海岛地区海洋碳汇量核算及碳排放影响因素研究——以辽宁省长海县为例
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摘要
海洋是全球最大的碳汇集聚区。随着气候问题的不断加剧和对节能减排要求的不断提升,包括我国在内的一些国家非常重视碳汇和碳排放的平衡与改善。以辽宁省长海县为例,基于海洋碳循环过程,测度海岛地区海洋碳汇量与碳排放量,并运用STIRPAT模型与岭回归模型对长海县地区碳排放量影响因素进行分析。结果表明:长海县海洋碳汇量走势呈先递增后递减的态势,碳排放量呈波动上升趋势;富裕程度、能源强度和人均旅游产值与碳排放量呈正相关,它们每变化1%,碳排放量将分别增加0. 6358%、0. 3356和0. 2894%。该研究在为海岛地区碳汇量核算提供新思路,测度各因素对碳排放的影响程度,为政策制定提供参考。
The ocean area became the largest carbon sinks area in the world. With the climate issues and the increasing demand of energy saving and reduction,including China,many countries attached great importance to the balance and improvement of carbon sinks and emissions. This paper took Changhai County as an example,based on the ocean carbon cycle process,measured the ocean carbon sink and carbon emissions in the island area. It also used STIRPAT model and ridge regression model to analyze the influence factors of carbon emissions. The results showed that the trend of marine carbon sequestration in Changhai County was increased first and then declined. The trend of carbon emissions was rising. Wealth,energy intensity and per capita tourism output were positively correlated with carbon emissions which would increase 0. 6358%,0. 3356 and 0. 2894% respectively with each per cent change of carbon emissions.This paper tried to provide a new idea for the calculation of carbon sequestration in island areas,to measure the impact of various factors of carbon emissions,and to provide a reference for policy formulation.
The ocean area became the largest carbon sinks area in the world. With the climate issues and the increasing demand of energy saving and reduction,including China,many countries attached great importance to the balance and improvement of carbon sinks and emissions. This paper took Changhai County as an example,based on the ocean carbon cycle process,measured the ocean carbon sink and carbon emissions in the island area. It also used STIRPAT model and ridge regression model to analyze the influence factors of carbon emissions. The results showed that the trend of marine carbon sequestration in Changhai County was increased first and then declined. The trend of carbon emissions was rising. Wealth,energy intensity and per capita tourism output were positively correlated with carbon emissions which would increase 0. 6358%,0. 3356 and 0. 2894% respectively with each per cent change of carbon emissions.This paper tried to provide a new idea for the calculation of carbon sequestration in island areas,to measure the impact of various factors of carbon emissions,and to provide a reference for policy formulation.
引文
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[23]王海鲲,张荣荣,毕军.中国城市碳排放核算研究———以无锡市为例[J].中国环境科学,2011,31(6)∶1029-1038.
[24]陈志建,王铮.中国地方政府碳减排压力驱动因素的省际差异———基于STIRPAT模型[J].资源科学,2012,34(4)∶718-724.
[25]李博,韩增林,孙才志,等.环渤海地区人海资源环境系统脆弱性的时空分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(11)∶2214-2221.
[2]乔然,王彰贵,张滨,等.海洋中的CO2观测与研究[J].海洋预报,2005,(S1)∶106-114.
[3]乔然,王彰贵,陈陟,等.太平洋中低纬海水中的CO2分布特征及其与海洋环境条件的关系[J].海洋学报(中文版),2005,(6)∶32-39.
[4]张云.夏季渤海海—气界面CO2通量及主要影响机制分析[D].青岛:中国海洋大学硕士学位论文,2008.
[5]鲍颖,乔方利,宋振亚.全球海洋碳循环三维数值模拟研究[J].海洋学报(中文版),2012,34(3)∶19-26.
[6]Mckinley G A,Fay A R,Lovenduski N S,et al. Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Trends in the Ocean Carbon Sink[J]. Annual Review of Marine Science,2016,9(1)∶125-150.
[7]Baker C A,Henson S A,Cavan E L,et al. Slow-sinking Particulate Organic Carbon in the Atlantic Ocean:Magnitude,Flux,and Potential Controls[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2017,31(7)∶1051-1065.
[8]鲍颖.全球碳循环过程的数值模拟与分析[D].青岛:中国海洋大学硕士学位论文,2011.
[9]张继红,方建光,唐启升.中国浅海贝藻养殖对海洋碳循环的贡献[J].地球科学进展,2005,(3)∶359-365.
[10]张继红,方建光,王巍.浅海养殖滤食性贝类生态容量的研究进展[J].中国水产科学,2009,16(4)∶626-632.
[11]岳冬冬,王鲁民.我国海水养殖贝类产量与其碳汇的关系[J].江苏农业科学,2012,4(11)∶246-248.
[12]岳冬冬,王鲁民,阮雯,等.中国海洋捕捞渔业温室气体排放时序分析与因素分解[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(8)∶1057-1063.
[13]王媛.碳汇渔业与中国海水贝类养殖[D].青岛:中国海洋大学硕士学位论文,2015.
[14]李梦娜.基于CVM的海洋碳汇价值研究[D].杭州:浙江海洋学院硕士学位论文,2014.
[15]张洪双,张宇红.海南省无居民海岛旅游开发的生态影响与保护研究[J].经济研究导刊,2016,(8)∶123-124.
[16]肖建红,王敏,于庆东,等.海岛型旅游目的地生态补偿标准方法体系的构建与应用[J].生态学报,2016,36(2)∶448-462.
[17]陈淼,葛成军,俞花美,等.海南省低碳旅游建设与发展的几点思考[J].当代经济,2015,(13)∶72-75.
[18]汪运波,肖建红.基于生态足迹成分法的海岛型旅游目的地生态补偿标准研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(8)∶149-155.
[19]于梦颖.低碳视角下海南旅游消费与旅游经济转型研究[D].天津:天津大学硕士学位论文,2014.
[20]张耀光,刘桓,张岩,等.中国海岛县的经济增长与综合实力研究[J].资源科学,2008,(1)∶18-24.
[21]李昊倩.黄海CO2气体通量的估算与分析[D].青岛:中国海洋大学硕士学位论文,2010.
[22]岳冬冬,王鲁民.基于直接碳汇核算的长三角地区海水贝类养殖发展分析[J].山东农业科学,2012,44(8)∶133-136.
[23]王海鲲,张荣荣,毕军.中国城市碳排放核算研究———以无锡市为例[J].中国环境科学,2011,31(6)∶1029-1038.
[24]陈志建,王铮.中国地方政府碳减排压力驱动因素的省际差异———基于STIRPAT模型[J].资源科学,2012,34(4)∶718-724.
[25]李博,韩增林,孙才志,等.环渤海地区人海资源环境系统脆弱性的时空分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(11)∶2214-2221.