不同时间尺度周期的旅游客流量波动特征研究——以西藏林芝市为例
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摘要
采用季节指数、滤波分析和集中指数、饱和曲线与峰值指数等方法,对林芝地区旅游客流波动特征从年际、月份和日变化三个尺度进行分析。结果表明:1990年-2014年,林芝地区旅游接待总人数呈现大幅度增长,绝大比例来自国内旅游;旅游发展经历了探索期(1990-2000年)、参与期(2001-2006年)和发展期(2007年至今)三个阶段;旅游季节性波动特征明显,且季节强度指数呈现出明显的"倒V"型,其中每年5月-10月为旅游旺季;相对于季节波动地区日变化更为突出,在五一、端午、十一等小长假期间出现高峰且节假日客流分布集中。分析认为,国家和地方的政策制度、交通可达性、突发事件对林芝地区旅游的发展影响很大,造成入林客流量不同程度的波动变化。
Variation of tourist flow with time has been a major subject in mainstream tourism research. With the development of sustainable tourism and the change of post-modern tourism,frontier areas have become the popular place for adventure and experience among the young and middle-aged. These places have gradually evolved into tourist hotspots. Nyingchi, located in the southeast of Tibet, has a vast frontier with 13 minority groups. Hence, it spawns rich and unique natural resources and colorful mix of human resources. This article analyzes the tourist flow and spatial characteristics of this area and provides some suggestions for its tourism development.This article analyzes the dynamic features of the annual, monthly and daily tourist flows in Nyingchi using the filter analysis method under the seasonal index, concentration index,saturated curve, and the peak index. Results show that for the period from 1990 to 2014, the total number of visitors has risen since 2001, and achieves sustained growth, except 2008. Most of the visitors are domestic tourists. The industry went through three stages: the exploration period(1990-2000), the participation period(2001-2006) and the development period(2007 to present). Tourism presented seasonal dynamic features and its seasonal strength index showed an obvious 'inverted-V' shape. Peak season is from May to October; the daily variation is more prominent than its seasonal fluctuation. Tourist distribution is concentrated on May 1 and October 1 which are major holidays across the country. Analysis shows that national and local policies and traffic accessibility have a great impact on the development of the tourism industry in Nyingchi. Therefore, according to the time scale of the annual, monthly and daily fluctuation characteristics of Nyingchi, we should further strengthen domestic and foreign advertisement to attract tourists to Tibet. In addition, we should adjust the management and development strategy, and gain more tourism benefits in order to achieve sustainable development in the future.
Variation of tourist flow with time has been a major subject in mainstream tourism research. With the development of sustainable tourism and the change of post-modern tourism,frontier areas have become the popular place for adventure and experience among the young and middle-aged. These places have gradually evolved into tourist hotspots. Nyingchi, located in the southeast of Tibet, has a vast frontier with 13 minority groups. Hence, it spawns rich and unique natural resources and colorful mix of human resources. This article analyzes the tourist flow and spatial characteristics of this area and provides some suggestions for its tourism development.This article analyzes the dynamic features of the annual, monthly and daily tourist flows in Nyingchi using the filter analysis method under the seasonal index, concentration index,saturated curve, and the peak index. Results show that for the period from 1990 to 2014, the total number of visitors has risen since 2001, and achieves sustained growth, except 2008. Most of the visitors are domestic tourists. The industry went through three stages: the exploration period(1990-2000), the participation period(2001-2006) and the development period(2007 to present). Tourism presented seasonal dynamic features and its seasonal strength index showed an obvious 'inverted-V' shape. Peak season is from May to October; the daily variation is more prominent than its seasonal fluctuation. Tourist distribution is concentrated on May 1 and October 1 which are major holidays across the country. Analysis shows that national and local policies and traffic accessibility have a great impact on the development of the tourism industry in Nyingchi. Therefore, according to the time scale of the annual, monthly and daily fluctuation characteristics of Nyingchi, we should further strengthen domestic and foreign advertisement to attract tourists to Tibet. In addition, we should adjust the management and development strategy, and gain more tourism benefits in order to achieve sustainable development in the future.
引文
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[24]杨新菊,吴晋峰,唐澜,等.旅华外国散客旅游流地理分布和网络结构研究.旅游学刊,2014,29(5):87-96.[Yang Xinju,Wu Jinfeng,Tang Lan,et al.The geographical distribution and network structure of foreign independent tourist flows in China.Tourism Tribune,2014,29(5):87-96.]
