四川省山洪灾害时空分布规律及其影响因素研究
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摘要
山洪灾害时空分布规律及其影响因素,是灾害时空数据挖掘领域所关注的重点问题。本研究采用1950-2015年四川省历史山洪灾害事件数据,结合地统计、地理探测器、空间分析等方法,系统地分析了四川省1950-2015年历史山洪灾害的时空分布规律及其影响因素。结果表明:(1) 1950-2015年四川省山洪灾害数量整体呈先稳定后增长的趋势;山洪灾害主要集中在5-9月,7月覆盖率100%。(2)县域灾害频次在南-北方向呈递减分布趋势;平均降雨量(历史山洪灾害过程降雨的平均值)在东-西方向呈指数型增长趋势,南-北方向由中部向南北递减。(3) 1950s-2010s和5-9月历史累计山洪灾害重心及各标准差椭圆中心集中在四川中部地区,向东北方向移动,累计灾害点空间分布呈西南—东北格局。(4)县域山洪灾害数量及平均降雨量呈空间正自相关。(5)地理探测器分析表明自然因素、降雨、人类活动等因素对山洪灾害时空分布影响较大,其中不同降雨指标、高程标准差、坡度是山洪灾害时空分布规律的主要驱动因素。研究结果对查清四川省山洪灾害时空分布特征及小流域山洪监测预警、风险评价、防治区划等提供坚实的理论基础和科技支撑。
The temporal-spatial distribution and influencing factors of mountain-flood disaster are a key issue in the disaster data mining. Using the historical mountain-flood catastrophe data that is learned from the National Mountain Flood Disaster Investigation Project from 1950 to 2015 in the Sichuan Province, and employing the methods in geo-statistics, geographic detector and geo-spatial analysis, this paper systematically analyzed the temporal-spatial distribution of historical mountain-flood disaster and the influencing factors in Sichuan Province.The main findings are the following :(1) The total amount of mountain-flood disasters in the Sichuan Province,from 1950 to 2015, remained stable and then increased rapidly. In addition, the catastrophe mainly occurred from May to September, especially in July every year.(2) The frequency of county disasters over Sichuan showed a decreasing trend from south to north. The average rainfall during historical mountain-flood disaster(ARD)increased exponentially from east to west, and decreased from middle to north.(3) From May to September each year and from1950 s to 2010 s, the center of gravity and the elliptical center of each standard deviation of the accumulated mountain-flood disaster are concentrated in the central part of Sichuan, moving to the northeast. The accumulated disaster points emerged in a pattern of southwest-northeast.(4) The spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates a positive spatial correlation between the amount of mountain-flood disaster and ARD in county area.(5) The geographic detector analysis indicates that natural factors, rainfall, human activity and other factors have a great influence on the temporal-spatial distribution of mountain-flood disaster. In particular, the main driving factors are the rainfall index, standard deviation of elevation and slope. The results provide a theoretical basis,scientific and technological support for the investigation of the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of mountain-flood disaster in the Sichuan Province, which can also benefit the monitoring and early warning, the risk assessment, the prevention and control of mountain-flood disaster in small watersheds.
The temporal-spatial distribution and influencing factors of mountain-flood disaster are a key issue in the disaster data mining. Using the historical mountain-flood catastrophe data that is learned from the National Mountain Flood Disaster Investigation Project from 1950 to 2015 in the Sichuan Province, and employing the methods in geo-statistics, geographic detector and geo-spatial analysis, this paper systematically analyzed the temporal-spatial distribution of historical mountain-flood disaster and the influencing factors in Sichuan Province.The main findings are the following :(1) The total amount of mountain-flood disasters in the Sichuan Province,from 1950 to 2015, remained stable and then increased rapidly. In addition, the catastrophe mainly occurred from May to September, especially in July every year.(2) The frequency of county disasters over Sichuan showed a decreasing trend from south to north. The average rainfall during historical mountain-flood disaster(ARD)increased exponentially from east to west, and decreased from middle to north.(3) From May to September each year and from1950 s to 2010 s, the center of gravity and the elliptical center of each standard deviation of the accumulated mountain-flood disaster are concentrated in the central part of Sichuan, moving to the northeast. The accumulated disaster points emerged in a pattern of southwest-northeast.(4) The spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates a positive spatial correlation between the amount of mountain-flood disaster and ARD in county area.(5) The geographic detector analysis indicates that natural factors, rainfall, human activity and other factors have a great influence on the temporal-spatial distribution of mountain-flood disaster. In particular, the main driving factors are the rainfall index, standard deviation of elevation and slope. The results provide a theoretical basis,scientific and technological support for the investigation of the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of mountain-flood disaster in the Sichuan Province, which can also benefit the monitoring and early warning, the risk assessment, the prevention and control of mountain-flood disaster in small watersheds.
