贸易战背景下我国贸易利益分析——基于属权原则和要素分解的测度
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摘要
中美贸易战公开的理由和"关税豁免"的做法都与贸易利益相关,在目前的全球价值链分工模式下,如何真实反映一国的贸易利益,是值得研究的课题。文章利用1995—2014年OECD和WTO联合发布的TiVA (增加值贸易)数据库数据和WIOD (世界投入产出数据库)中的SEA (社会经济账户)数据,基于属权原则,对全球价值链分工下我国的贸易利益进行了测度,认为虽然我国的出口贸易增加值高于美国,但国内贸易增加值仍低于美国,且我国贸易增加值中的40%,因中间品贸易和资本流动而被其他国家享有。特别是,在本文以电子和光学设备为例分析的高技术制造业,该比例高达70%。同时,对我国和美国国内增加值的来源进行了要素分解,认为我国(包括以电子和光学设备为例分析的我国高技术制造业)主要依靠大规模中、低端价值链工序的投资和中、低技术劳动投入获得贸易利益,与美国偏向投资于价值链高端的资本和高技术劳动的获利模式还有很大的差距。
The reason for the trade war between China and the United States and the practice of " tariff exemption" are all related to the trade benefits. The issue, how to measure the benefits of a country's trade correctly, deserves research under global value chain.With TiVA(Value-added Trade) database data and SEA(Socio-economic Account) data in WIOD(World Input-Output Database),which OECD and WTO published together, from 1995 to 2014, according to the principle of ownership, the trade benefits of our country under global value chain specialization are estimated. It is recognized that although the Value Added Trade of China is higher than that of the United States, but the Domestic Value Added is still lower than that of the United States. Thereinto, other countries, because of the trade in intermediate goods, enjoy 2/5 of the Value Added Trade of China and capital flows. In high-tech manufacturing industry,taken electronics and optical equipment as an example, the ratio is as high as 7/10. At the same time, decomposed the source of Domestic Value Added of China and United States, China mainly relies on investment for low and medium labor input to gain trade benefits, including the high-tech manufacturing industry, analyzed by electronic and optical equipment, while United States is biased towards capital and high technology labor.
The reason for the trade war between China and the United States and the practice of " tariff exemption" are all related to the trade benefits. The issue, how to measure the benefits of a country's trade correctly, deserves research under global value chain.With TiVA(Value-added Trade) database data and SEA(Socio-economic Account) data in WIOD(World Input-Output Database),which OECD and WTO published together, from 1995 to 2014, according to the principle of ownership, the trade benefits of our country under global value chain specialization are estimated. It is recognized that although the Value Added Trade of China is higher than that of the United States, but the Domestic Value Added is still lower than that of the United States. Thereinto, other countries, because of the trade in intermediate goods, enjoy 2/5 of the Value Added Trade of China and capital flows. In high-tech manufacturing industry,taken electronics and optical equipment as an example, the ratio is as high as 7/10. At the same time, decomposed the source of Domestic Value Added of China and United States, China mainly relies on investment for low and medium labor input to gain trade benefits, including the high-tech manufacturing industry, analyzed by electronic and optical equipment, while United States is biased towards capital and high technology labor.
引文
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[14]Wang Zhi,Shang Jin Wei,Kunfu Zhu.Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Level[R].NBER Working Paper No.19677,2013.
[2]Hummels D.,Ishii J.,Kei-Mu Y.The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2001,54(1):75-96.
[3]Johnson,Robert.Five Facts about Value-Added Exports and Implications for Macroeconomics and Trade Research[J].Journal of Economics Perspectives,2014,28(2).
[4]Johnson R.C,Noguera.Accounting for Intermediates:Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added[J].Journal of International Economics,2012,86(2):224-236.
[5]Kee,Hiau L,Tang Heiwai.Domestic Value Added in Exports:Theory and Firm Evidence from China[J].American Economic Review,2016,106(6):1402-1436.
[6]Koopman R,Powers W,Wang Z,&Wei S.J.Give Credit Where Credit Is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains[R].NBERWorking Paper No.16426,2010.
[7]Koopman,Robert,Zhi Wang,Shang-Jin Wei.Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports[J].American Economic Review,2014,104(2):459-94.
[8]Los,Bart,Marcel P.Timmer,Gaaitzen J.de Vries.How Global Are Global Value Chains?A New Approach to Measure International Fragmentation[J].Journal of Regional Science,2015,55(1):66-92.
[9]OECD-WTO.Trade in value-added:Concepts,methodologies and challenges[EB/OL].http://www.oecd.org/sti/industry and globalisation/49894138.pdf.
[10]Stehrer,R.Trade in Value Added and the Value Added in Trade[R].WIOD Working Paper No.8,2012.
[11]Timmer,Marcel P.Abdul Azeez Erumban,Bart Los,Robert Stehrer,Gaaitzen J.de Vries.Slicing up global value chains[J].Journal of E-conomic Perspectives,2014,28(2):99-118.
[12]Trefler D.&Zhu S.The Structure of Factor Content Predictions[R].Journal of International Economics,2010,82(2):195-207.
[13]Wang Z,Powers W,Wei s.Value chains in east Asian production networks-An international input-output model based analysis[EB/OL].http://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/working-papers/EC200910C.pdf.
[14]Wang Zhi,Shang Jin Wei,Kunfu Zhu.Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Level[R].NBER Working Paper No.19677,2013.