中国农产品出口丝绸之路经济带沿线国家的影响因素及贸易效率——基于随机前沿引力模型的分析
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摘要
本文基于时变随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型实证分析2002—2016年中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家农产品出口的影响因素及贸易效率,结果表明:中国与贸易伙伴的GDP、地理位置相邻等变量显著推动了中国农产品对其出口规模;人口数量、内陆国等变量显著阻碍了中国农产品的出口;贸易非效率项的存在制约了中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家农产品的出口额,其中贸易双边较高的经济自由度可显著降低贸易非效率项,制度距离、农产品贸易成本对贸易效率水平的提高有显著的阻碍作用;从变动趋势来看,中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家农产品的出口效率波动上升。因此为提高中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家的农产品出口规模及贸易效率,应扩大农产品供给、加强双边交流合作、增强政治互信、提高农产品贸易便利化水平。
Based on stochastic frontier model and trade inefficiency model,this paper empirically analyzed the influencing factors and trade efficiency of China's agricultural products export to the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2002 to 2016.The results show that factors of GDP and geographical proximity significantly promote the export of China's agricultural products while population and landlocked countries have inhibitory effects. Trade inefficiency also inhibits the amount of China's agricultural products export. The high degree of economic freedom can significantly reduce trade inefficiencies,while institutional distances and trade costs of agricultural products significantly hinder the improvement of trade efficiency. From the trend we can see China's export efficiency of agricultural products to the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt has a rising tendency evidently. These results imply that in order to increase China's agricultural products export scale and trade efficiency,it is necessary to expand the supply of agricultural products,further strengthen bilateral cooperation,enhance mutual trust,and increase the trade facilitation of agricultural products.
Based on stochastic frontier model and trade inefficiency model,this paper empirically analyzed the influencing factors and trade efficiency of China's agricultural products export to the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2002 to 2016.The results show that factors of GDP and geographical proximity significantly promote the export of China's agricultural products while population and landlocked countries have inhibitory effects. Trade inefficiency also inhibits the amount of China's agricultural products export. The high degree of economic freedom can significantly reduce trade inefficiencies,while institutional distances and trade costs of agricultural products significantly hinder the improvement of trade efficiency. From the trend we can see China's export efficiency of agricultural products to the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt has a rising tendency evidently. These results imply that in order to increase China's agricultural products export scale and trade efficiency,it is necessary to expand the supply of agricultural products,further strengthen bilateral cooperation,enhance mutual trust,and increase the trade facilitation of agricultural products.
引文
[1]高志刚,王彦芳,刘伟.丝绸之路经济带背景下中国-欧亚经济联盟自贸区建设研究[J].国际贸易问题,2017(5):80-90.
[2]ANDERSON J.A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation[J].The American Economic Review,1979,69(1):106-116.
[3]KRUGMAN P.Increasing Returns,Monopolistic Competition,and International Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,1979,9(4):469-479.
[4]HELPMAN E.Imperfect Competition and International Trade:Evidence from Fourteen Industrial Countries[J].Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,1987,1(1):62-81.
[5]DEARDORFF A.Determinants of Bilateral Trade:Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?[R].NBER Working Paper Series,1995:5377.
[6]ANDERSON J,VAN WINCOOP E.Gravity with Gravitas a Solution to the Border Puzzle[J].The American Economic Review,2003,93(1),170-192.
[7]贾伟,屈四喜.中国各省份-东盟农产品贸易增长的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2012(3):25-34.
[8]丁剑平,刘敏.中欧双边贸易的规模效应研究:一个引力模型的扩展应用[J].世界经济,2016,39(6):100-123.
[9]张萌,张宗毅.我国农机产品出口贸易流量及潜力——基于引力模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2015(6):148-154.
[10]周念利.基于引力模型的中国双边服务贸易流量与出口潜力研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,27(12):67-79.
[11]鲁晓东,赵奇伟.中国的出口潜力及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,27(10):21-35.
[12]文淑惠,张昕.中南半岛贸易潜力及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2017(10):97-108.
[13]CHEPTEA A.Trade Liberalization and Institutional Reforms[J].Economics of Transition,2007,15(2):211-255.
[14]LVAREZ I C,BARBERO J,RODRGUEZ-POSE A,ZOFO J L.Does Institutional Quality Matter for Trade?Institutional Conditions in a Sectoral Trade Framework[J].World Development,2018(103):72-87.
[15]黄玖立,周泽平.多维度距离下的中国文化产品贸易[J].产业经济研究,2015(5):93-100.
[16]邱斌,唐保庆,孙少勤,等.要素禀赋、制度红利与新型出口比较优势[J].经济研究,2014(8):107-119.
[17]潘镇,殷华方,鲁明泓.制度距离对于外资企业绩效的影响——一项基于生存分析的实证研究[J].管理世界,2008(7):103-115.
[18]AIGNER D,LOVELL K,SCHMIDT P.Formulation and Estimation of Stochastic Frontier Production Function Models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1977,6(1):21-37.
[19]ARMSTRONG S.Measuring Trade and Trade Potential:A Survey[J].Asia Pacific Economic Paper,2007(368):1-17.
[20]黄新飞,舒元,徐裕敏.制度距离与跨国收入差距[J].经济研究,2013(9):4-16.
[21]KOGUT B,SINGH H.The Effect of National Culture on the Choice of Entry Mode[J].Journal of International Business Studies,1988,19(3):411-432.
[22]魏浩,李晓庆.中国进口贸易的技术结构及其影响因素研究[J].世界经济,2015,38(8):56-79.
