油菜花最佳观赏期变化及其对温度因子的响应
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摘要
气温是各种气候因子中影响植物花期迟早最重要的因素之一。以高淳油菜花为研究对象,选取近30年(1986—2016年)物候观测资料,分析了盛花期的变化特征和盛花期早晚年温度因子的特征;采用通径分析法,研究分析了三个表征温度的指标(平均气温T_a<5℃的日数、积温和强冷空气日数)与油菜花盛花期关系,结果为预测高淳油菜花的最佳观赏期、做好相关旅游气象服务提供了理论依据。结果表明:高淳油菜花盛花期在2001年以前波动不大,但在2001年后,随年代际呈提早趋势;盛花期迟早年类型不同,T_a稳定在5℃的日期也有差别,具体为盛花期偏早年<正常偏早年和正常偏晚年<正常年<偏晚年;盛花期偏晚年与T_a<5℃的日数和积温关系也很显著,从冬至日开始,若T_a<5℃的日数超过了53 d或者T_a<5℃的积温超过137℃·d,则翌年油菜花盛花日期有可能出现在4月4日之后;若达到强冷空气级别的日数越多,则翌年高淳油菜花盛花期会有所推后。在三个表征温度的指标中,对油菜花盛花期影响最大的是T_a<5℃积温。
Temperature is one of most important climatic factors in the plant flowering time. Using phenology observed data of rape petal in Gaochun from 1986 to 2016, this paper analyzes the characteristics of full-bloom stage and temperature factors in different years. Path analysis method is used to analyze the effect of three temperature factors on full-bloom stage of rape petal. The three factors are days of mean air temperature lower than 5 ℃, accumulated temperature of mean air temperature lower than 5 ℃, and days with strong cold air. The results could provide theoretical foundation for the predicting of optimum viewing period and tourism meteorological services of rape petal in Gaochun. Finally, the results show that there is no fluctuation of full-bloom stage before 2001. However, along with the decadal variation, it shows an early trend obriously. The type of full-bloom stage changes with the average temperature stabilized at 5℃. Specifically, the early years of full-bloom stage are less than normal early years and normal late years, less than normal years, and less than later years. There is a significant correlation between fullbloom stage in late years and days of mean air temperature lower than 5℃(T_a<5℃). Beginning from the winter solstice, the full-bloom stage of rape petal next year would be later than April 4 if the Ta<5℃ days are more than 53 d, or accumulated temperature of mean air temperature lower than 5℃(T_a<5℃) is more than 137℃ · d. Then, rape full-bloom stage next year would be pushed back with the more days reaching level of strong cold air. With three indice of low temperature, the largest factor impact on rape petal fullbloom stage is the accumulated temperature of mean air temperature lower than 5℃(T_a<5℃).
Temperature is one of most important climatic factors in the plant flowering time. Using phenology observed data of rape petal in Gaochun from 1986 to 2016, this paper analyzes the characteristics of full-bloom stage and temperature factors in different years. Path analysis method is used to analyze the effect of three temperature factors on full-bloom stage of rape petal. The three factors are days of mean air temperature lower than 5 ℃, accumulated temperature of mean air temperature lower than 5 ℃, and days with strong cold air. The results could provide theoretical foundation for the predicting of optimum viewing period and tourism meteorological services of rape petal in Gaochun. Finally, the results show that there is no fluctuation of full-bloom stage before 2001. However, along with the decadal variation, it shows an early trend obriously. The type of full-bloom stage changes with the average temperature stabilized at 5℃. Specifically, the early years of full-bloom stage are less than normal early years and normal late years, less than normal years, and less than later years. There is a significant correlation between fullbloom stage in late years and days of mean air temperature lower than 5℃(T_a<5℃). Beginning from the winter solstice, the full-bloom stage of rape petal next year would be later than April 4 if the Ta<5℃ days are more than 53 d, or accumulated temperature of mean air temperature lower than 5℃(T_a<5℃) is more than 137℃ · d. Then, rape full-bloom stage next year would be pushed back with the more days reaching level of strong cold air. With three indice of low temperature, the largest factor impact on rape petal fullbloom stage is the accumulated temperature of mean air temperature lower than 5℃(T_a<5℃).
引文
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毛明策,刘敏茹,姜创业,等,2005.苹果初花期与温度的关系研究[J].中国农业气象,26(2):123-124,128. Mao M C,Liu M R,Jiang C Y,et al,2005. A study on relationship between air temperature and early blooming time of malus[J]. Chin J Agrometeor,26(2):123-124,128(in Chinese).
屈振江,周广胜,魏钦平,2016.苹果花期冻害气象指标和风险评估[J].应用气象学报,27(4):385-395. Qu Z J,Zhou G S,Wei Q P,2016. Meteorological disaster index and risk assessment of frost injury during apple florescence[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,27(4):385-395(in Chinese).
