社群化、流量分配与电商趋势:对“拼多多”现象的解读
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摘要
文章以近年中国电子商务为研究对象,从电子商务发展的宏观层面出发,以"拼多多"的快速崛起为例,分析讨论了传统电商平台中的"流量困境"及其影响,并以此引出移动电子商务以社群化解决流量分配机制问题的内在机理,之后系统对比传统电商和社群电商之间的差异,结论认为传统电商是社群电商发展的必经过程;社群化是传统电商的重要趋势;社群电商将促进C2B模式的实现。
The article takes China E-commerce as the research object. Starting from the macro level of e-commerce development, taking the rapid rise of "Ping Duoduo" as an example, it analyzes and discusses the "traffic dilemma" and its influence in the traditional e-commerce platform. This leads to the internal mechanism of mobile e-commerce to solve the problem of traffic distribution mechanism by socialization. After that, this study compares the difference between traditional e-commerce and social-commerce systematically, and concludes that traditional e-commerce platform is a necessary process of the development of social-commerce. Social-commerce is an important trend of the development of traditional e-commerce; s-commerce will promote the realization of C2 B model.
The article takes China E-commerce as the research object. Starting from the macro level of e-commerce development, taking the rapid rise of "Ping Duoduo" as an example, it analyzes and discusses the "traffic dilemma" and its influence in the traditional e-commerce platform. This leads to the internal mechanism of mobile e-commerce to solve the problem of traffic distribution mechanism by socialization. After that, this study compares the difference between traditional e-commerce and social-commerce systematically, and concludes that traditional e-commerce platform is a necessary process of the development of social-commerce. Social-commerce is an important trend of the development of traditional e-commerce; s-commerce will promote the realization of C2 B model.
引文
[1]Chia Y L,Ku Y C.The power of a thumbs-up:Will e-commerce switch to social commerce[J].Information & Management,2018,55 (3) :340-357.
[2]Heller K.Return to community[J].American Journal of Community Psychology,1989,17(1),1-15.
[3]阿格妮丝·赫勒.日常生活[M].徐崇温译.重庆:重庆出版社,1990.
[4]Rothaermel F T,Sugiyama S.Virtual internet communities and commercial success:Individual and community-level theory grounded in the atypical case of TimeZone.com[J].Journal of Management,2001 ,27 (3) :297-312.
[5]Gusfield J.The community:A critical response[M].New York:Harper Colophon,1975.
[6]张琼.移动互联网+视域下零售业态演变路径及对策[J].中国流通经济,2016(2):14-19.
[7]刘玉军,杨晔.我国移动电子商务运营模式分析与发展对策研究[J].情报科学,2014(4):122-125.
[8]罗珉,李亮宇.互联网时代的商业模式创新:价值创造视角[J].中国工业经济,2015(1):95-107.
[9]Howard Rheingold.The virtual community:Homesteading on the electronic frontier[M].MIT:Addison Wesley,1993.238-239.
[10]Bowman C,Ambrosini V.Value creation versus value capture:Towards a coherent definition of value in strategy[J].British Journal of Management,2000,11:1-15.
[11]屈冠银,张哲.内容电商发展及运营逻辑思考[J].北京劳动保障职业学院学报,2016(3):33-39.
[12]Li Y M,Wu C T,Lai C Y.A social recommender mechanism for e-commerce:combining similarity,trust,and relationship[J].Decision Support System,2013,55 (3):740-752.
[13]Sinclair J T.eBay:The smartway (2nd ed.) [M].NewYork:AMACOM,2011.
[14]Busalim A H,Hussin A R.C.Understanding social commerce:A systematic literature review and directions for further research[J].International Journal of Information Management,2016,36:1075-1088.
[15]Anderson R H P.Trust development and transfer in social commerce:Prior experience as moderator[J].Industrial Management & Data Systems,2015,31,1012-1030.
[16]Jang H,Ko I,Kim J.The effect of group-buy social commerce and coupon on satisfaction and continuance intention:Focusing on the expectation confirmation model (ECM) [J].Proceedings of the annual hawaii international conference on system sciences,2013,2938-2948.
[17]Chen J,Shen X L.Consumers’ decisions in social commerce context:An empirical investigation[J].Decision Support Systems,2015,79,55-64.
[18]Chen J V,Su B,Chiuan Widjaja A E.Facebook C2C social commerce:A study of online impulse buying[J].Decision Support Systems,2016,83,57-69.