[25]李创新,马耀峰,张颖,等.1993-2008年区域入境旅游流优势度时空动态演进模式:基于改进熵值法的实证研究.地理研究,2012,31(2):257-268.[Li Chuangxin,Ma Yaofeng,Zhang Ying,et al.Dynamic evolution mode of regional Dominance indexes of Chinese inbound tourism flows during 1993 to 2008:An empirical research based on modified entropy technology.Geographical Research,2012,31(2):257-268.]
[26]李创新,马耀峰,张颖,等.时空二元视角的入境旅游流集散空间场效应与地域结构:以丝路东段典型区为例.地理科学,2012,32(2):176-185.[Li Chuangxin,Ma Yaofeng,Zhang Ying,et al.The spatial field effect and regional structure of concentration and diffusion of inbound tourism flows on spatial and temporal scale:Case of typical district of the eastern part of the Silk Road.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012,32(2):176-185.]
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[2]Kim J H,Moosa I A.Forecasting international tourist flows to Australia:A comparison between the direct and indirect methods.Tourism Management,2005,26(1):69-78.
[3]保继刚.引力模型在游客预测中的应用.中山大学学报:自然科学版,1992,31(4):133-136.[Bao Jigang.An application of gravity model in tourist forecasting.Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,1992,31(4):133-136.]
[4]吴普,葛全胜.海南旅游客流量年内变化与气候的相关性分析.地理研究,2009,28(4):1078-1084.[Wu Pu,Ge Quansheng.An analysis of annual variation of tourist flows and climate change in Hainan province.Geographical Research,2009,28(4):1078-1084.]
[5]孙根年.我国境外旅游本底趋势线的建立及科学意义.地理科学,1998,18(5):442-448.[Sun Gennian.Foundation and significance of background trend line of tourists from abroad in China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,1998,18(5):442-448.]
[6]Mings R C,Mchugh K E.The spatial configuration of travel to Yellowstone National Park.Journal of Travel Research,1992,30(4):38-46.
[7]Asakura Y,Hato E.Tracking survey for individual travel behaviour using mobile communication instruments.Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies,2004,12(3):273-291.
[8]张捷,都金康,周寅康,等.观光旅游地客流时间分布特性的比较研究:以九寨沟、黄山及福建永安桃源洞鳞隐石林国家风景名胜区为例.地理科学,1999,19(1):49-54.[Zhang Jie,Du Jinkang,Zhou Yinkang,et al.A comparison approach to temporal characteristics of tourist flows to sightseeing destinations:With case samples of National Parks of Jiuzhaigou,Mt.Huangshan and Taoyuandong-Linyin Stone Forest Park.Scientia Geographica Sinica,1999,19(1):49-54.]
[9]黄震方,俞肇元,黄振林,等.主题型文化旅游区的阶段性演进及其驱动机制:以无锡灵山景区为例.地理学报,2011,66(6):831-841.[Huang Zhenfang,Yu Zhaoyuan,Huang Zhenlin,et al.Evolutionary stages and dynamic mechanisms of thematic cultural tourist areas:A case study of Lingshan Scenic Area in Wuxi.Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(6):831-841.]
[10]黄震方,袁林旺,俞肇元.盐城麋鹿生态旅游区游客变化特征及预测.地理学报,2007,62(12):1277-1286.[Huang Zhenfang,Yuan Linwang,Yu Zhaoyuan.Forecasts of tourist flow features in eco-tourism area:A case study of Yancheng David's Deer Eco-tourism Area.Acta Geographica Sinica,2007,62(12):1277-1286.]
[11]Snepenfer D,Houser B.Seasonality of Demand.Annals of Tourism Research,1990,17(4):628-630.
[12]Baum T,Lundtorp S.Seasonality in Tourism.Oxford:Pergamon,2001.
[13]Christine L,Michael M.Monthly seasonal variations:Asian tourism to Australia.Annals of Tourism Research,2001,28(1):68-82
[14]马耀峰,李天顺,刘新平.旅华游客流动模式系统研究.北京:高等教育出版社,2001.[Ma Yaofeng,Li Tianshun,Liu Xinping.A Comprehensive Study of Overseas Tourist's Traveling Model in China.Beijing:Higher Education Press,2001.]