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孙超才,方光华,赵华,等,1996.甘蓝型油菜(Brassicanapus L.)的春化作用及其应用[J].上海农业学报,12(2):5-9. Sun C C,Fang G H,Zhao H,et al,1996. Artificial vernalization in rapeseed(Brassica napus L.)and its utilization[J]. Acta Agri Shanghai, 12(2):5-9(in Chinese).
王利琳,庞基良,胡江琴,等,2002.温度对植物成花的影响[J].植物学通报,19(2):176-183. Wang L L,Pang J L,Hu J Q,et al,2002. Effect of temperature on flowering[J]. Chin Bull Botany,19(2):176-183(in Chinese).
汪如良,邓德文,郭瑞鸽,等,2015.鄱阳湖旅游地区油菜花花期的分析研究[J].江西科学,33(5):708-712. Wang R L,Deng D W,Guo R G,et al,2015. An analysis of rape flower florescence in tourist area of Poyang Lake[J]. Jiangxi Sci,33(5):708-712(in Chinese).
吴瑞芬,霍治国,曹艳芳,等,2009.内蒙古典型草本植物春季物候变化及其对气候变暖的响应[J].生态学杂志,28(8):1470-1475.Wu R F,Huo Z G,Cao Y F,et al,2009. Phenophase change of typical herbaceous plants in Inner Mongolia in spring and its re-sponse to climate warming[J]. Chin J Ecology, 28(8):1470-1475(in Chinese).
叶海龙,吴海镇,2013.气象因子预测油菜盛花期的探讨[J].浙江农业科学,1(9):1080-1081. Ye H L,Wu H Z,2013. Discussion on meteorological factors for predicting the flowering period of rape[J]. Zhejiang Agri Sci,1(9):1080-1081(in Chinese).
张福春,1995.气候变化对中国木本植物物候的可能影响[J].地理学报,50(5):402-410. Zhang F C,1995. Effects of global warming on plant phenological events in China. Acta Geographica Sin,50(5):402-410(in Chinese).
张惠霞,2013.桃树始花期与气象因子的相关分析及预报模型[J].安徽农业科学,41(10):4513-4515. Zhang H X,2013. Correlation analysis and forecasting model of peach tree early flowering season and meteorological factors[J]. J Anhui Agri Sci,41(10):4513-4515(in Chinese).
中国气象局,2014.冷空气过程监测业务规定(试行)[C].北京:中国气象局.China Meteorological Administration. Cold Air Process Monitoring Business Regulations[C]. Beijing:China Meteorological Administration,2014(in Chinese).
Ahas R,Jaagus J,Aasa A,2000. The phenological calendar of Estonia and its correlation with mean air temperature[J]. Int J Biometeorol,44(4):159-166.
Kramer K,Leinonen I,Loustau D,2000. The importance of phenology for the evaluation of impact of climate change on growth of boreal,temperate and Mediterranean forests ecosystems:an overview[J]. Int J Biometeorol,44(2):67-75.
Snyder R L,Spano D,Duce P,et al,2001. Temperature data for phenological models[J]. Int J Biometeorol,45(4):178-183.
Sparks T H,Jeffree E P,Jeffree C E,2000. An examination of the relationship between flowering times and temperature at the national scale using long-term phenological records from the UK[J]. Int J Biometeorol,44(2):82-87.
范雨娴,霍治国,杨宏毅,等,2018.湖南省油菜春季涝渍过程灾变判别指标[J].应用气象学报,29(2):141-153. Fan Y X,Huo Z G,Yang H Y,et al,2018. Catastrophe distinction index of oilseed rape vernal waterlogging in Hunan[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,29(2):141-153(in Chinese).
盖钧镒,2000.试验统计方法[M].北京:中国农业出版社.Ge J Y,2000. Test Statistical Method[M]. Beijing:China Agricultural Press(in Chinese).
郭睿,2016.杨凌地区桃树花期预测模型研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,Guo R,2016. The research on Yangling peach florescence prediction model[D]. Yangling:Northwest A&F University(in Chinese).
国家气象局,1993.农业气象观测规范[M].北京:气象出版社.China Meteorological Administration, 1993. Agrometeorological Observation Specification[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press(in Chinese).
黄世成,徐春阳,周嘉陵,2012.城市和森林空气负离子浓度与气象环境关系的通径分析[J].气象,38(11):1417-1422. Huang S C,Xu C Y,Zhou J L,2012. Path analysis on negative air ion concentration and the meteorological environment in urban and forest zones[J]. Meteor Mon,38(11):1417-1422(in Chinese).
