基于时变结构可靠性理论的覆冰电网风险调度
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摘要
冰雪灾害会严重影响电力系统的安全稳定运行。对降低覆冰期间电网的运行风险,研究覆冰线路的失效率建模与覆冰电网的调度方法有着重要的意义。在详细阐明应用静态结构可靠性理论进行覆冰线路时变失效率建模局限性的基础上,建立了基于时变结构可靠性理论的覆冰线路时变失效率模型,并研究了基于N-k场景筛选的覆冰电网风险调度方法。以IEEE RTS-79系统为例进行仿真研究,验证了所提模型与方法的有效性,分析了风险系数对调度结果的影响。仿真结果表明:静态结构可靠性与时变可靠性理论计算的覆冰线路可靠度存在较大差别;传统N-1预想故障调度方法风险较大;所提覆冰电网风险调度方法可以通过变更风险系数的取值,有效实现经济与风险的协调。
Ice storm disaster has various adverse impacts on power grid security and stability. To reduce risk of icing power grid, it makes sense to research time-varying failure rate model for icing line and dispatch method for icing power grid. After detailing limitation of static structural reliability theory in building time-varying failure model for icing line, a time-varying failure rate model is proposed based on time-varying structural reliability theory. A risk-based dispatch method for icing power grid is proposed based on N-kcontingency. The proposed model and method was tested on IEEE RTS-79 system. Simulation result shows effectiveness of the model and method and that great difference exists between reliabilities calculated with static and time-varying structural reliability theory. Traditional dispatch method based on N-1 contingency has higher risk. Economy and risk can be coordinated by adjusting risk coefficient.
Ice storm disaster has various adverse impacts on power grid security and stability. To reduce risk of icing power grid, it makes sense to research time-varying failure rate model for icing line and dispatch method for icing power grid. After detailing limitation of static structural reliability theory in building time-varying failure model for icing line, a time-varying failure rate model is proposed based on time-varying structural reliability theory. A risk-based dispatch method for icing power grid is proposed based on N-kcontingency. The proposed model and method was tested on IEEE RTS-79 system. Simulation result shows effectiveness of the model and method and that great difference exists between reliabilities calculated with static and time-varying structural reliability theory. Traditional dispatch method based on N-1 contingency has higher risk. Economy and risk can be coordinated by adjusting risk coefficient.
引文
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[17]王一枫,汤伟,刘路登,等.电网运行风险评估与定级体系的构建及应用[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(8):141-148.Wang Yifeng,Tang Wei,Liu Ludeng,et al.Construction and application for power grid operation risk assessment and rating system[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(8):141-148(in Chinese).
[18]Javanbakht P,Mohagheghi S.A risk-averse security-constrained optimal power flow for a power grid subject to hurricanes[J].Electric Power Systems Research,2014(116):408-418.
[19]Wang Q,Zhang G,Mc Calley D,et al.Risk-based locational marginal pricing and congestion management[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2014,29(5):2518-2528.
[20]文云峰,郭创新,郭剑波,等.多区互联电力系统的分散协调风险调度方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(14):3724-3733.Wen Yunfeng,Guo Chuangxin,Guo Jianbo,et al.Coordinated decentralized risk-based dispatch of multi-area interconnected power systems[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(14):3724-3733(in Chinese).
[21]Reliability Test System Task Force.IEEE reliability test system[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems,1979,98(6):2047-2054.
[22]国家电网公司基建部.输电线路通用设计[EB/OL].[2015-1-12].http://tysj.sgcc.com.cn.
[2]Brostrom E.Ice storm modeling in transmission system reliability calculations[M].Stochholm:KTH Press,2007:33-36.
[3]孙荣富,程林,孙元章.基于恶劣气候条件的停运率建模及电网充裕度评估[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(13):7-13.Sun Rongfu,Cheng Lin,Sun Yuanzhang.An outage rate model and system adequacy assessment based on adverse weather conditions[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2009,33(13):7-13(in Chinese).
[4]孙羽,王秀丽,王建学,等.架空线路冰风荷载风险建模及模糊预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(7):21-28.Sun Yu,Wang Xiuli,Wang Jianxue,et al.Wind and ice loading risk model and fuzzy forecast for overhead transmission lines[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(7):21-28(in Chinese).
[5]Fu W H,Mc Calley J D.Risk based optimal power flow[C]//Power Technology Conference,IEEE,Calgary,AB,Canada,2001:1-6.
[6]Wang Q,Mc Calley J D,Zheng T X,et al.A computational strategy to solve preventive risk-based security-constrained OPF[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.2013:28(2):1666-1675.
[7]秦权,贺瑞,杨小刚.在时变结构可靠度领域中有必要澄清一个错误概念[J].工程力学,2009,26(8):201-204.Qin Quan,He Rui,Yang Xiaogang.Clarification of a wrong concept in the field of time-varying structural reliability[J].Engineering Mechanics,2009,26(8):201-204(in Chinese).
[8]秦权,杨小刚.退化结构时变可靠度分析[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2005,45(6):733-736.Qin Quan,Yang Xiaogang.Time-dependent reliability analysis of deteriorating structures[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2005,45(6):733-736(in Chinese).
[9]Mori Y,Ellingwood B R.Reliability-based service-life assessment of aging concrete structures[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,1993,119(5):1600-1621.
[10]Rackwitz R.Computational techniques in stationary and nonstationary load combination-a review and some extensions[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,1998,25(1):1-20.
[11]Andrieu-Renaud C,Sudret B,Lemaire M.The PHI2 method:A way to compute time-variant reliability[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2004,84(1):75-86.
[12]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.GB50545—2010 110~750 k V架空输电线路设计规范[S].北京:中国计划出版社,2010.
[13]IEC Technical Committee 11:Overhead Lines.IEC 60826 design criteria of overhead transmission lines[S].Geneva,Switzerland:IEC,2003.
[14]晏鸣宇,周志宇,文劲宇,等.基于短期覆冰预测的电网覆冰灾害风险评估方法[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(21):168-175.Yan Mingyu,Zhou Zhiyu,Wen Jinyu,et al.Assessment method for power grid icing risk based on short-term icing forecasting[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(21):168-175(in Chinese).
[15]Billinton R,Allan R N.Reliability evaluation of power systems[M].New York and London:Plenum Press,1994:244-245.
[16]Alsac O,Stott B.Optimal load flow with steady-state security[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems,1974,93(3):745-751.
[17]王一枫,汤伟,刘路登,等.电网运行风险评估与定级体系的构建及应用[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(8):141-148.Wang Yifeng,Tang Wei,Liu Ludeng,et al.Construction and application for power grid operation risk assessment and rating system[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(8):141-148(in Chinese).
[18]Javanbakht P,Mohagheghi S.A risk-averse security-constrained optimal power flow for a power grid subject to hurricanes[J].Electric Power Systems Research,2014(116):408-418.
[19]Wang Q,Zhang G,Mc Calley D,et al.Risk-based locational marginal pricing and congestion management[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2014,29(5):2518-2528.
[20]文云峰,郭创新,郭剑波,等.多区互联电力系统的分散协调风险调度方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(14):3724-3733.Wen Yunfeng,Guo Chuangxin,Guo Jianbo,et al.Coordinated decentralized risk-based dispatch of multi-area interconnected power systems[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(14):3724-3733(in Chinese).
[21]Reliability Test System Task Force.IEEE reliability test system[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems,1979,98(6):2047-2054.
[22]国家电网公司基建部.输电线路通用设计[EB/OL].[2015-1-12].http://tysj.sgcc.com.cn.