[19]Sashi C M.Customer engagement,buyer-seller relationships,and social media [J].Management Decision,2012,50(2),253-272.
[20]Kim D.Under what conditions will social commerce business models survive?[J].Electronic Commerce Research and Applications,2013,12(2),69-77.
[21]Yu Y,Pelaez A,Lang K R.Designing and evaluating business process models:An experimental approach[J].Information Systems and E-Business Management,2014,52(3):1-23.
[22]Kim S,Park H.Effects of various characteristics of social commerce(s-commerce) on consumers’ trust and trust performance[J].International Journal of Information Manage￣ment,2012,33(2),318-332.
[23]Shanmugam M,Sun S,Amidi A,et al.The applications of social commerce constructs[J].Interna￣tional Journal of Information Management,2016,36(3),425-432.
[24]Liang T P,Ho Y T,Li Y W,et al.What drives social commerce:the role of social support and relationship quality[J].International Journal of Electronic Commerce,2011,16(2),69-90.
[25]Sharma S,Crossler R E.Disclosing too much?Situational factors affecting information disclosure in social commerce environment[J].Electronic Commerce Research and Applications,2014,13(5),305-319.
[26]Afrasiabi Rad A,Benyoucef M.A model for understanding social commerce[J].Journal of Information Systems Applied Research,2011,4(2),1-64.
[27]Baghdadi Y.From e-commerce to social commerce:A framework to guide enabling cloud computing[J].Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research,2013,8(3),12-38.
[28]Liang T P,Turban E.Introduction to the special issue social commerce:A research framework for social commerce[J].International Journal of Electronic Commerce,2011,16(2) ,5-14.
[29]Huang Z,Benyoucef M.From e-commerce to social commerce:A close look at design features[J].Electronic Commerce Research and Applications,2013,12(4),246-259.
[30]Liu L,Cheung C M K,Lee M K O.An empirical investigation of information sharing behavior on social commerce sites[J].International Journal of Information Management,2016,36(5),686-699.
[31]Friedrich T.Analyzing the factors that influence consumers’adoption of social commerce:A literature review[J].Proceeding of twenty-first Americas conference on information systems,2015,34,1-16.
[32]Shanmugam M,Sun S,Amidi A,et al.The applications of social commerce constructs[J].International Journal of Information Management,2016,36(3),425-432.
[33]DeLone W H,McLean E R.Measuring e-commerce success:Applying the DeLone & McLean information systems success model[J].International Journal of Electronic Commerce,2004,9(1):31-47.
[34]徐艟.从社群电商视阙探讨小微企业OTO的商业模式[J].商业经济研究,2015(36):77-79.
[35]Michael Hyatt.Platform:Get noticed in a noisy world[M].Thomas Nelson,2012.
[36]宋斐.阿里3万亿背后是新经济的崛起[EB/OL].阿里研究院,http://www.aliresearch.com/blog/article/detail/id/21003.html2016-07-18.
[37]Hu N ,Liu L,Sambamurthy V.Fraud detection in online consumer reviews[J].Decision Support Systems,2011,50(3):614-626.
[38]Christiansen J K,et al.Living Twice:How a product goes through multiple life cycles[J].Journal of Product Innovation Management,2010,27(6):797-827.
[39]Nambisan S,Baron R A.Interactions in viryual customer environments,implications for product support and customer relationshio management[J].Journal of Interactive Marketing,2007,21(2):42-62.
[40]Kang J Y M,Johnson K K P.How does social commerce work for apparel shopping?Apparel social e-shopping with social network storefronts[J].Journal of Customer Behavor,2013,12 (1) :53-72.
[41]Hajli N,Sims J.Social commerce:The transfer of power from sellers to buyers[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2015,94:350-358.
[42]Yadav M S,de Valck K,Hennig-Thurau T,et al.Social commerce:A contingency framework for assessing marketing potential[J].Journal of Interactive Marketing,2013,27(4),311-323.
[43]姜汝祥,移动电商3.0[M].北京:中信出版社,2016.
[44]孔建平.社群经济——移动互联网时代未来商业驱动力[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2016.
