近40年海南岛冷冬气候特征及其成因分析
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摘要
利用海南岛17个市、县近40年气象观测站逐月气温观测资料,参照《暖冬等级》国家标准,对海南岛异常冷冬事件的时空分布规律进行了分析。在此基础上,利用国家气候中心提供的74项环流指数以及1977—2017年NCEP/NCAR全球再分析格点资料、NOAA ERSST全球海表温度格点资料以及Nino3. 4指数和AO指数,对海南岛冷冬事件形成机制进行了研究。结果表明:海南岛冬季平均气温存在明显的年代际变化特征,近40年海南岛冷冬频发,共出现12次冷冬年。南部市、县发生冷冬的频次大于中部及北部,北部市、县冷冬发生的强度强于南部。海南岛冷冬形成原因主要是对流层大气环流异常,西伯利亚高压增强,东亚冬季风显著偏强,对应副热带高压偏弱、位置偏东,影响海南岛的冷空气更加活跃,使得海南岛冬季气温偏低。另外,南海海温较常年偏低,ENSO冷位相叠加AO指数正位相,有利于进一步诱发大气环流异常,促使海南岛冬季气温偏低,出现异常冷冬事件。
Using the monthly mean temperature observation data from 17 meteorological observation stations in Hainan Province in last 40 years, according to "the Warm Winter Grade" national standard, the temporal and spatial distribution of cold winter is analyzed in this paper. On this basis, using 74 kinds of circulation index data provided by the National Climate Centre and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets from1977 to 2017, and the NOAA ERSST data, and the Nino3. 4 and AO index data, this paper analyzes the causes of the cold winter over Hainan. The results show that the winter temperature over Hainan has the interdecadal characteristics in the last 40 years. In recent years, cold winter has happened frequently and appeared 12 times. The frequency of cold winter in southern Hainan is more than that in northern and central parts. The strength of the cold winter in northern area is stronger than that in southern. In cold winter, atmospheric circulation is abnormal in troposphere. Siberian high pressure and East Asian winter monsoon are strong, correspondingly the subtropical high pressure is weak, lying on an eastward position.All these reasons result in the winter temperature lower than average. In addition, the sea temperature of South China Sea is lower than average. The collective effect of cold phase of ENSO index and positive phase of AO index is beneficial to induce the anomalies of atmospheric circulation in troposphere, leading to low temperature over Hainan. Thus, cold winter appears.
Using the monthly mean temperature observation data from 17 meteorological observation stations in Hainan Province in last 40 years, according to "the Warm Winter Grade" national standard, the temporal and spatial distribution of cold winter is analyzed in this paper. On this basis, using 74 kinds of circulation index data provided by the National Climate Centre and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets from1977 to 2017, and the NOAA ERSST data, and the Nino3. 4 and AO index data, this paper analyzes the causes of the cold winter over Hainan. The results show that the winter temperature over Hainan has the interdecadal characteristics in the last 40 years. In recent years, cold winter has happened frequently and appeared 12 times. The frequency of cold winter in southern Hainan is more than that in northern and central parts. The strength of the cold winter in northern area is stronger than that in southern. In cold winter, atmospheric circulation is abnormal in troposphere. Siberian high pressure and East Asian winter monsoon are strong, correspondingly the subtropical high pressure is weak, lying on an eastward position.All these reasons result in the winter temperature lower than average. In addition, the sea temperature of South China Sea is lower than average. The collective effect of cold phase of ENSO index and positive phase of AO index is beneficial to induce the anomalies of atmospheric circulation in troposphere, leading to low temperature over Hainan. Thus, cold winter appears.
引文
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Wang Bin,Wu Renguang,Fu Xiouhua,2000. Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:how does ENSO affect east Asian climate?[J]. J Climate,13(9):1517-1536.
Zhang Renhe,Sumi A,Kimoto M, 1996. Impact of El Nino on the East Asian monsoon:a diagnostic study of the'86/87 and'91/92 events[J]. J Meteor Soc Japan, 74(1):49-62.
董李丽,李清泉,丁一汇,2015.全球变暖背景下我国春季气温的时空变化特征[J].气象,41(10):1177-1189.
胡秀玲,刘宣飞,2005.东北地区冬季气温与北极涛动年代际关系研究[J].南京气象学院学报,28(5):640-648.
蒋全荣,郑定英,余志豪,1997.副热带高压季节性移动与海温场的联系[J].大气科学,21(2):199-204.
琚建华,任菊章,吕俊梅,2004.北极涛动年代际变化对东亚北部冬季气温增暖的影响[J].高原气象,23(4):429-434.
李春,方之芳,2005.北极涛动与东北冬季温度的联系[J].高原气象,24(6):927-934.
庞子琴,郭品文,2010.不同年代际背景下AO与冬季中国东北气温的关系[J].大气科学学报,33(4):469-476.
屈静玄,龚道溢,李桑,2015.春季北极涛动对南海气候的影响[J].科学通报,60(24):2327-2337.
任福民,翟盘茂,1998. 1951-1990年中国极端气温变化分析[J].大气科学,22(2):217-227.
司东,马丽娟,王朋岭,等,2016. 2015/2016年冬季北极涛动异常活动及其对我国气温的影响[J].气象,42(7):892-897.
所玲玲,黄嘉佑,谭本馗,2008.北极涛动对我国冬季同期极端气温的影响研究[J].热带气象学报,24(2):163-168.
王凌,张强,陈裕,等,2007. 1956-2005年中国暖冬和冬季温度变化[J].气候变化研究进展,3(1):26-30.
王绍武,1994.近百年气候变化与变率的诊断研究[J].气象学报,52(3):261-273.
伍红雨,潘蔚娟,王婷,2014.华南冬季气温异常与ENSO的关系[J].气象,40(10):1230-1239.
中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,国家标准化管理委员会,2008.暖冬等级:GB/T 21983-2008[S].北京:中国标准出版社.
周自江,王颖,2000.中国近46年冬季气温序列变化的研究[J].南京气象学院学报,23(1):106-112.
Wang Bin,Wu Renguang,Fu Xiouhua,2000. Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:how does ENSO affect east Asian climate?[J]. J Climate,13(9):1517-1536.
Zhang Renhe,Sumi A,Kimoto M, 1996. Impact of El Nino on the East Asian monsoon:a diagnostic study of the'86/87 and'91/92 events[J]. J Meteor Soc Japan, 74(1):49-62.