引文
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[7]王增武,柳锦宝,刘志红,等.四川省山洪地质灾害气象预警系统的设计与实现[J].测绘与空间地理信息,2013(S1):197-200.[Wang Z W, Liu J B, Liu Z H, et al. The designing and implementation of mountain flood geological hazard meteorological warning system in Sichuan Province[J]. Geomatics&Spatial Information Technology, 2013(S1):197-200.]
[8]郁淑华,何光碧,徐会明,等.泥石流滑坡发生的降水预报方法与雨量标准——以四川省盆地区域为例[J].山地学报,2005,23(2):158-164.[Yu S H, He G B, Xu H M, et al. A precipitation forecast method and rainfall standard of debris flow and landslips happening:Exemplar as Sihuan Basin[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2005,23(2):158-164.]
[9]刘海知,马振峰,范广洲.四川省典型区域滑坡泥石流与降水的关系[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(6):73-77.[Liu H Z, Ma Z F, Fan G Z. Relationship between landslide/debris flow and rainfall in typical region of Sichuan Province[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2016,36(6):73-77.]
[10]铁永波,周洪福,倪化勇.西南山区短时强降雨诱发型低频泥石流成因机制分析——以四川省宝兴县冷木沟泥石流为例[J].灾害学,2013,28(4):110-113.[Tie Y B, Zhou H F, Ni H Y. Formation of low frequency debris flow induced by short-time heavy rainfall in mountain area of Southwest China:Take Lengmu debris flow as an example, Baoxing, Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2013,28(4):110-103.]
[11]胡桂胜,陈宁生,杨成林.成都市灾害性山洪泥石流临界降雨量特征[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2011,30(1):95-101.[Hu G S, Chen N S, Yang C L. Critical rainfall characteristics for torrents and debris flows in Chengdu[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural science edition), 2011,30(1):95-101.]
[12]刘樯漪,程维明,孙东亚,等.中国历史山洪灾害分布特征研究[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(12):1557-1566.[Liu Q Y, Cheng W M, Sun D Y, et al. Distribution characteristics of historical mountain flood in china[J]. Journal of Geo-Information Science, 2017,19(12):1557-1566.]
[13]杨红娟,韦方强,马振峰,等.四川省泥石流灾害的时空分布规律和降水特征[J].灾害学,2017,32(4):102-107.[Yang H J, Wei F Q, Ma Z F, et al. Spatial-temporal distribution of debris flows in Sichuan Province in China and the corresponding rainfall characteristics[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2017,32(4):102-107.]
[14]郁淑华.四川盆地泥石流、滑坡的时空分布特征及其气象成因分析[J].高原气象,2003,22(S1):83-89.[Yu S H.Analyses on spatial-timporal characteristics of mud-rock flow and landslip in Sichuan basin and its meteorological cause[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2003,22(S1):83-89.]
[15]张乾柱,卢阳,秦维,等.重庆市山洪灾害空间分布规律及影响因素研究[J].人民长江,2018,49(1):13-18.[Zhang Q Z, Lu Y, Qin W, et al. Spatial distribution pattern and impacting factor of mountain torrent disasters in Chongqing[J]. Yangtze River, 2018,49(1):13-18.]
[16]周成虎,万庆,黄诗峰,等.基于GIS的洪水灾害风险区划研究[J].地理学报,2000,55(1):15-24.[Zhou C H, Wan Q,Huang S F, et al. A GIS-based approach to flood risk zonation[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2000,55(1):15-24.]
[17]熊俊楠,韦方强,刘志奇.四川省小流域泥石流危险性评价[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(12):1604-1612.[Xiong J N, Wei F Q, Liu Z Q. Hazard assessment of debris flow in Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017,19(12):1604-1612.]
[18]叶超凡,张一驰,熊俊楠,等.湖南省山丘区小流域山洪灾害危险性评价[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(12):1593-1603.[Ye C F, Zhang Y C, Xiong J N, et al. Hazard assessment of mountain torrent disaster in small watersheds of the hilly areas of Hunan Province[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017,19(12):1593-1603.]
[19]谢花林,刘黎明,李波,等.土地利用变化的多尺度空间自相关分析——以内蒙古翁牛特旗为例[J].地理学报,2006,61(4):389-400.[Xie H L, Liu L M, Li B, et al. Spatial autocorrelation analysis of multi-scale land-use changes:a case study in Ongniud Banner,Inner Mongolia[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006,61(4):389-400.]
