摘要
全球价值链分工体系下,纠正出口规模与贸易利益的错配非常重要。本文通过构建融合增加值贸易和所有权贸易的双边真实贸易利益核算框架,测度了中国对美国出口中由中国获得的贸易利益。结果表明:中国对美国制造业出口中的属地贸易收益率约为80%,且存在明显的行业差异;美国对华制造业FDI整体呈现市场寻求导向,而计算机、电子和光学设备行业FDI则具有典型的效率寻求型特征;剔除外资企业贡献后,中国对美国各行业出口的真实贸易收益率大幅下降,但就各年份的比较而言,真实贸易收益率却保持稳步提升态势;外资企业对中国对美出口贡献率的下降导致中国对美国出口的属地贸易收益率与真实贸易收益率之间的差异正在收窄。
Under the global value chains, it's very necessary to correct the mismatch between export amount and trade gains. By developing a bilateral trade gains accounting framework, which combines the trade in value-added and ownership-based trade, this paper calculates the actual trade income captured by China through exports to the US. The conclusion is that territorial trade income rate of China's manufacturing export to the US was around 80% and varied by industries. Manufacturing FDI from US to China had the typical market-seeking orientation, while the computer, electronics and optical equipment industry was an exception that has the characteristic of efficiency-seeking. When the contribution of foreign firm was excluded, the actual trade income rate of China's manufactures exporting to the US fell down by a large extent, but the year-by-year comparison shows a steady growing thend. Due to the shrinking share of foreign invested enterprises in China's export to the US, the gap between territorial trade income rate and actual trade income rate is narrowing.
引文
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(1)在这部分处理过程中暗含的假设是包括在华美资企业在内的外资企业与中国本土企业的生产技术一致,因此可以用属地贸易利益乘以外资企业在中国对美国出口中的比重得到外资企业获得的属地贸易利益。需要指出的是,考虑到外资企业与本土企业生产技术相比对进口中间品的依赖程度更高,这一处理方法会在一定程度上高估外资企业创造的价值增值,进而高估贸易利益漏出,低估中国对美国出口中的中国获得的真实贸易利益。
(2)由于BEA直接投资和跨国公司统计资料仅提供了2009年附属机构所有者股权和总资产数据,所以本文中其他年份的股权比例均用2009年的计算结果替代。
(1)数据来源:历年《中国统计年鉴》。
(2)2014年,制造业在美国对华投资中的比重达到52.5%。