1978—2015年中国农业经济重心和禀赋结构重心时空轨迹及其耦合趋势研究
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摘要
本文利用重心模型刻画了1978—2015年中国农业经济和农业要素禀赋结构重心的时空演变轨迹,同时通过耦合"经济-禀赋"重心的空间变动过程测度农业经济与禀赋结构的协同程度。结果表明:(1)我国农业经济重心总体上表现出较为稳定的宏观态势,近四十年呈现出先向东后向西北的小幅度移动。(2)在农业要素禀赋结构重心方面,农业劳动力重心呈现出向西北方向移动的特点;农业资本重心在东西方向上表现为先西后东的移动特点,在南北方向上则有较为明显的北移趋势;农业劳均资本重心总体上呈现出向东北方向的"逆S"型移动。(3)我国农业经济重心在东西方向上的移动更多是由劳动力重心移动所引起,农业资本重心的移动带动了农业经济重心在南北方向上的移动。
Based on the application of gravity center model,this paper described the space-time evolution path of the gravity center of agricultural economic and agricultural factor endowment structure in China from 1978 to 2015.Meanwhile,it measured the agricultural economy by coupling the process of spatial changes of the gravity center of endowment structure.The research results showed that:(1)The gravity center of agricultural economy in China exhibited a relatively stable macroeconomic trend,shifting from east to northwest on a small scale in the recent forty years.(2)The gravity center of the labor in agriculture moved northwest;the gravity center of agricultural capital,besides moving to the west firstly and then to the east,showed the trend of moving to the north;the gravity center of per capital generally showed an inversed S pattern to the northeast.(3)The shift of gravity center of China's agricultural economy in the eastwest direction was mainly caused by the shift in the gravity center of the labor.The shift in the gravity center of agricultural capital has led to the shift of gravity center of the agricultural economy in the north-south direction.
Based on the application of gravity center model,this paper described the space-time evolution path of the gravity center of agricultural economic and agricultural factor endowment structure in China from 1978 to 2015.Meanwhile,it measured the agricultural economy by coupling the process of spatial changes of the gravity center of endowment structure.The research results showed that:(1)The gravity center of agricultural economy in China exhibited a relatively stable macroeconomic trend,shifting from east to northwest on a small scale in the recent forty years.(2)The gravity center of the labor in agriculture moved northwest;the gravity center of agricultural capital,besides moving to the west firstly and then to the east,showed the trend of moving to the north;the gravity center of per capital generally showed an inversed S pattern to the northeast.(3)The shift of gravity center of China's agricultural economy in the eastwest direction was mainly caused by the shift in the gravity center of the labor.The shift in the gravity center of agricultural capital has led to the shift of gravity center of the agricultural economy in the north-south direction.
引文
[1]项继权,周长友.“新三农”问题的演变与政策选择[J].中国农村经济,2017(10):13-25.
[2] WALKER F A.Statistical atlas of the United State based on the results of the Ninth Census 1870[M].New York:I.Bien,1874.
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[15]卢飞,蒙永胜,刘明辉.要素重心、空间匹配与地区差异分析——以“丝绸之路经济带”核心区为例[J].上海财经大学学报,2016,18(2):29-43.
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[18]刘竞文.中国农业集聚重心与农民收入重心变动研究——基于粮食类农作物空间布局变化的实证检验[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(12):64-73.
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[21]李小云,杨宇,刘毅,等.1990年以来中国经济重心和人口重心时空轨迹及其耦合趋势研究[J].经济问题探索,2017(11):1-9.
[22]林毅夫.新结构经济学——重构发展经济学的框架[J].经济学(季刊),2011,10(1):1-32.
[23]魏金义,祁春节.中国农业要素禀赋结构的时空异质性分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(7):97-104.
[24]GUSTAVSSON P,HANSSON P,LUNDBERG L.Technology,resource endowments and international competitiveness-US exports of consumer durables[J].European economic review,1999,43(8):1501-1530.
[25]ENGERMAN S L,SOKOLOFF K L,URQUIOLA M,et al.Factor endowments,inequality,and paths of development among New World Economies[J].Social science electronic publishing,2002,3(1):41-109.
[26]BERGLOF E,LIN J Y,RADOSEVIC S.Transition economics meet new structural economics:editorial introduction[J].Journal of economic policy reform,2015,18(2):89-95.
[27]付才辉.最优生产函数理论——从新古典经济学向新结构经济学的范式转换[J].经济评论,2018(1):3-46.
[28]罗浩轩.中国区域农业要素禀赋结构变迁的逻辑和趋势分析[J].中国农村经济,2017(3):46-59.
[29]田友春.中国分行业资本存量估算:1990~2014年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016,33(6):3-21,76.
[30]李谷成,范丽霞,冯中朝.资本积累、制度变迁与农业增长——对1978~2011年中国农业增长与资本存量的实证估计[J].管理世界,2014(5):67-79,92.
[31]徐现祥,周吉梅,舒元.中国省区三次产业资本存量估计[J].统计研究,2007(5):6-13.
[32]陈宇峰,朱荣军.中国区域经济重心迁移的半均衡化与影响因素[J].经济社会体制比较,2015(6):44-55.
