考虑线路可变损耗和收益风险的峰谷分时电价模型对电网规划的影响
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摘要
近些年随着峰谷分时电价在多个省份的实施,改变了原有的用户负荷特性,使峰、谷负荷差值逐渐缩小,对电网规划中的负荷预测产生了影响。因此,从峰谷分时电价对电网规划的影响出发,分析了峰谷分时电价对电网规划的影响,制定了考虑该影响的规划方案。其次,对峰谷分时电价模型进行优化,分析了线路可变损耗和收益风险对峰谷分时电价的影响,得到了负荷方差越小,线路可变损耗和收益风险越小的结论。优化后的模型考虑了线路可变损耗和收益风险对电网规划经济性和适用性的影响,对电网规划中的变电站容量规划和投资进行修正优化,使得电网规划中的容量规划和投资更加经济,合理。同时得到了最大负荷转移率是联系峰谷分时电价和电网规划的桥梁,传递着峰谷分时电价对电网规划的影响这一结论。最后,通过仿真分析,量化了峰谷分时电价对电网规划的影响程度,验证了文中采用的优化模型具有更好的适用性和准确性。
In recent years,with the implementation of the TOU electricity in several provinces,the original user load characteristics have been changed,the peak and valley load differences have been gradually reduced,and the load forecasting in power grid planning has been affected. Therefore,starting from the impact of TOU pricing on grid planning,this paper analyzes the impact of TOU pricing on grid planning and formulates a planning scheme that takes this into account. Secondly,this paper optimizes the TOU price model,analyzes the influence of variable line loss and return risk on the TOU price,and obtains the conclusion that the smaller the load variance is,the less the line variable loss and the return risk are. The optimized model considers the influence of line variable loss and revenue risk on the economics and applicability of grid planning. The capacity planning and investment in grid planning are modified and optimized to make capacity planning and investment in grid planning more economical,reasonable. Meanwhile,it is concluded that the maximum load transfer rate is a bridge connecting the TOU electricity price and the power grid planning,and transmitting the impact of TOU price on the power grid planning. Finally,the simulation analysis proves the correctness of the theoretical analysis and quantifies the impact of peak-valley time-of-use price on power grid planning. It proves that the optimization model adopted in this paper has better applicability and accuracy.
In recent years,with the implementation of the TOU electricity in several provinces,the original user load characteristics have been changed,the peak and valley load differences have been gradually reduced,and the load forecasting in power grid planning has been affected. Therefore,starting from the impact of TOU pricing on grid planning,this paper analyzes the impact of TOU pricing on grid planning and formulates a planning scheme that takes this into account. Secondly,this paper optimizes the TOU price model,analyzes the influence of variable line loss and return risk on the TOU price,and obtains the conclusion that the smaller the load variance is,the less the line variable loss and the return risk are. The optimized model considers the influence of line variable loss and revenue risk on the economics and applicability of grid planning. The capacity planning and investment in grid planning are modified and optimized to make capacity planning and investment in grid planning more economical,reasonable. Meanwhile,it is concluded that the maximum load transfer rate is a bridge connecting the TOU electricity price and the power grid planning,and transmitting the impact of TOU price on the power grid planning. Finally,the simulation analysis proves the correctness of the theoretical analysis and quantifies the impact of peak-valley time-of-use price on power grid planning. It proves that the optimization model adopted in this paper has better applicability and accuracy.
引文
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[9]丁宁,吴军基,邹云.基于DSM的峰谷时段划分及分时电价研究[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(23):9-12.Ding Ning,Wu Junji,Zou Yun. Study on the Division of Peak-valley Based on DSM and Time-of-use Price[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems,2001,25(23):9-12.
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[11]朱连波,孙松强,常磊,等.负荷率与线损的定量关系及其在分时电价成本效益分析中的应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(17):43-46.Zhu Lianbo,Sun Songqiang,Chang Lei,et al. Quantitative relationship between load factor and power loss and application in cost-benefit analysis of TOU[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2010,38(17):43-46.
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[13]陈沧杨,胡博,谢开贵,等.计入电力系统可靠性与购电风险的峰谷分时电价模型[J].电网技术,2014,38(8):2141-2148.Chen Cangyang,Hu Bo,Xie Kaigui,et al. A Peak-Valley TOU Price Model Considering Power System Reliability and Power Purchase Risk[J]. Power System Technology,2014,38(8):2141-2148.
[14]朱兆霞,邹斌. PJM日前市场电价的统计分析[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(23):53-57.Zhu Zhaoxia,Zou Bin. Statistical Analysis of PJM Market Price[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2006,30(23):53-57.
[15]王超.基于分时电量综合响应度的峰谷电价优化模型研究[D].华北电力大学(北京),2010.Wang Chao. Research on Peak-Valley Price Optimization Model Based on Integrated Responsiveness of TCO[D]. Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2010.
