摘要
为全面评估不同调度备选方案的风险,提出了一种考虑电网调度操作全过程的动态N-1风险评估技术框架,不仅考虑目标电网稳定运行的N-1故障风险,还综合考虑开关操作失败引起的关联母线N-1故障风险。提出了描述调度操作全过程风险的概率模型、统一的后果严重度指标及量化方法,采用状态转移矩阵描述调度单项令序列的失败概率,采用对数合成方式降低关联指标的耦合程度。以中国深圳电网的实际调度事件为例,说明了所提方法的可行性和有效性。
In order to comprehensively assess the risks of alternative dispatching schemes, a dynamic N-1 risk assessment technical framework considering whole process of dispatching operation is proposed. It not only considers the N-1 failure risk of stable operation of the target grid but also comprehensively considers the associated bus N-1 failure risk caused by switching operation failure. This paper proposes the probabilistic models which describe the risk of whole process of dispatching operation, the unified risk indicators and corresponding quantitative methods. The failure probability of switching operation is described by the state-transition matrix, and the coupling degree of related indicators is reduced by logarithmic synthesis method. The case study of Shenzhen power grid of China demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.
引文
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