[20]万鲁河,王绍巍,陈晓红.基于GeoDA的哈大齐工业走廊GDP空间关联性[J].地理研究,2011,30(6):977-984.[Wan L H, Wang S W, Chen X H. GeoDA-based spatial correlation analysis of GDP in Hadaqi industrial corridor[J].Geographical Research, 2011,30(6):977-984.]
[21]李少英,吴志峰,李碧莹,等.基于互联网房产数据的住宅容积率多尺度时空特征——以广州市为例[J].地理研究,2016,35(4):770-780.[Li S Y, Wu Z F, Li B Y, et al.The spatial and temporal characteristics of residential floor area ratio in metropolitan at multi-scales based on internet real estate data:A case study of Guangzhou[J].Geographical Research, 2016,35(4):770-780.]
[22]李华威,万庆.小流域山洪灾害危险性分析之降雨指标选取的初步研究[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(3):425-435.[Li H W, Wan Q. Study on rainfall index selection for hazard analysis of mountain torrents disaster of small watersheds[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017,19(3):425-435]
[23]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.[Wang J F, Xu C D. Geodetector:Principle and prospective[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):116-134.]
[24]周亮,周成虎,杨帆,等. 2000-2011年中国PM2.5时空演化特征及驱动因素解析[J].地理学报,2017,72(11):1-14.[Zhou L, Zhou C H, Yang F, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution and the influencing factors of PM2.5in China between 2000and 2011[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017,72(11):1-14.]
[25]王劲峰,葛咏,李连发,等.地理学时空数据分析方法[J].地理学报,2014,69(9):1326-1345.[Wang J F, Ge Y, Li L F,et al. Spatiotemporal data analysis in geography[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014,69(9):1326-1345.]
[26]杜俊,丁文峰,任洪玉,等.四川省不同类型山洪灾害与主要影响因素的关系[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(11):1977-1983.[Du J, Ding W F, Ren H Y. Relationships between different types of flash flood disasters and their main impaact factors in the Sichuan Province[J]. Resources And Environment in the Yangtza Basin, 2015,24(11):1977-1983.]
[2]周长艳,岑思弦,李跃清,等.四川省近50年降水的变化特征及影响[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):619-630.[Zhou C Y,Cen S X, Li Y Q, et al. Precipitation variation and its impacts in Sichuan in the last 50 years[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011,66(5):619-630.]
[3]高延超,何杰,陈宁生,等.四川省山区城镇山洪灾害特征分析[J].成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),2006,33(1):84-89.[Gao Y C, He J, Chen N S, et al. Analysis of characters of torrent disasters in the towns of the mountain areas, Sichuan, China[J]. Journal of Chengdu University of Technology(Natural science Edition), 2006,33(1):84-89.]
[4]丁文峰,杜俊,陈小平,等.四川省山洪灾害风险评估与区划[J].长江科学院院报,2015,32(12):41-45.[Ding W F,Du J, Chen X P, et al. Risk assessment and regionalization of mountain torrent disaster in Sichuan Province[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2015,32(12):41-45.]
[5]刘丽,王建中,王士革.四川省泥石流灾害保险的风险分析与区划[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(1):103-108.[Liu L,Wang J Z,Wang S G. Risk analysis and regionalization for the insurance of debris-flow disaster in Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2003,12(1):103-108.]
[6]刘敦龙,张少杰,杨红娟.四川省区域泥石流预报系统的构建与应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2016,24(1):47-58.[Liu D L, Zhang S J, Yang H J. Construction and Application of debris-flow forecasting system for Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Basic Science&Engineering,2016,24(1):47-58.]
[7]王增武,柳锦宝,刘志红,等.四川省山洪地质灾害气象预警系统的设计与实现[J].测绘与空间地理信息,2013(S1):197-200.[Wang Z W, Liu J B, Liu Z H, et al. The designing and implementation of mountain flood geological hazard meteorological warning system in Sichuan Province[J]. Geomatics&Spatial Information Technology, 2013(S1):197-200.]
[8]郁淑华,何光碧,徐会明,等.泥石流滑坡发生的降水预报方法与雨量标准——以四川省盆地区域为例[J].山地学报,2005,23(2):158-164.[Yu S H, He G B, Xu H M, et al. A precipitation forecast method and rainfall standard of debris flow and landslips happening:Exemplar as Sihuan Basin[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2005,23(2):158-164.]
[9]刘海知,马振峰,范广洲.四川省典型区域滑坡泥石流与降水的关系[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(6):73-77.[Liu H Z, Ma Z F, Fan G Z. Relationship between landslide/debris flow and rainfall in typical region of Sichuan Province[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2016,36(6):73-77.]