① 姜汝祥(2016)[43]认为,移动电商最大的突破在于强调生活本身就是电商的出发点与归宿,移动电商经营的是生活方式。
② 当然,即使是淘宝天猫这种老牌传统电商平台,也在积极进行社群化,如阿里巴巴在手机淘宝上推出淘宝直播、淘宝头条等,将大量流量向移动端倾斜。这说明了传统电商平台正在试图向社群电商、社群电商转型。
③ 由流量分配机制导致的差异不仅局限于本文所列,由于篇幅所限,仅以这四点为例进行分析。
① 除x=0和x=1之外,也是一个可能的稳定值。我们假定不进行社群化的群体比例为α,则有。可见,传统电商平台社群化决策主要取决于原先的收益R和为此所需付出的成本c。
(1)数字来源:2012的数字来自中国就业促进会,网络就业创业统计与社保研究[R].2013;2017年的数字来自《2018年度中国电子商务人才状况调查报告》。
(2)新浪财经,“报告:2018年全国电子商务交易额将达37.05万亿”,http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bank/bank_hydt/2018-05-29/doc-ihcffhsv1051737.shtml,[EB/OL],2018-05-29。其中2018年为预测值。
(3)同样是突破1000亿GMV,阿里用了10年,京东用了6年,拼多多只用了不到3年。成立不到两年半,拼多多在日订单量已经超越京东,成为中国第二大电子商务平台。
(4)虎嗅网,“拼多多:奇迹背后的矛盾”,https://www.huxiu.com/article/250481,2018-07-02.
(5)笔者分别以“社群电子商务”和“社群电商”为题名在中国知网上进行搜索,仅得到4篇和25篇相关文献,且其中大多数为报刊、杂志文献,专业研究文献少之又少。
(6)PC电商和移动电商,这一对概念强调交易行为发生和依托的技术载体不同;而传统电商和社群电商更强调交易方式和交易关系的不同。
(7)2018年天猫“双十一”同比增长不到27%(低于全国网上零售总额的增速)。于此形成鲜明对比的是,新兴移动社群电商平台飞速增长:云集微店销售额增加259%,拼多多“双十一”同比增加超过300%。数字来源:腾讯科技。
(8)流量概念来自物理学,本意是指单位时间内流经封闭管道或明渠有效截面的流体量。网络经济学和电子商务理论借用此概念来指代特定网络渠道在单位时间内所能获取的访问量,主要包括页面浏览量(Page View,PV)和独立访客量(Unique Visitor,UV)。
(9)数据来自阿里巴巴2016年Q4财报。
(10)2017年7月14日《新京报》头版报道的中国海淘电商平台集体造假事件即是一例,传统电商平台的流量分配机制导致海淘卖家采取成本优先的竞争战略。
(11)从理论和实践上看,新业态初期的乱象并不能作为对商业模式优劣的判断依据。理论上讲,“就主流消费者所关心的产品属性来说,当破坏性技术刚开始出现时,几乎总是提供更低的产品性能……但破坏性技术打开了新市场,并得到了足够的投资,(它)总是能够提高其产品的性能,并最终能够占领原来的市场”。同样,从中国电子商务的实践上看,今天已经成为电商巨头的阿里巴巴,淘宝网发展初期的乱象也并不妨碍它成为一家伟大的公司。
(12)这种方式和传统电商的引流方式一样,都是试图以简单、粗暴的方式从外部流量导入资源。显然,这种方式在移动端社交平台上根本行不通。
(13)这种草根企业的例子还有很多,如红宝书、小小包麻麻等。
[2]Heller K.Return to community[J].American Journal of Community Psychology,1989,17(1),1-15.
[3]阿格妮丝·赫勒.日常生活[M].徐崇温译.重庆:重庆出版社,1990.
[4]Rothaermel F T,Sugiyama S.Virtual internet communities and commercial success:Individual and community-level theory grounded in the atypical case of TimeZone.com[J].Journal of Management,2001 ,27 (3) :297-312.
[5]Gusfield J.The community:A critical response[M].New York:Harper Colophon,1975.
[6]张琼.移动互联网+视域下零售业态演变路径及对策[J].中国流通经济,2016(2):14-19.
[7]刘玉军,杨晔.我国移动电子商务运营模式分析与发展对策研究[J].情报科学,2014(4):122-125.
[8]罗珉,李亮宇.互联网时代的商业模式创新:价值创造视角[J].中国工业经济,2015(1):95-107.
[9]Howard Rheingold.The virtual community:Homesteading on the electronic frontier[M].MIT:Addison Wesley,1993.238-239.
[10]Bowman C,Ambrosini V.Value creation versus value capture:Towards a coherent definition of value in strategy[J].British Journal of Management,2000,11:1-15.
[11]屈冠银,张哲.内容电商发展及运营逻辑思考[J].北京劳动保障职业学院学报,2016(3):33-39.
