短时强降水监测和预警技术及其在山区的应用
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摘要
为提高短时强降水的监测和预警技术在山区等复杂地形中的应用,本文选取相关的探空资料分析天气背景,划分降水类型,与自动站订正技术相结合,采用Z-I分型最优化技术估测降水,利用交叉相关法对雷达反射率因子进行外推,并预测30min后的累积降水量。根据近3年的观测资料,制定出适合岳阳地区雷达反射率因子以及雷达估测降水对应的降水量级。通过与自动站雨量对比,Z-I分型最优化技术估测降水的相对误差较小;与Z-I经验公式估测降水对比分析,雷达估测降水的准确率有一定提高。经过岳阳示范区一年的实际应用表明:该方法对短时强降水的估测和预警均取得良好的效果,对强降水引起的山体滑坡等灾害具有一定的防范作用。
In order to improve the monitoring and early warning technology of short-time strong rainfall and its application to mountain areas,selecting the relevant radiosonde data,identifying the type of precipitation,and combined with the automatic correction technology,the classification optimization technique of Z-I relationship is used to estimating rainfall.Besides,the radar reflectivity factor is extrapolated by using the cross-correlation extrapolation method,and the cumulative precipitation in 30 minutes is predicted.Based on the observation data of nearly three years,the grades of precipitation corresponding to the radar reflection and radar rainfall estimate at Yueyang are determined.Compared with the data of automatic stations,the relative error of the precipitation estimate is smaller;compared with the empirical formula of Z-I relationship,the accuracy of the rainfall estimate by the classification optimization technology of Z-I relationship shows improvement.After a year of application in Yueyang Meteorological Service,the early warning technology has a good result in the precipitation estimation and short-time strong rainfall warning.
In order to improve the monitoring and early warning technology of short-time strong rainfall and its application to mountain areas,selecting the relevant radiosonde data,identifying the type of precipitation,and combined with the automatic correction technology,the classification optimization technique of Z-I relationship is used to estimating rainfall.Besides,the radar reflectivity factor is extrapolated by using the cross-correlation extrapolation method,and the cumulative precipitation in 30 minutes is predicted.Based on the observation data of nearly three years,the grades of precipitation corresponding to the radar reflection and radar rainfall estimate at Yueyang are determined.Compared with the data of automatic stations,the relative error of the precipitation estimate is smaller;compared with the empirical formula of Z-I relationship,the accuracy of the rainfall estimate by the classification optimization technology of Z-I relationship shows improvement.After a year of application in Yueyang Meteorological Service,the early warning technology has a good result in the precipitation estimation and short-time strong rainfall warning.
引文
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[14]东高红,刘黎平.雷达与雨量计联合估测降水的相关性分析[J].应用气象学报,2012,23(1):30-39.
[15]白先达,王艳兰,孙莹.雷达定量测量降水[J].气象科技,2011,39(1):61-65.
[16]伍静,刘黎平,尤卫红,等.应用雷达拼图数据估测降水试验[J].气象科技,2010,38(2):175-181.
[17]李建通,郭林,杨洪平.雷达-雨量计联合估测降水初值场形成方法探讨[J].大气科学,2005,29(6):1010-1020.
[18]汪瑛,冯业荣,蔡锦辉,等.雷达定量降水动态分级Z-I关系估算方法[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(4):601-608.
[19]吴书成,魏爽,吴京生.雷达估测降水在区域站降水质控中的应用[J].气象科技,2015,43(1):49-52.
[20]周慧,杨令,刘志雄,等.湖南省大暴雨时空分布特征及其分型[J].高原气象,2013,32(5):1425-1431.
[21]张培昌,杜秉玉,戴铁丕.雷达气象学[M].北京:气象出版社,2001.
[22]张亚萍,程明虎,夏文梅,等.天气雷达回波运动场估测及在降水临近预报中的应用[J].气象学报,2006,64(5):631-646.
[2]景学义,王开宇,贾艳辉,等.哈尔滨市地质灾害气象诱因分析及监测预警[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(1):139-142.
[3]黄勇,胡雯,张爱民,等.淮河流域致洪暴雨预警系统[J].气象,2006,32(5):105-109.
[4]王珏,冷亮,吴涛.SWAN系统中QPE产品的应用评估[J].气象科技,2015,43(3):380-386.
[5]熊明,涂荣玲.关于设计暴雨推求设计洪水方法的探讨[J].四川水力发电,1998,6(17):16-17.
[6]龙利民,王建国,汪应琼,等.多普勒天气雷达一小时累积降水产品估测能力检验[J].湖北气象,2004(1):19-21.
[7]黄菊梅,邹用昌,赵光平,等.中小尺度地形对降水影响研究[J].人民长江,2013,6(44):28-31.
[8]金少华,段旭,艾永智.云南元江“8.12”特大山洪暴雨的中尺度分析[C]∥中国气象学会2008年年会天气预报准确率与公共气象服务分会场论文集.北京:中国气象出版社,2008:207-212.
[9]王艳兰,孙莹,熊文兵,等.桂林地区短时暴雨自动监测预警系统研究[J].自然灾害学报,2011(3):163-168.
[10]廖慕科.多普勒雷达强降水预警在山洪灾害预警中的应用[J].农业灾害研究,2012,2(4):84-88.
[11]庄薇,刘黎平,王改利,等.青藏高原复杂地形区雷达估测降水方法研究[J].高原气象,2013,32(5):1224-1235.
[12]刘晓阳,杨洪平,李建通,等.新一代天气雷达定量降水估测集成系统[J].气象,2010,36(4):90-95.
[13]徐双柱,王仁乔,柯怡民,等.湖北省山洪灾害暴雨的中尺度分析[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):101-105.
[14]东高红,刘黎平.雷达与雨量计联合估测降水的相关性分析[J].应用气象学报,2012,23(1):30-39.
[15]白先达,王艳兰,孙莹.雷达定量测量降水[J].气象科技,2011,39(1):61-65.
[16]伍静,刘黎平,尤卫红,等.应用雷达拼图数据估测降水试验[J].气象科技,2010,38(2):175-181.
[17]李建通,郭林,杨洪平.雷达-雨量计联合估测降水初值场形成方法探讨[J].大气科学,2005,29(6):1010-1020.
[18]汪瑛,冯业荣,蔡锦辉,等.雷达定量降水动态分级Z-I关系估算方法[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(4):601-608.
[19]吴书成,魏爽,吴京生.雷达估测降水在区域站降水质控中的应用[J].气象科技,2015,43(1):49-52.
[20]周慧,杨令,刘志雄,等.湖南省大暴雨时空分布特征及其分型[J].高原气象,2013,32(5):1425-1431.
[21]张培昌,杜秉玉,戴铁丕.雷达气象学[M].北京:气象出版社,2001.
[22]张亚萍,程明虎,夏文梅,等.天气雷达回波运动场估测及在降水临近预报中的应用[J].气象学报,2006,64(5):631-646.