[15]陆林,宣国富,章锦河,等.海滨型与山岳型旅游地客流季节性比较:以三亚、北海、普陀山、黄山、九华山为例.地理学报,2002,57(6):731-740.[Lu Lin,Xuan Guofu,Zhang Jinhe,et al.An approach to seasonality of tourist flows between coastland resorts and mountain resorts:Examples of Sanya,Beijing,Mt.Puto,Mt.Huangshan and Mt.Jiuhua.Acta Geographica Sinica,2002,57(6):731-740].
[16]马世罕,戴林琳,吴必虎.北京郊区乡村旅游季节性特征及其影响因素.地理科学进展,2012,31(6):817-824.[Ma Shihan,Dai Linlin,Wu Bihu.Analysis on the features and causes of seasonality in rural tourism:A case study of Beijing suburbs.Process in Geography,2012,31(6):817-824.]
[17]余向洋,沙润,胡善风.近邻景区客流季节性比较及其动态关联研究:以西递、宏村、黄山为例.地理研究,2013,32(1):191-200.[Yu Xiangyang,Sha Run,Hu Shanfeng.Dynamic relation and comparative analysis of tourism seasonality of neighbor scenic areas:Case studies of Xidi,Hongcun and Huangshan.Geographical Research,2013,32(1):191-200.]
[18]陆林.山岳风景区客流研究:以安徽黄山为例.地理学报,1994,49(3):236-246.[Lu Lin.A study on the tourist flows mountain resorts:A case study in Huangshan mountain.Acta Geographica Sinica,1994,49(3):236-246.]
[19]吴良平,张捷.入境游客在中国区域的动态分布及其预测研究.旅游学刊,2015,30(11):74-86.[Wu Liangping,Zhang Jie.Research on the dynamic distributions of inbound tourists in China's regions and dynamic distribution forecasts based on the ARIMA model with the dummy variables.Tourism Tribune,2015,30(11):74-86.]
[20]刘泽华,张捷,吴小根,等.特殊时段旅游客流时间分布对旅游地理结构响应研究:以北京、黄山、西安TDD黄金周旅游客流为例.人文地理,2010,(1):129-133.[Liu Zehua,Zhang Jie,Wu Xiaogen,et al.A comparative study on impact of tourist flows in special-team on regional tourism structure:As illustrated by tourist flows of Beijing,Huangshan and Xi'an in golden weeks.Human Geography,2010,(1):129-133.]
[21]卢松,陆林,王莉,等.古村落旅游客流时间分布特征及其影响因素研究:以世界文化遗产西递、宏村为例.地理科学,2004,24(2):250-256.[Lu Song,Lu Lin,Wang Li,et al.Temporal characteristics of tourist flows to ancient villages:A case study of two world cultural heritages,Xidi village and Hongcun village.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2004,24(2):250-256.]
[22]李创新,马耀峰,贺雅坤,等.1994-2008年西部入境旅游典型省份客流集散时空动态研究:以陕西、四川、云南为例.旅游学刊,2011,26(7):12-19.[Li Chuangxin,Ma Yaofeng,He Yakun,et al.Research on the spatial and temporal dynamics of the concentration and diffusion of inbound tourist flows in China's western regions from 1994 to 2008:Taking Shaanxi,Sichuan and Yunnan province as an example.Tourism Tribune,2011,26(7):12-19.]
[23]方叶林,黄震方,侯兵,等.中国入境游客周期波动特征及影响机理.地理研究,2014,33(10):1942-1955.[Fang Yelin,Huang Zhenfang,Hou Bing,et al.The periodic and fluctuant characteristics of Chinese inbound tourists and its influence mechanism.Geographical Research,2014,33(10):1942-1955.]
[24]杨新菊,吴晋峰,唐澜,等.旅华外国散客旅游流地理分布和网络结构研究.旅游学刊,2014,29(5):87-96.[Yang Xinju,Wu Jinfeng,Tang Lan,et al.The geographical distribution and network structure of foreign independent tourist flows in China.Tourism Tribune,2014,29(5):87-96.]
[25]李创新,马耀峰,张颖,等.1993-2008年区域入境旅游流优势度时空动态演进模式:基于改进熵值法的实证研究.地理研究,2012,31(2):257-268.[Li Chuangxin,Ma Yaofeng,Zhang Ying,et al.Dynamic evolution mode of regional Dominance indexes of Chinese inbound tourism flows during 1993 to 2008:An empirical research based on modified entropy technology.Geographical Research,2012,31(2):257-268.]
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