[12]Li Y M,Wu C T,Lai C Y.A social recommender mechanism for e-commerce:combining similarity,trust,and relationship[J].Decision Support System,2013,55 (3):740-752.
[13]Sinclair J T.eBay:The smartway (2nd ed.) [M].NewYork:AMACOM,2011.
[14]Busalim A H,Hussin A R.C.Understanding social commerce:A systematic literature review and directions for further research[J].International Journal of Information Management,2016,36:1075-1088.
[15]Anderson R H P.Trust development and transfer in social commerce:Prior experience as moderator[J].Industrial Management & Data Systems,2015,31,1012-1030.
[16]Jang H,Ko I,Kim J.The effect of group-buy social commerce and coupon on satisfaction and continuance intention:Focusing on the expectation confirmation model (ECM) [J].Proceedings of the annual hawaii international conference on system sciences,2013,2938-2948.
[17]Chen J,Shen X L.Consumers’ decisions in social commerce context:An empirical investigation[J].Decision Support Systems,2015,79,55-64.
[18]Chen J V,Su B,Chiuan Widjaja A E.Facebook C2C social commerce:A study of online impulse buying[J].Decision Support Systems,2016,83,57-69.
[19]Sashi C M.Customer engagement,buyer-seller relationships,and social media [J].Management Decision,2012,50(2),253-272.
[20]Kim D.Under what conditions will social commerce business models survive?[J].Electronic Commerce Research and Applications,2013,12(2),69-77.
[21]Yu Y,Pelaez A,Lang K R.Designing and evaluating business process models:An experimental approach[J].Information Systems and E-Business Management,2014,52(3):1-23.
[22]Kim S,Park H.Effects of various characteristics of social commerce(s-commerce) on consumers’ trust and trust performance[J].International Journal of Information Manage￣ment,2012,33(2),318-332.
[23]Shanmugam M,Sun S,Amidi A,et al.The applications of social commerce constructs[J].Interna￣tional Journal of Information Management,2016,36(3),425-432.
[24]Liang T P,Ho Y T,Li Y W,et al.What drives social commerce:the role of social support and relationship quality[J].International Journal of Electronic Commerce,2011,16(2),69-90.
[25]Sharma S,Crossler R E.Disclosing too much?Situational factors affecting information disclosure in social commerce environment[J].Electronic Commerce Research and Applications,2014,13(5),305-319.
[26]Afrasiabi Rad A,Benyoucef M.A model for understanding social commerce[J].Journal of Information Systems Applied Research,2011,4(2),1-64.
[27]Baghdadi Y.From e-commerce to social commerce:A framework to guide enabling cloud computing[J].Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research,2013,8(3),12-38.
[28]Liang T P,Turban E.Introduction to the special issue social commerce:A research framework for social commerce[J].International Journal of Electronic Commerce,2011,16(2) ,5-14.
[29]Huang Z,Benyoucef M.From e-commerce to social commerce:A close look at design features[J].Electronic Commerce Research and Applications,2013,12(4),246-259.
[30]Liu L,Cheung C M K,Lee M K O.An empirical investigation of information sharing behavior on social commerce sites[J].International Journal of Information Management,2016,36(5),686-699.
[31]Friedrich T.Analyzing the factors that influence consumers’adoption of social commerce:A literature review[J].Proceeding of twenty-first Americas conference on information systems,2015,34,1-16.
[32]Shanmugam M,Sun S,Amidi A,et al.The applications of social commerce constructs[J].International Journal of Information Management,2016,36(3),425-432.
[33]DeLone W H,McLean E R.Measuring e-commerce success:Applying the DeLone & McLean information systems success model[J].International Journal of Electronic Commerce,2004,9(1):31-47.
[34]徐艟.从社群电商视阙探讨小微企业OTO的商业模式[J].商业经济研究,2015(36):77-79.
[35]Michael Hyatt.Platform:Get noticed in a noisy world[M].Thomas Nelson,2012.
[36]宋斐.阿里3万亿背后是新经济的崛起[EB/OL].阿里研究院,http://www.aliresearch.com/blog/article/detail/id/21003.html2016-07-18.
[37]Hu N ,Liu L,Sambamurthy V.Fraud detection in online consumer reviews[J].Decision Support Systems,2011,50(3):614-626.
[38]Christiansen J K,et al.Living Twice:How a product goes through multiple life cycles[J].Journal of Product Innovation Management,2010,27(6):797-827.
