利用高分辨率气候模式对湖北未来气候变化的模拟与预估
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摘要
利用高分辨率区域气候模式CCLM对湖北省降水和气温的模拟数据,对比分析了基准期(1961~2005年)的模拟结果和同期CN05.1的观测数据,并对RCP4.5情景下的未来(2006~2050年)气候进行了年尺度和季节尺度的预估。结果表明:(1)CCLM区域气候模式较好地模拟了湖北气温的演变趋势及其空间分布格局,对降水的时空波动模拟与同期CN05.1在降水时空变化上的匹配度较弱;(2)RCP4.5情景下,2006~2050年湖北T、T_(min)、T_(max)呈上升趋势。四季气温呈一致上升的趋势,冬季的上升速度最快,对年尺度上T、T_(min)、T_(max)上升的趋势贡献最大。(3)RCP4.5情景下,2006~2050年湖北T、T_(min)、T_(max)呈全区一致上升的格局。其中增幅最大的区域均集中于汉江湖北段北部。春季T、T_(min)、T_(max)增温大值区位于西北山地区;夏季中部平原区T、T_(min)、T_(max)相较于其他区域增幅较大;秋季西南山地区T和T_(max)较其他区域增温较高,T_(min)的增温大值区位于汉江湖北段北部;冬季鄂东南丘陵T相较于其他区域增幅较大,汉江湖北段北部T_(min)增温较大,西南山地T_(max)增温较大。
Based on the comparative analysis between the simulation data from the high-resolution regional climate model(CCLM) and the CN05.1 data based on the observation in the reference period(1961–2005), we conducted projections on future climate change under the scenario of RCP4.5 at both annual and seasonal scales for the Hubei Province. The results showed:(1)CCLM presented a satisfactory simulation performance on the changing trend of temperature and its spatial distribution pattern, but was not matched very well with the CN05.1 observation precipitation data.(2)Under the RCP4.5,from 2006 to 2050, T, T_(min) and T_(max) in Hubei Province show a rising trend. The temperature is projected to be rising in all four seasons, while the winter has the fastest increase and the greatest contribution to the rise of annual T, T_(min) as well as T_(max).(3)Under the RCP4.5, in the period of 2006–2050, T, T_(min) and T_(max) will increase in the whole region compared to the reference period. The region with the high increase of temperature is located in the northern part of Hubei section of Han River. In spring, the regions with high increase of temperature are located in northwestern mountain area. In summer, the increase of T, T_(min) and T_(max) in the middle plain region is higher than other regions. In fall, the increase of T and T_(max) in southwestern mountain region is higher than that in other regions. The regions with high increase of T_(min) are located in the northern part of Hubei section of Han River. In winter, the increase of T in hilly regions of southeastern Hubei is higher than that in other regions, the same for the T_(min) in north part of north section of Han River and T_(max) in southwestern mountain region.
Based on the comparative analysis between the simulation data from the high-resolution regional climate model(CCLM) and the CN05.1 data based on the observation in the reference period(1961–2005), we conducted projections on future climate change under the scenario of RCP4.5 at both annual and seasonal scales for the Hubei Province. The results showed:(1)CCLM presented a satisfactory simulation performance on the changing trend of temperature and its spatial distribution pattern, but was not matched very well with the CN05.1 observation precipitation data.(2)Under the RCP4.5,from 2006 to 2050, T, T_(min) and T_(max) in Hubei Province show a rising trend. The temperature is projected to be rising in all four seasons, while the winter has the fastest increase and the greatest contribution to the rise of annual T, T_(min) as well as T_(max).(3)Under the RCP4.5, in the period of 2006–2050, T, T_(min) and T_(max) will increase in the whole region compared to the reference period. The region with the high increase of temperature is located in the northern part of Hubei section of Han River. In spring, the regions with high increase of temperature are located in northwestern mountain area. In summer, the increase of T, T_(min) and T_(max) in the middle plain region is higher than other regions. In fall, the increase of T and T_(max) in southwestern mountain region is higher than that in other regions. The regions with high increase of T_(min) are located in the northern part of Hubei section of Han River. In winter, the increase of T in hilly regions of southeastern Hubei is higher than that in other regions, the same for the T_(min) in north part of north section of Han River and T_(max) in southwestern mountain region.
引文
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[14]易灵伟,杨爱萍,刘文英,等.湖北中稻气候适宜度指标构建及其对产量影响的定量评估与应用[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(23):109-115.[YI L W,YANG A P,LIU W Y,et al.Index construction of climatic suitability on middle-season rice in Hubei Province and quantitative evaluation and application of its effect on yield[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(23):109-115.]
[15]冯明,纪昌明,王丽萍,等.气候变化及其对湖北长江水文水资源的影响[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2006,39(1):1-5,25.[FENG M,JI C M,WANG L P,et al.Study on impact of climatic change on hydrology and water resources of Yangtze River reaches in Hubei Province[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2006,39(1):1-5,25.]
[16]王绍武,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.新一代温室气体排放情景[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(4):305-307.[WANG S W,LUO Y,ZHAO Z C,et al.New generation of scenarios of greenhouse gas emission[J].Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis,2012,8(4):305-307.]