[23]师博,单豪杰.重叠需求、能源禀赋与双边贸易成本——基于上海合作组织的经验分析[J].世界经济研究,2012(4):41-45+88.
(1)农产品包括HS92分类标准下01-24章所包含的农产品及2905,3301,35,3809,3823,4101,4102,4103,4301,5001,5002,5003,5101,5102,5103,5105,5201,5202,5203,5301,5302。
(1)为避免因为价格及汇率变动对数据造成的影响,运用平减指数对名义出口额进行处理,采用2010年不变美元计算得到中国对各国实际农产品出口额。
(2)政治制度及其实施特征指标包括:公民权利、政治和社会安定、政府效率、社会监管质量、法律法规和对腐败的控制。经济制度及其实施特征包括:产权保护指数、商业自由度指数、贸易自由度指数、财政自由度指数、政府对经济的干预程度、货币自由度指数、投资自由度指数和金融自由度指数。k
(3)制度距离的计算公式为:ID_(ijt)=■[(R_(imt)-R_(jmt))~2/v_m]/k,其中,ID_(ijt)表示t期i、j两国之间的制度距=1vm,其中,离,R_(imt)和R_(jmt)分别表示t期i国、j国第m个指标的数值,νm表示第m个指标的方差,k为所测度指标的个数。
[2]ANDERSON J.A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation[J].The American Economic Review,1979,69(1):106-116.
[3]KRUGMAN P.Increasing Returns,Monopolistic Competition,and International Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,1979,9(4):469-479.
[4]HELPMAN E.Imperfect Competition and International Trade:Evidence from Fourteen Industrial Countries[J].Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,1987,1(1):62-81.
[5]DEARDORFF A.Determinants of Bilateral Trade:Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?[R].NBER Working Paper Series,1995:5377.
[6]ANDERSON J,VAN WINCOOP E.Gravity with Gravitas a Solution to the Border Puzzle[J].The American Economic Review,2003,93(1),170-192.
[7]贾伟,屈四喜.中国各省份-东盟农产品贸易增长的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2012(3):25-34.
[8]丁剑平,刘敏.中欧双边贸易的规模效应研究:一个引力模型的扩展应用[J].世界经济,2016,39(6):100-123.
[9]张萌,张宗毅.我国农机产品出口贸易流量及潜力——基于引力模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2015(6):148-154.
[10]周念利.基于引力模型的中国双边服务贸易流量与出口潜力研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,27(12):67-79.
[11]鲁晓东,赵奇伟.中国的出口潜力及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,27(10):21-35.
[12]文淑惠,张昕.中南半岛贸易潜力及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2017(10):97-108.
[13]CHEPTEA A.Trade Liberalization and Institutional Reforms[J].Economics of Transition,2007,15(2):211-255.
[14]LVAREZ I C,BARBERO J,RODRGUEZ-POSE A,ZOFO J L.Does Institutional Quality Matter for Trade?Institutional Conditions in a Sectoral Trade Framework[J].World Development,2018(103):72-87.
[15]黄玖立,周泽平.多维度距离下的中国文化产品贸易[J].产业经济研究,2015(5):93-100.
[16]邱斌,唐保庆,孙少勤,等.要素禀赋、制度红利与新型出口比较优势[J].经济研究,2014(8):107-119.
[17]潘镇,殷华方,鲁明泓.制度距离对于外资企业绩效的影响——一项基于生存分析的实证研究[J].管理世界,2008(7):103-115.
[18]AIGNER D,LOVELL K,SCHMIDT P.Formulation and Estimation of Stochastic Frontier Production Function Models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1977,6(1):21-37.
[19]ARMSTRONG S.Measuring Trade and Trade Potential:A Survey[J].Asia Pacific Economic Paper,2007(368):1-17.
[20]黄新飞,舒元,徐裕敏.制度距离与跨国收入差距[J].经济研究,2013(9):4-16.
[21]KOGUT B,SINGH H.The Effect of National Culture on the Choice of Entry Mode[J].Journal of International Business Studies,1988,19(3):411-432.
[22]魏浩,李晓庆.中国进口贸易的技术结构及其影响因素研究[J].世界经济,2015,38(8):56-79.
[23]师博,单豪杰.重叠需求、能源禀赋与双边贸易成本——基于上海合作组织的经验分析[J].世界经济研究,2012(4):41-45+88.
(1)农产品包括HS92分类标准下01-24章所包含的农产品及2905,3301,35,3809,3823,4101,4102,4103,4301,5001,5002,5003,5101,5102,5103,5105,5201,5202,5203,5301,5302。
(1)为避免因为价格及汇率变动对数据造成的影响,运用平减指数对名义出口额进行处理,采用2010年不变美元计算得到中国对各国实际农产品出口额。
(2)政治制度及其实施特征指标包括:公民权利、政治和社会安定、政府效率、社会监管质量、法律法规和对腐败的控制。经济制度及其实施特征包括:产权保护指数、商业自由度指数、贸易自由度指数、财政自由度指数、政府对经济的干预程度、货币自由度指数、投资自由度指数和金融自由度指数。k
(3)制度距离的计算公式为:ID_(ijt)=■[(R_(imt)-R_(jmt))~2/v_m]/k,其中,ID_(ijt)表示t期i、j两国之间的制度距=1vm,其中,离,R_(imt)和R_(jmt)分别表示t期i国、j国第m个指标的数值,νm表示第m个指标的方差,k为所测度指标的个数。