[39]Nambisan S,Baron R A.Interactions in viryual customer environments,implications for product support and customer relationshio management[J].Journal of Interactive Marketing,2007,21(2):42-62.
[40]Kang J Y M,Johnson K K P.How does social commerce work for apparel shopping?Apparel social e-shopping with social network storefronts[J].Journal of Customer Behavor,2013,12 (1) :53-72.
[41]Hajli N,Sims J.Social commerce:The transfer of power from sellers to buyers[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2015,94:350-358.
[42]Yadav M S,de Valck K,Hennig-Thurau T,et al.Social commerce:A contingency framework for assessing marketing potential[J].Journal of Interactive Marketing,2013,27(4),311-323.
[43]姜汝祥,移动电商3.0[M].北京:中信出版社,2016.
[44]孔建平.社群经济——移动互联网时代未来商业驱动力[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2016.
① 姜汝祥(2016)[43]认为,移动电商最大的突破在于强调生活本身就是电商的出发点与归宿,移动电商经营的是生活方式。
② 当然,即使是淘宝天猫这种老牌传统电商平台,也在积极进行社群化,如阿里巴巴在手机淘宝上推出淘宝直播、淘宝头条等,将大量流量向移动端倾斜。这说明了传统电商平台正在试图向社群电商、社群电商转型。
③ 由流量分配机制导致的差异不仅局限于本文所列,由于篇幅所限,仅以这四点为例进行分析。
① 除x=0和x=1之外,也是一个可能的稳定值。我们假定不进行社群化的群体比例为α,则有。可见,传统电商平台社群化决策主要取决于原先的收益R和为此所需付出的成本c。
(1)数字来源:2012的数字来自中国就业促进会,网络就业创业统计与社保研究[R].2013;2017年的数字来自《2018年度中国电子商务人才状况调查报告》。
(2)新浪财经,“报告:2018年全国电子商务交易额将达37.05万亿”,http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bank/bank_hydt/2018-05-29/doc-ihcffhsv1051737.shtml,[EB/OL],2018-05-29。其中2018年为预测值。
(3)同样是突破1000亿GMV,阿里用了10年,京东用了6年,拼多多只用了不到3年。成立不到两年半,拼多多在日订单量已经超越京东,成为中国第二大电子商务平台。
(4)虎嗅网,“拼多多:奇迹背后的矛盾”,https://www.huxiu.com/article/250481,2018-07-02.
(5)笔者分别以“社群电子商务”和“社群电商”为题名在中国知网上进行搜索,仅得到4篇和25篇相关文献,且其中大多数为报刊、杂志文献,专业研究文献少之又少。
(6)PC电商和移动电商,这一对概念强调交易行为发生和依托的技术载体不同;而传统电商和社群电商更强调交易方式和交易关系的不同。
(7)2018年天猫“双十一”同比增长不到27%(低于全国网上零售总额的增速)。于此形成鲜明对比的是,新兴移动社群电商平台飞速增长:云集微店销售额增加259%,拼多多“双十一”同比增加超过300%。数字来源:腾讯科技。
(8)流量概念来自物理学,本意是指单位时间内流经封闭管道或明渠有效截面的流体量。网络经济学和电子商务理论借用此概念来指代特定网络渠道在单位时间内所能获取的访问量,主要包括页面浏览量(Page View,PV)和独立访客量(Unique Visitor,UV)。
(9)数据来自阿里巴巴2016年Q4财报。
(10)2017年7月14日《新京报》头版报道的中国海淘电商平台集体造假事件即是一例,传统电商平台的流量分配机制导致海淘卖家采取成本优先的竞争战略。
(11)从理论和实践上看,新业态初期的乱象并不能作为对商业模式优劣的判断依据。理论上讲,“就主流消费者所关心的产品属性来说,当破坏性技术刚开始出现时,几乎总是提供更低的产品性能……但破坏性技术打开了新市场,并得到了足够的投资,(它)总是能够提高其产品的性能,并最终能够占领原来的市场”。同样,从中国电子商务的实践上看,今天已经成为电商巨头的阿里巴巴,淘宝网发展初期的乱象也并不妨碍它成为一家伟大的公司。
(12)这种方式和传统电商的引流方式一样,都是试图以简单、粗暴的方式从外部流量导入资源。显然,这种方式在移动端社交平台上根本行不通。
(13)这种草根企业的例子还有很多,如红宝书、小小包麻麻等。