全球价值链视角下双边真实贸易利益及核算——基于中国对美国出口的实证
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摘要
全球价值链分工体系下,纠正出口规模与贸易利益的错配非常重要。本文通过构建融合增加值贸易和所有权贸易的双边真实贸易利益核算框架,测度了中国对美国出口中由中国获得的贸易利益。结果表明:中国对美国制造业出口中的属地贸易收益率约为80%,且存在明显的行业差异;美国对华制造业FDI整体呈现市场寻求导向,而计算机、电子和光学设备行业FDI则具有典型的效率寻求型特征;剔除外资企业贡献后,中国对美国各行业出口的真实贸易收益率大幅下降,但就各年份的比较而言,真实贸易收益率却保持稳步提升态势;外资企业对中国对美出口贡献率的下降导致中国对美国出口的属地贸易收益率与真实贸易收益率之间的差异正在收窄。
Under the global value chains, it's very necessary to correct the mismatch between export amount and trade gains. By developing a bilateral trade gains accounting framework, which combines the trade in value-added and ownership-based trade, this paper calculates the actual trade income captured by China through exports to the US. The conclusion is that territorial trade income rate of China's manufacturing export to the US was around 80% and varied by industries. Manufacturing FDI from US to China had the typical market-seeking orientation, while the computer, electronics and optical equipment industry was an exception that has the characteristic of efficiency-seeking. When the contribution of foreign firm was excluded, the actual trade income rate of China's manufactures exporting to the US fell down by a large extent, but the year-by-year comparison shows a steady growing thend. Due to the shrinking share of foreign invested enterprises in China's export to the US, the gap between territorial trade income rate and actual trade income rate is narrowing.
Under the global value chains, it's very necessary to correct the mismatch between export amount and trade gains. By developing a bilateral trade gains accounting framework, which combines the trade in value-added and ownership-based trade, this paper calculates the actual trade income captured by China through exports to the US. The conclusion is that territorial trade income rate of China's manufacturing export to the US was around 80% and varied by industries. Manufacturing FDI from US to China had the typical market-seeking orientation, while the computer, electronics and optical equipment industry was an exception that has the characteristic of efficiency-seeking. When the contribution of foreign firm was excluded, the actual trade income rate of China's manufactures exporting to the US fell down by a large extent, but the year-by-year comparison shows a steady growing thend. Due to the shrinking share of foreign invested enterprises in China's export to the US, the gap between territorial trade income rate and actual trade income rate is narrowing.
引文
[1]高敏雪,许晓娟.将外国商业存在引入国际贸易统计[J].统计研究,2010(7):18-24.
[2]葛明,赵素萍,林玲.中美双边贸易利益分配格局解构——基于GVC分解的视角[J].世界经济研究,2016(2):46-57.
[3]姜鸿,张艺影,梅雪松.基于资产所有权的贸易统计方法与中美双边贸易矫正[J].财贸经济,2014(2):96-105.
[4]黎峰.全球生产网络下的贸易收益及核算——基于中国的实证[J].国际贸易问题,2014(6):14-22.
[5]李宏艳,王岚.全球价值链视角下的贸易利益:研究进展述评[J].国际贸易问题,2015(5):104-113.
[6]李昕,徐滇庆.中国外贸依存度和失衡度的重新估算——全球生产链中的增加值贸易[J].中国社会科学,2013(1):29-55.
[7]林玲,葛明,赵素萍.基于演进视角的中国属权贸易利益统计研究[J].国际贸易问题,2013(11):45-53.
[8]宋玉华,高莉,王玉华.以所有权为基础的贸易差额统计体系研究[J].国际贸易问题,2006(11):123-127.
[9]万光彩.所有权原则、FDI利得与中美贸易差额[J].财贸研究,2009(4):42-49.
[10]王俊,杨恬恬.全球价值链、附加值贸易与中美贸易利益测度[J].上海经济研究,2015(7):115-127.
[11]王岚,盛斌.全球价值链分工背景下的中美增加值贸易与双边贸易利益[J].财经研究,2014(9):97-108.
[12]张咏华.中国制造业增加值出口与中美贸易失衡[J].财经研究,2013(2):15-25.
[13]郑丹青,于津平.增加值贸易视角下双边贸易利益再分解——以中美贸易为例[J].世界经济研究,2016(5):52-63.
[14]DAUDIN G,RIFLART C,Schweisguth D.Who Produces for Whom in the World Economy?[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2011,44(4):1403-1437.
[15]JOHNSON R C,NOGUERA G.Accounting for Intermediates:Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added[J].FREIT Working Paper,2011,No.063.
[16]JOHNSON R C,NOGUERA G.Fragmentation and Trade in Value-Added over Four Decades[J].NBER Working Paper,2012,No.18186.
[17]KOOPMAN R,POWERS W,WANG Z,WEI,S-J.Give Credit to Where Credit Is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production[J],NBER Working Paper,2010,No.16426.
[18]KOOPMAN R,POWERS W,WANG Z,WEI S-J.Tracing Value-added and Double Counting in Gross Exports[J],NBER Working Paper,2012,No.18579.
[19]RAMONDO N,RODRíGUEZ-CLARE A.Trade,Multinational Production,and the Gains From Openness[J].NBER Working Paper,2009,No.15604.
[20]SRHOLEC M.High-tech Exports from Developing Countries:A Symptom of Technology Spurts or Statistical Illusion[J].Review of World Economics,2007,143(2):227-255.
