农业气候年景评估指数构建及在江汉平原的应用
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摘要
基于分层指标构建综合评估指数是开展气象服务的基础和主要手段之一。从农业气候资源优劣和农业气象灾害发生程度两个方面,基于气候适宜度和气象灾害指标分别构建指标体系,并采用百分位数进行等级划分,建立了农业气候年景评估综合指数。以江汉平原为例,从气候变化背景下的农业气候年景趋势演变,以及任意年份农业气候年景等级评定,展示了农业气候年景评估指标体系在业务服务中的应用。结果表明:该指标体系能够客观反映农业气候年景的年际差异以及气候变化背景下的演变特征,内涵丰富且物理意义明确,便于公众理解和服务宣传,可以满足农业气象及生态气象服务的需求。
Construction of a comprehensive evaluation index based on hierarchical indicators is important for meteorological services. Taking into consideration the degree of agroclimatological resources and agrometeorological disasters, a general framework and comprehensive index for the assessment of agroclimatic patterns by year was proposed based on the climate suitability functions and agrometeorological disaster indices; a division was made according to percentiles. The proposed index was then applied to a case study in the Jianghan Plain, demonstrating the potential for a long-term climate change assessment and ranking of the patterns for each specific year. Results showed that the comprehensive index reflected the interannual variability of agroclimatic conditions, as well as the temporal trends in the background of climate change. With a relatively comprehensive content and sound physical basis, the indicator system was convenient for public understanding, and thus could meet the needs of agricultural and ecological meteorology operations.
Construction of a comprehensive evaluation index based on hierarchical indicators is important for meteorological services. Taking into consideration the degree of agroclimatological resources and agrometeorological disasters, a general framework and comprehensive index for the assessment of agroclimatic patterns by year was proposed based on the climate suitability functions and agrometeorological disaster indices; a division was made according to percentiles. The proposed index was then applied to a case study in the Jianghan Plain, demonstrating the potential for a long-term climate change assessment and ranking of the patterns for each specific year. Results showed that the comprehensive index reflected the interannual variability of agroclimatic conditions, as well as the temporal trends in the background of climate change. With a relatively comprehensive content and sound physical basis, the indicator system was convenient for public understanding, and thus could meet the needs of agricultural and ecological meteorology operations.
引文
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[15]秦鹏程,刘敏,李兰.有效降水指数在暴雨洪涝监测和评估中的应用.中国农业气象, 2016, 37(1):84-90.
[16]秦鹏程,刘志雄,万素琴,等.基于权重湿润指数的作物湿渍害监测与检验.长江流域资源与环境, 2018, 27(2):328-334.
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[21]徐敏,徐经纬,高苹,等.基于海温和大气环流特征量的农业气候年景预测.江苏农业科学, 2016, 44(9):435-439.
[22]魏丽,陆叔鸣.农业气候年景预测和决策服务系统的研究.应用气象学报, 1997, 8(2):97-102.
[2]王建林,太华杰.棉花年景评价方法.气象, 1997, 23(4):25-28.
[3]娄秀荣,侯英雨.全国晚稻气候年景评价方法研究.气象,2003,29(2):21-25.
[4]孙家民,黄朝迎.中国农业气候年景的评估及预测.应用气象学报, 2005, 16(S1):111-115.
[5]吴义城,倪国裕,刘敏.湖北省中稻年景与旱涝灾害.湖北气象,1995, 14(3):13-15.
[6]刘敏,吴义城,柯怡明,等.湖北省春夏旱涝特征对早稻年景的影响.湖北气象, 1995, 14(3):10-12.
[7]吴义城,袁业畅,任耀武,等.农业气候影响评价:农作物气候年型划分方法GB/T 21986—2008:北京:中国标准出版社, 2008:1-6.
[8]王胜,田红,党修伍,等.安徽淮北平原冬小麦气候适宜度分析及作物年景评估.气候变化研究进展, 2017, 13(3):253-261.
[9]易灵伟,杨爱萍,刘文英,等.湖北中稻气候适宜度指标构建及其对产量影响的定量评估与应用.中国农学通报, 2015, 31(23):109-115.
[10]张建军,陈晓艺,马晓群.安徽油菜气候适宜度评价指标的建立与应用.中国农学通报, 2012, 28(13):155-158.
[11]黄淑娥,田俊,吴慧峻.江西省双季水稻生长季气候适宜度评价分析.中国农业气象, 2012, 33(4):527-533.
[12]魏瑞江,宋迎波,王鑫.基于气候适宜度的玉米产量动态预报方法.应用气象学报, 2009, 20(5):622-627.
[13]Lu E. Determining the start, duration, and strength of flood and drought with daily precipitation:Rationale. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(12):L12707.
[14]秦鹏程,刘敏.气象干旱诊断评估方法及其在长江中下游地区的应用.长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(11):1969-1976.
[15]秦鹏程,刘敏,李兰.有效降水指数在暴雨洪涝监测和评估中的应用.中国农业气象, 2016, 37(1):84-90.
[16]秦鹏程,刘志雄,万素琴,等.基于权重湿润指数的作物湿渍害监测与检验.长江流域资源与环境, 2018, 27(2):328-334.
[17]崔讲学.湖北省公共气象服务手册.北京:气象出版社, 2014:1-256.
[18]吴义城,杨文刚,黄永学,等.倒春寒气象指标GB/T 34816-2017:北京:中国标准出版社, 2017:1-6.
[19]毛留喜,魏丽.大宗作物气象服务手册.北京:气象出版社, 2015.
[20]符琳.东北三省农业气候年景评估研究.北京:中国气象科学研究院学位论文. 2011.
[21]徐敏,徐经纬,高苹,等.基于海温和大气环流特征量的农业气候年景预测.江苏农业科学, 2016, 44(9):435-439.
[22]魏丽,陆叔鸣.农业气候年景预测和决策服务系统的研究.应用气象学报, 1997, 8(2):97-102.