[17]吴佳,高学杰.一套格点化的中国区域逐日观测资料及与其它资料的对比[J].地球物理学报,2013,56(4):1102-1111.[WU J,GAO X J.A gridded daily observation dataset over China region and comparison with the other datasets[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2013,56(4):1102-1111.]
[18]汪高明.湖北省近47年气温和降水气候特征分析[D].兰州:兰州大学硕士学位论文,2009.[WANG G M.Analysis on climatic characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Hubei Province in recent 47 years[D].Lanzhou:Master Dissertation of Lanzhou University,2009.]
[2]LI C B,QI J G,YANG L S,et al.Regional vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change-a case study in the Tao River Basin in Northwestern China[J].Environmental Research Letters,2014,9(12):125003.
[3]IPCC.Climate Change 2013:The physical science basis.Contribution of working groupⅠto the Fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[R].Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,USA:Cambridge University Press,2013:89.
[4]刘鸿波,张大林,王斌.区域气候模拟研究及其应用进展[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(5):649-668.[LIU H B,ZHANG D L,WANG B.Recent advances in regional climate modeling and applications[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2006,11(5):649-668.]
[5]钟军,苏布达,翟建青,等.中国日降水的分布特征和未来变化[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(2):89-95.[ZHONG J,SU B D,ZHAI J Q,et al.Distribution characteristics and future trends of daily precipitation in China[J].Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis,2013,9(2):89-95.]
[6]陶辉,黄金龙,翟建青,等.长江流域气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(4):246-251.[TAO H,HUANG J L,ZHAI J Q,et al.Simulation and projection of climate changes under the RCP4.5 scenario in the Yangtze River Basin based on CCLM[J].Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis,2013,9(4):246-251.]
[7]高超,张正涛,陈实,等.RCP4.5情景下淮河流域气候变化的高分辨率模拟[J].地理研究,2014,33(3):467-477.[GAO C,ZHANG Z T,CHEN S,et al.The high-resolution simulation of climate change model under RCP4.5 scenarios in the Huaihe River Basin[J].Geographical Research,2014,33(3):467-477.]
[8]FISCHER T,MENZ C,SU B D,et al.Simulated and projected climate extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin,South China,using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM[J].International Journal of Climatology,2013,33(14):2988-3001.
[9]黄金龙,陶辉,苏布达,等.塔里木河流域极端气候事件模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估研究[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(3):490-498.[HUANG J L,TAO H,SU B D,et al.Simulation of climate extreme events in the Tarim River Basin and projection under the RCP4.5scenario[J].Arid Land Geography,2014,37(3):490-498.]
[10]朱娴韵,苏布达,黄金龙,等.云南气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景预估[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(3):476-481.[ZHU X Y,SU B D,HUANG J L,et al.Simulation of climatic change in Yunnan Province and RCP4.5 scenario projected trend by CCLM[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2015,24(3):476-481.]
[11]潘家华,赵行姝,陈正洪,等.湖北省应对气候变化的方案分析与政策含义[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(5):309-314.[PAN J H,ZHAO X S,CHEN Z H,et al.Provincial climate change program:Hubei case study and its policy implications[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2008,4(5):309-314.]
[12]许自成,黎妍妍,毕庆文,等.湖北烟区烤烟气候适生性评价及与国外烟区的相似性分析[J].生态学报,2008,28(8):3832-3838.[XU Z C,LI Y Y,BI Q W,et al.Evaluation on climatic feasibility of tobacco-growing areas in Hubei and its similarity to that of foreign tobacco-growing area[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2008,28(8):3832-3838.]
[13]李晓冬,杜耘,吴胜军,等.湖北作物气候生产力演变及其对气候变化的响应[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2009,25(3):294-298.[LI X D,DU Y,WU S J,et al.Evolvement and effects of climateproductivity on climate change in Hubei Province[J].System Sciences and Comprehensive Studies in Agriculture,2009,25(3):294-298.]
[14]易灵伟,杨爱萍,刘文英,等.湖北中稻气候适宜度指标构建及其对产量影响的定量评估与应用[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(23):109-115.[YI L W,YANG A P,LIU W Y,et al.Index construction of climatic suitability on middle-season rice in Hubei Province and quantitative evaluation and application of its effect on yield[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(23):109-115.]
[15]冯明,纪昌明,王丽萍,等.气候变化及其对湖北长江水文水资源的影响[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2006,39(1):1-5,25.[FENG M,JI C M,WANG L P,et al.Study on impact of climatic change on hydrology and water resources of Yangtze River reaches in Hubei Province[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2006,39(1):1-5,25.]
[16]王绍武,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.新一代温室气体排放情景[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(4):305-307.[WANG S W,LUO Y,ZHAO Z C,et al.New generation of scenarios of greenhouse gas emission[J].Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis,2012,8(4):305-307.]
[17]吴佳,高学杰.一套格点化的中国区域逐日观测资料及与其它资料的对比[J].地球物理学报,2013,56(4):1102-1111.[WU J,GAO X J.A gridded daily observation dataset over China region and comparison with the other datasets[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2013,56(4):1102-1111.]
[18]汪高明.湖北省近47年气温和降水气候特征分析[D].兰州:兰州大学硕士学位论文,2009.[WANG G M.Analysis on climatic characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Hubei Province in recent 47 years[D].Lanzhou:Master Dissertation of Lanzhou University,2009.]