[16]阮文骏,王蓓蓓,李扬,等.峰谷分时电价下的用户响应行为研究[J].电网技术,2012,(7):86-93.Ruan Wenjun,Wang Beibei,Li Yang,et al. Customer Response Behavior in Time-of-Use Price[J]. Power System Technology,2012,(7):86-93.
[2]李春燕,许中,马智远.计及用户需求响应的分时电价优化模型[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2015,27(3):11-16.Li Chunyan,Xu Zhong,Ma Zhiyuan. Optimal Time-of-use Electricity Price Model Considering Customer Demand Response[J]. Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2015,27(3):11-16.
[3]刘贞,郭珍珠,贺良萍.基于调峰电价机制的商业用电优化研究[J].重庆理工大学学报:社会科学版,2017,31(4):45-50.Liu Zhen,Guo Zhenzhu,He Liangping. Study on Optimization of Commercial Electricity Consumption Under the Peak Load Electricity Pricing Mechanism[J]. Journal of Chongqing University of Technology(Social Science),2017,31(4):45-50.
[4]黄海涛.居民分时阶梯电价联合优化模型研究[J].电网技术,2012,36(10):253-258.Huang Haitao. A Joint Optimization Model of Residential Time-of-Use Block Electricity Rate[J]. Power System Technology,2012,36(10):253-258.
[5]朱文昊,谢品杰.基于CVaR的峰谷分时电价对供电公司购电组合策略影响分析[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,43(14):16-21.Zhu Wenhao,Xie Pinjie. Influence analysis of CVaR model based TOU electricity price on portfolio strategy[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2015,43(14):16-21.
[6]唐捷,任震,高志华,等.峰谷分时电价的成本效益分析模型及其应用[J].电网技术,2007,31(6):61-66.Tang Jie,Ren Zhen,Gao Zhihua,et al. Cost-Benefit Analysis Model and its Application of Peak-Valley Time-of-Use Electricity Price[J].Power System Technology,2007,31(6):61-66.
[7]姚建刚,付强,叶伦,等.考虑峰谷分时电价影响的变电站容量规划方法[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(13):53-61.Yao Jiangang,Fu Qiang,Ye Lun,et al. Substation Capacity Planning Considering the Impact of Peak-Valley Times Price[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(13):53-61.
[8]程瑜,翟娜娜.基于用户响应的分时电价时段划分[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(9):42-46.Cheng Yu,Zhai Nana. Time-of-use price segment based on user response[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(9):42-46.
[9]丁宁,吴军基,邹云.基于DSM的峰谷时段划分及分时电价研究[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(23):9-12.Ding Ning,Wu Junji,Zou Yun. Study on the Division of Peak-valley Based on DSM and Time-of-use Price[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems,2001,25(23):9-12.
[10]刘继东,韩学山,韩伟吉,等.分时电价下用户响应行为的模型与算法[J].电网技术,2013,37(10):2973-2978.Liu Jidong,Han Xueshan,Han Weiji,et al. Model and Algorithm of Customers’Responsive Behavior Under Time-of-Use Price[J]. Power System Technology,2013,37(10):2973-2978.
[11]朱连波,孙松强,常磊,等.负荷率与线损的定量关系及其在分时电价成本效益分析中的应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(17):43-46.Zhu Lianbo,Sun Songqiang,Chang Lei,et al. Quantitative relationship between load factor and power loss and application in cost-benefit analysis of TOU[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2010,38(17):43-46.
[12]胡福年,汤玉东,邹云.需求侧实行峰谷分时电价策略的影响分析[J].电工技术学报,2007,22(4):168-174.Hu Funian,Tang Yudong,Zou Yun. Analysis of Impacts of TOU Price Strategy[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2007,22(4):168-174.
[13]陈沧杨,胡博,谢开贵,等.计入电力系统可靠性与购电风险的峰谷分时电价模型[J].电网技术,2014,38(8):2141-2148.Chen Cangyang,Hu Bo,Xie Kaigui,et al. A Peak-Valley TOU Price Model Considering Power System Reliability and Power Purchase Risk[J]. Power System Technology,2014,38(8):2141-2148.
[14]朱兆霞,邹斌. PJM日前市场电价的统计分析[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(23):53-57.Zhu Zhaoxia,Zou Bin. Statistical Analysis of PJM Market Price[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2006,30(23):53-57.
[15]王超.基于分时电量综合响应度的峰谷电价优化模型研究[D].华北电力大学(北京),2010.Wang Chao. Research on Peak-Valley Price Optimization Model Based on Integrated Responsiveness of TCO[D]. Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2010.
[16]阮文骏,王蓓蓓,李扬,等.峰谷分时电价下的用户响应行为研究[J].电网技术,2012,(7):86-93.Ruan Wenjun,Wang Beibei,Li Yang,et al. Customer Response Behavior in Time-of-Use Price[J]. Power System Technology,2012,(7):86-93.