[33]叶明确.1978—2008年中国经济重心迁移的特征与影响因素[J].经济地理,2012,32(4):12-18.
[34]杨忍,刘彦随,陈秧分.中国农村空心化综合测度与分区[J].地理研究,2012,31(9):1697-1706.
[2] WALKER F A.Statistical atlas of the United State based on the results of the Ninth Census 1870[M].New York:I.Bien,1874.
[3] BELLONE F,CUNNINGHAM R.All roads lead to Center Laxton[J].Journal of economic integration,1993(3):47-52.
[4] KLEIN L R.Measurement of a shift in the world's center of economic gravity[J].Journal of policy modeling,2009,31(4):489-492.
[5] LECLAIR B,O'CONNOR P J,PODRUCKY S,et al.Measuring the mass and center of gravity of helmet systems for underground workers[J].International journal of industrial ergonomics,2018(64):23-30.
[6] ZHANG Y,ZHANG J,YANG Z,et al.Analysis of the distribution and evolution of energy supply and demand centers of gravity in China[J].Energy policy,2012,49(10):695-706.
[7]刘卫东.经济重心地域迁移与区域经济均衡发展[J].经济地理,1993(2):10-15.
[8]全毅.中国经济重心的南移及其原因[J].南方经济,1996(10):55-58.
[9]张可云.中国区域经济格局演变趋势分析[J].理论研究,1998(2):9-12.
[10]周民良.经济重心、区域差距与协调发展[J].中国社会科学,2000(2):42-53,206.
[11]樊杰,陶岸君,吕晨.中国经济与人口重心的耦合态势及其对区域发展的影响[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(1):87-95.
[12]胡安俊,刘元春.中国区域经济重心漂移与均衡化走势[J].经济理论与经济管理,2013(12):101-109.
[13]马海超,雷明,殷子涵.我国经济发展与碳排放增长的空间特征——基于GDP重心、第二产业重心和碳排放重心的动态轨迹分析[J].技术经济与管理研究,2017(9):112-118.
[14]涂建军,刘莉,张跃,等.1996—2015年我国经济重心的时空演变轨迹——基于291个地级市数据[J].经济地理,2018,38(2):18-26.
[15]卢飞,蒙永胜,刘明辉.要素重心、空间匹配与地区差异分析——以“丝绸之路经济带”核心区为例[J].上海财经大学学报,2016,18(2):29-43.
[16]付强,诸云强,孙九林,等.中国畜禽养殖的空间格局与重心曲线特征分析[J].地理学报,2012,67(10):1383-1398.
[17]王介勇,刘彦随.1990年至2005年中国粮食产量重心演进格局及其驱动机制[J].资源科学,2009,31(7):1188-1194.
[18]刘竞文.中国农业集聚重心与农民收入重心变动研究——基于粮食类农作物空间布局变化的实证检验[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(12):64-73.
[19]冯宗宪,黄建山.1978—2003年中国经济重心与产业重心的动态轨迹及其对比研究[J].经济地理,2006(2):249-254,269.
[20]许家伟,侯景伟,宋宏权,等.1990—2009年中国区域差异与空间格局——以人口重心与经济重心为例[J].人文地理,2011,26(4):85-90.
[21]李小云,杨宇,刘毅,等.1990年以来中国经济重心和人口重心时空轨迹及其耦合趋势研究[J].经济问题探索,2017(11):1-9.
[22]林毅夫.新结构经济学——重构发展经济学的框架[J].经济学(季刊),2011,10(1):1-32.
[23]魏金义,祁春节.中国农业要素禀赋结构的时空异质性分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(7):97-104.
[24]GUSTAVSSON P,HANSSON P,LUNDBERG L.Technology,resource endowments and international competitiveness-US exports of consumer durables[J].European economic review,1999,43(8):1501-1530.
[25]ENGERMAN S L,SOKOLOFF K L,URQUIOLA M,et al.Factor endowments,inequality,and paths of development among New World Economies[J].Social science electronic publishing,2002,3(1):41-109.
[26]BERGLOF E,LIN J Y,RADOSEVIC S.Transition economics meet new structural economics:editorial introduction[J].Journal of economic policy reform,2015,18(2):89-95.
[27]付才辉.最优生产函数理论——从新古典经济学向新结构经济学的范式转换[J].经济评论,2018(1):3-46.
[28]罗浩轩.中国区域农业要素禀赋结构变迁的逻辑和趋势分析[J].中国农村经济,2017(3):46-59.
[29]田友春.中国分行业资本存量估算:1990~2014年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016,33(6):3-21,76.
[30]李谷成,范丽霞,冯中朝.资本积累、制度变迁与农业增长——对1978~2011年中国农业增长与资本存量的实证估计[J].管理世界,2014(5):67-79,92.
[31]徐现祥,周吉梅,舒元.中国省区三次产业资本存量估计[J].统计研究,2007(5):6-13.
[32]陈宇峰,朱荣军.中国区域经济重心迁移的半均衡化与影响因素[J].经济社会体制比较,2015(6):44-55.
[33]叶明确.1978—2008年中国经济重心迁移的特征与影响因素[J].经济地理,2012,32(4):12-18.
[34]杨忍,刘彦随,陈秧分.中国农村空心化综合测度与分区[J].地理研究,2012,31(9):1697-1706.