[10]铁永波,周洪福,倪化勇.西南山区短时强降雨诱发型低频泥石流成因机制分析——以四川省宝兴县冷木沟泥石流为例[J].灾害学,2013,28(4):110-113.[Tie Y B, Zhou H F, Ni H Y. Formation of low frequency debris flow induced by short-time heavy rainfall in mountain area of Southwest China:Take Lengmu debris flow as an example, Baoxing, Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2013,28(4):110-103.]
[11]胡桂胜,陈宁生,杨成林.成都市灾害性山洪泥石流临界降雨量特征[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2011,30(1):95-101.[Hu G S, Chen N S, Yang C L. Critical rainfall characteristics for torrents and debris flows in Chengdu[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural science edition), 2011,30(1):95-101.]
[12]刘樯漪,程维明,孙东亚,等.中国历史山洪灾害分布特征研究[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(12):1557-1566.[Liu Q Y, Cheng W M, Sun D Y, et al. Distribution characteristics of historical mountain flood in china[J]. Journal of Geo-Information Science, 2017,19(12):1557-1566.]
[13]杨红娟,韦方强,马振峰,等.四川省泥石流灾害的时空分布规律和降水特征[J].灾害学,2017,32(4):102-107.[Yang H J, Wei F Q, Ma Z F, et al. Spatial-temporal distribution of debris flows in Sichuan Province in China and the corresponding rainfall characteristics[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2017,32(4):102-107.]
[14]郁淑华.四川盆地泥石流、滑坡的时空分布特征及其气象成因分析[J].高原气象,2003,22(S1):83-89.[Yu S H.Analyses on spatial-timporal characteristics of mud-rock flow and landslip in Sichuan basin and its meteorological cause[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2003,22(S1):83-89.]
[15]张乾柱,卢阳,秦维,等.重庆市山洪灾害空间分布规律及影响因素研究[J].人民长江,2018,49(1):13-18.[Zhang Q Z, Lu Y, Qin W, et al. Spatial distribution pattern and impacting factor of mountain torrent disasters in Chongqing[J]. Yangtze River, 2018,49(1):13-18.]
[16]周成虎,万庆,黄诗峰,等.基于GIS的洪水灾害风险区划研究[J].地理学报,2000,55(1):15-24.[Zhou C H, Wan Q,Huang S F, et al. A GIS-based approach to flood risk zonation[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2000,55(1):15-24.]
[17]熊俊楠,韦方强,刘志奇.四川省小流域泥石流危险性评价[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(12):1604-1612.[Xiong J N, Wei F Q, Liu Z Q. Hazard assessment of debris flow in Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017,19(12):1604-1612.]
[18]叶超凡,张一驰,熊俊楠,等.湖南省山丘区小流域山洪灾害危险性评价[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(12):1593-1603.[Ye C F, Zhang Y C, Xiong J N, et al. Hazard assessment of mountain torrent disaster in small watersheds of the hilly areas of Hunan Province[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017,19(12):1593-1603.]
[19]谢花林,刘黎明,李波,等.土地利用变化的多尺度空间自相关分析——以内蒙古翁牛特旗为例[J].地理学报,2006,61(4):389-400.[Xie H L, Liu L M, Li B, et al. Spatial autocorrelation analysis of multi-scale land-use changes:a case study in Ongniud Banner,Inner Mongolia[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006,61(4):389-400.]
[20]万鲁河,王绍巍,陈晓红.基于GeoDA的哈大齐工业走廊GDP空间关联性[J].地理研究,2011,30(6):977-984.[Wan L H, Wang S W, Chen X H. GeoDA-based spatial correlation analysis of GDP in Hadaqi industrial corridor[J].Geographical Research, 2011,30(6):977-984.]
[21]李少英,吴志峰,李碧莹,等.基于互联网房产数据的住宅容积率多尺度时空特征——以广州市为例[J].地理研究,2016,35(4):770-780.[Li S Y, Wu Z F, Li B Y, et al.The spatial and temporal characteristics of residential floor area ratio in metropolitan at multi-scales based on internet real estate data:A case study of Guangzhou[J].Geographical Research, 2016,35(4):770-780.]
[22]李华威,万庆.小流域山洪灾害危险性分析之降雨指标选取的初步研究[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(3):425-435.[Li H W, Wan Q. Study on rainfall index selection for hazard analysis of mountain torrents disaster of small watersheds[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017,19(3):425-435]
[23]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.[Wang J F, Xu C D. Geodetector:Principle and prospective[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):116-134.]
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