刘艳,白玉荣,刘彬贤,2008.天津市春季花粉高峰始期与积温关系研究[C]//中国颗粒学会第六届学术年会暨海峡两岸颗粒技术研讨会论文集.上海:中国颗粒学会.Liu Y,Bai Y R,Liu B X,2008. The relationship between initial stage of spring pollen peak and accumulated temperature in Tianjin[C]//The 6th Annul Meeting of Chinese Society of Particuology:Proceedings of Symposium on Particuology Cross-Strait. Shanghai:Chinese Society of Particuology(in Chinese).
毛明策,刘敏茹,姜创业,等,2005.苹果初花期与温度的关系研究[J].中国农业气象,26(2):123-124,128. Mao M C,Liu M R,Jiang C Y,et al,2005. A study on relationship between air temperature and early blooming time of malus[J]. Chin J Agrometeor,26(2):123-124,128(in Chinese).
屈振江,周广胜,魏钦平,2016.苹果花期冻害气象指标和风险评估[J].应用气象学报,27(4):385-395. Qu Z J,Zhou G S,Wei Q P,2016. Meteorological disaster index and risk assessment of frost injury during apple florescence[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,27(4):385-395(in Chinese).
任义方,高苹,王春乙,2010.江苏高温热害对水稻的影响及成因分析[J].自然灾害学报,19(5):101-107. Ren Y F,Gao P,Wang C Y, 2010. High temperature damage to paddy rice in Jiangsu Province and its cause analysis[J]. J Nat Dis,19(5):101-107(in Chinese).
孙超才,方光华,赵华,等,1996.甘蓝型油菜(Brassicanapus L.)的春化作用及其应用[J].上海农业学报,12(2):5-9. Sun C C,Fang G H,Zhao H,et al,1996. Artificial vernalization in rapeseed(Brassica napus L.)and its utilization[J]. Acta Agri Shanghai, 12(2):5-9(in Chinese).
王利琳,庞基良,胡江琴,等,2002.温度对植物成花的影响[J].植物学通报,19(2):176-183. Wang L L,Pang J L,Hu J Q,et al,2002. Effect of temperature on flowering[J]. Chin Bull Botany,19(2):176-183(in Chinese).
汪如良,邓德文,郭瑞鸽,等,2015.鄱阳湖旅游地区油菜花花期的分析研究[J].江西科学,33(5):708-712. Wang R L,Deng D W,Guo R G,et al,2015. An analysis of rape flower florescence in tourist area of Poyang Lake[J]. Jiangxi Sci,33(5):708-712(in Chinese).
吴瑞芬,霍治国,曹艳芳,等,2009.内蒙古典型草本植物春季物候变化及其对气候变暖的响应[J].生态学杂志,28(8):1470-1475.Wu R F,Huo Z G,Cao Y F,et al,2009. Phenophase change of typical herbaceous plants in Inner Mongolia in spring and its re-sponse to climate warming[J]. Chin J Ecology, 28(8):1470-1475(in Chinese).
叶海龙,吴海镇,2013.气象因子预测油菜盛花期的探讨[J].浙江农业科学,1(9):1080-1081. Ye H L,Wu H Z,2013. Discussion on meteorological factors for predicting the flowering period of rape[J]. Zhejiang Agri Sci,1(9):1080-1081(in Chinese).
张福春,1995.气候变化对中国木本植物物候的可能影响[J].地理学报,50(5):402-410. Zhang F C,1995. Effects of global warming on plant phenological events in China. Acta Geographica Sin,50(5):402-410(in Chinese).
张惠霞,2013.桃树始花期与气象因子的相关分析及预报模型[J].安徽农业科学,41(10):4513-4515. Zhang H X,2013. Correlation analysis and forecasting model of peach tree early flowering season and meteorological factors[J]. J Anhui Agri Sci,41(10):4513-4515(in Chinese).
中国气象局,2014.冷空气过程监测业务规定(试行)[C].北京:中国气象局.China Meteorological Administration. Cold Air Process Monitoring Business Regulations[C]. Beijing:China Meteorological Administration,2014(in Chinese).
Ahas R,Jaagus J,Aasa A,2000. The phenological calendar of Estonia and its correlation with mean air temperature[J]. Int J Biometeorol,44(4):159-166.
Kramer K,Leinonen I,Loustau D,2000. The importance of phenology for the evaluation of impact of climate change on growth of boreal,temperate and Mediterranean forests ecosystems:an overview[J]. Int J Biometeorol,44(2):67-75.
Snyder R L,Spano D,Duce P,et al,2001. Temperature data for phenological models[J]. Int J Biometeorol,45(4):178-183.
Sparks T H,Jeffree E P,Jeffree C E,2000. An examination of the relationship between flowering times and temperature at the national scale using long-term phenological records from the UK[J]. Int J Biometeorol,44(2):82-87.