[21]UNCTAD.World Investment Report 2016:Investor Nationality:Policy Challenges[E/OL],2016,http://unctad.org/en/Publications Library/wir2016_en.pdf.
[22]WANG Z,POWERS W,WEI S.J.Value Chains in East Asian Production Networks—An International Input-Output Model Based Analysis[J].U.S.International Trade Commission,Office of Economics Working Paper,2009,No.2009-10-C.
[23]WANG Z,WEI S.J,ZHU K F.Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels[J]NBER Working Paper,2013,No.19677.
(1)在这部分处理过程中暗含的假设是包括在华美资企业在内的外资企业与中国本土企业的生产技术一致,因此可以用属地贸易利益乘以外资企业在中国对美国出口中的比重得到外资企业获得的属地贸易利益。需要指出的是,考虑到外资企业与本土企业生产技术相比对进口中间品的依赖程度更高,这一处理方法会在一定程度上高估外资企业创造的价值增值,进而高估贸易利益漏出,低估中国对美国出口中的中国获得的真实贸易利益。
(2)由于BEA直接投资和跨国公司统计资料仅提供了2009年附属机构所有者股权和总资产数据,所以本文中其他年份的股权比例均用2009年的计算结果替代。
(1)数据来源:历年《中国统计年鉴》。
(2)2014年,制造业在美国对华投资中的比重达到52.5%。
[2]葛明,赵素萍,林玲.中美双边贸易利益分配格局解构——基于GVC分解的视角[J].世界经济研究,2016(2):46-57.
[3]姜鸿,张艺影,梅雪松.基于资产所有权的贸易统计方法与中美双边贸易矫正[J].财贸经济,2014(2):96-105.
[4]黎峰.全球生产网络下的贸易收益及核算——基于中国的实证[J].国际贸易问题,2014(6):14-22.
[5]李宏艳,王岚.全球价值链视角下的贸易利益:研究进展述评[J].国际贸易问题,2015(5):104-113.
[6]李昕,徐滇庆.中国外贸依存度和失衡度的重新估算——全球生产链中的增加值贸易[J].中国社会科学,2013(1):29-55.
[7]林玲,葛明,赵素萍.基于演进视角的中国属权贸易利益统计研究[J].国际贸易问题,2013(11):45-53.
[8]宋玉华,高莉,王玉华.以所有权为基础的贸易差额统计体系研究[J].国际贸易问题,2006(11):123-127.
[9]万光彩.所有权原则、FDI利得与中美贸易差额[J].财贸研究,2009(4):42-49.
[10]王俊,杨恬恬.全球价值链、附加值贸易与中美贸易利益测度[J].上海经济研究,2015(7):115-127.
[11]王岚,盛斌.全球价值链分工背景下的中美增加值贸易与双边贸易利益[J].财经研究,2014(9):97-108.
[12]张咏华.中国制造业增加值出口与中美贸易失衡[J].财经研究,2013(2):15-25.
[13]郑丹青,于津平.增加值贸易视角下双边贸易利益再分解——以中美贸易为例[J].世界经济研究,2016(5):52-63.
[14]DAUDIN G,RIFLART C,Schweisguth D.Who Produces for Whom in the World Economy?[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2011,44(4):1403-1437.
[15]JOHNSON R C,NOGUERA G.Accounting for Intermediates:Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added[J].FREIT Working Paper,2011,No.063.
[16]JOHNSON R C,NOGUERA G.Fragmentation and Trade in Value-Added over Four Decades[J].NBER Working Paper,2012,No.18186.
[17]KOOPMAN R,POWERS W,WANG Z,WEI,S-J.Give Credit to Where Credit Is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production[J],NBER Working Paper,2010,No.16426.
[18]KOOPMAN R,POWERS W,WANG Z,WEI S-J.Tracing Value-added and Double Counting in Gross Exports[J],NBER Working Paper,2012,No.18579.
[19]RAMONDO N,RODRíGUEZ-CLARE A.Trade,Multinational Production,and the Gains From Openness[J].NBER Working Paper,2009,No.15604.
[20]SRHOLEC M.High-tech Exports from Developing Countries:A Symptom of Technology Spurts or Statistical Illusion[J].Review of World Economics,2007,143(2):227-255.
[21]UNCTAD.World Investment Report 2016:Investor Nationality:Policy Challenges[E/OL],2016,http://unctad.org/en/Publications Library/wir2016_en.pdf.
[22]WANG Z,POWERS W,WEI S.J.Value Chains in East Asian Production Networks—An International Input-Output Model Based Analysis[J].U.S.International Trade Commission,Office of Economics Working Paper,2009,No.2009-10-C.
[23]WANG Z,WEI S.J,ZHU K F.Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels[J]NBER Working Paper,2013,No.19677.
(1)在这部分处理过程中暗含的假设是包括在华美资企业在内的外资企业与中国本土企业的生产技术一致,因此可以用属地贸易利益乘以外资企业在中国对美国出口中的比重得到外资企业获得的属地贸易利益。需要指出的是,考虑到外资企业与本土企业生产技术相比对进口中间品的依赖程度更高,这一处理方法会在一定程度上高估外资企业创造的价值增值,进而高估贸易利益漏出,低估中国对美国出口中的中国获得的真实贸易利益。
(2)由于BEA直接投资和跨国公司统计资料仅提供了2009年附属机构所有者股权和总资产数据,所以本文中其他年份的股权比例均用2009年的计算结果替代。
(1)数据来源:历年《中国统计年鉴》。
(2)2014年,制造业在美国对华投资中的比重达到52.5%。