数为cevp,较敏感的参数为pcluse、cevpcorr、rrcscorr、rrcs1; HYPE模型在率定期的纳什效率系数(NSE)为0. 87,在验证期的纳什效率系数(NSE)为0. 83,这表明HYPE模型具备在长序列日尺度水文模拟的能力; HYPE模型在洪峰模拟上模拟值低于实测值,原因可能是输入数据的精确性不足以及率定的模型参数并不能较好地反映出暴雨过程中的流域特征;对暴雨情况采用新的参数进行流域特征刻画,模型模拟效果更好。
The hydrological model is one of the important tools for reservoir flow simulation. Taking the Chengping First Grade Reservoir in Suichang,Zhejiang Province as the research object,the flow rate simulation was carried out based on the LH-OAT method,the DE method and the HYPE model,. The availability of the model was evaluated through parameter sensitivity analysis,parameter calibration and error analysis. The Conclusions are as follows: The most sensitive parameter in the HYPE model is cevp,and other sensitive parameters include: pcluse,cevpcorr,rrcscorr and rrcs1. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency( NSE) is 0. 87 in calibration period by the HYPE model,and is 0. 83 in verification period,which show the high capacity of the HYPE model on long sequence hydrologic simulation. The simulation value was lower than the measured value in the flood peak simulation by the HYPE model,and the possible reason may be the low accuracy of input parameters was insufficient to reveal the rainstorm basin characteristics. Using the new parameters to describe the rainstorm characteristics resulted improved simulation.
The hydrological model is one of the important tools for reservoir flow simulation. Taking the Chengping First Grade Reservoir in Suichang,Zhejiang Province as the research object,the flow rate simulation was carried out based on the LH-OAT method,the DE method and the HYPE model,. The availability of the model was evaluated through parameter sensitivity analysis,parameter calibration and error analysis. The Conclusions are as follows: The most sensitive parameter in the HYPE model is cevp,and other sensitive parameters include: pcluse,cevpcorr,rrcscorr and rrcs1. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency( NSE) is 0. 87 in calibration period by the HYPE model,and is 0. 83 in verification period,which show the high capacity of the HYPE model on long sequence hydrologic simulation. The simulation value was lower than the measured value in the flood peak simulation by the HYPE model,and the possible reason may be the low accuracy of input parameters was insufficient to reveal the rainstorm basin characteristics. Using the new parameters to describe the rainstorm characteristics resulted improved simulation.
引文
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[2]魏恒志,陈洋波,刘永强,等.白龟山水库入库洪水预报分布式模型研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(9):57-62+66.
[3]ANGHILERI D,VOISIN N,CASTELLETTI A,et al.Value of long-term streamflow forecasts to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated river catchments[J].Water Resources Research,2016,52(6):4209-4225.
[4]LINDSTRM G,PERS C,ROSBERG J,et al.Development and testing of the HYPE(Hydrological Predictions for the Environment)water quality model for different spatial scales[J].Hydrology Research,2010,41(3-4):295-319.
[5]金君良,王国庆,刘翠善,等.大尺度分布式水文模型VIC在嘉陵江流域径流模拟中的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2012,23(1):55-58+63.
[6]杨柳,刘梅冰,陈莹,等.山美水库集水区径流模拟的日尺度SWAT模型[J].南水北调与水利科技,2013,11(S1):3-5.
[7]GOLMOHAMMADI G,PRASHER S,MADANI A,et al.E-valuating three hydrological distributed watershed models:MIKE-SHE,APEX,SWAT[J].Hydrology,2014,1(1):20-39.
[8]OCKENDEN M C,HOLLAWAY M J,BEVEN K J,et al.Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change[J].Nature Communications,2017,8(1):161.
[9]PERS C,TEMNERUD J,LINDSTRM G.Modelling water,nutrients,and organic carbon in forested catchments:a HYPE application[J].Hydrological Processes,2016,30(18):3252-3273.
[10]YIN Yunxing,JIANG Sanyuan,PERS C,et al.Assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of water quality for agricultural lands with crop rotation in China by using a HYPE model[J].International Journal of Environmental Research&Public Health,2016,13(3):336-354.
[11]VAN GRIENSVEN A,MEIXNER T,GRUNWALD S,et al.A global sensitivity analysis tool for the parameters of multi-variable catchment models[J].Journal of hydrology,2006,324(1-4):10-23.
[12]黄清华,张万昌.SWAT模型参数敏感性分析及应用[J].干旱区地理,2010,33(1):8-15.
[13]阳明盛,罗长童.最优化原理、方法及求解软件[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[14]MORIASI D N.Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations[J].Transactions of the Asabe,2007,50(3):885-900.
[15]朱求安,张万昌.流域水文模型中面雨量的空间插值[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(2):11-14.