考虑调度操作全过程的动态N-1风险评估技术
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摘要
为全面评估不同调度备选方案的风险,提出了一种考虑电网调度操作全过程的动态N-1风险评估技术框架,不仅考虑目标电网稳定运行的N-1故障风险,还综合考虑开关操作失败引起的关联母线N-1故障风险。提出了描述调度操作全过程风险的概率模型、统一的后果严重度指标及量化方法,采用状态转移矩阵描述调度单项令序列的失败概率,采用对数合成方式降低关联指标的耦合程度。以中国深圳电网的实际调度事件为例,说明了所提方法的可行性和有效性。
In order to comprehensively assess the risks of alternative dispatching schemes, a dynamic N-1 risk assessment technical framework considering whole process of dispatching operation is proposed. It not only considers the N-1 failure risk of stable operation of the target grid but also comprehensively considers the associated bus N-1 failure risk caused by switching operation failure. This paper proposes the probabilistic models which describe the risk of whole process of dispatching operation, the unified risk indicators and corresponding quantitative methods. The failure probability of switching operation is described by the state-transition matrix, and the coupling degree of related indicators is reduced by logarithmic synthesis method. The case study of Shenzhen power grid of China demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.
In order to comprehensively assess the risks of alternative dispatching schemes, a dynamic N-1 risk assessment technical framework considering whole process of dispatching operation is proposed. It not only considers the N-1 failure risk of stable operation of the target grid but also comprehensively considers the associated bus N-1 failure risk caused by switching operation failure. This paper proposes the probabilistic models which describe the risk of whole process of dispatching operation, the unified risk indicators and corresponding quantitative methods. The failure probability of switching operation is described by the state-transition matrix, and the coupling degree of related indicators is reduced by logarithmic synthesis method. The case study of Shenzhen power grid of China demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.
引文
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[11] 卢恩,呼士召,占才亮,等.电网调度操作过程中的人员风险因素建模[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(17):163-168.LU En,HU Shizhao,ZHAN Cailiang,et al.Modelling of human risk factors during power grid dispatching operation[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(17):163-168.
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[13] 侯恺,曾沅,贾宏杰,等.基于马尔可夫链的调度操作流程风险评估及优选方法[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(19):142-148.HOU Kai,ZENG Yuan,JIA Hongjie,et al.Risk assessment and optimization method for Markov chain-based scheduling operations[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(19):142-148.
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[15] 刘嘉宁,潮铸,钟华赞,等.基于广义断面的电网调度操作风险评估[J].电工技术学报,2016,31(3):155-163.LIU Jianing,CHAO Zhu,ZHONG Huazan,et al.The risk assessment method for the dispatching operation based on generalized sections[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2016,31(3):155-163.
[16] 呼士召,潮铸,钟华赞,等.电网调度操作的风险后果值建模及应用[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(7):54-60.HU Shizhao,CHAO Zhu,ZHONG Huazan,et al.Modeling and application of power grid dispatching operation risk consequences[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(7):54-60.
[17] 邹清林,唐健,刘裕昆,等.一种满足风险完备性的调度操作风险量化评估方法[J].电网与清洁能源,2017(9):32-40.ZOU Qinglin,TANG Jian,LIU Yukun,et al.A risk quantitative evaluation method of the dispatching operation considering the complete risk[J].Advances of Power System & Hydroelectric Engineering,2017(9):32-40.
[18] 张国华,段满银,张建华,等.基于证据理论和效用理论的电力系统风险评估[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(23):1-4.ZHANG Guohua,DUAN Manyin,ZHANG Jianhua,et al.Power system risk assessment based on the evidence theory and utility theory[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2009,33(23):1-4.
[19] 崔建磊,文云峰,郭创新,等.面向调度运行的电网安全风险管理控制系统:(二)风险指标体系、评估方法与应用策略[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(10):92-97.CUI Jianlei,WEN Yunfeng,GUO Chuangxin,et al.Design of a security risk management system for power system dispatching and operation:Part two risk index,assessment methodologies and application strategies[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(10):92-97.
[20] 潮铸,呼士召,鲁跃峰,等.面向调度操作的静态电压稳定风险评估方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2013,25(6):42-49.CHAO Zhu,HU Shizhao,LU Yuefeng,et al.Risk assessment of static voltage stability for dispatching operation[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2013,25(6):42-49.
[21] 何宇斌,郭嘉,沈俭荣,等.基于风险节点电价的互联系统分散协同调度方法[J].电网技术,2017,41(8):2462-2468.HE Yubin,GUO Jia,SHEN Jianrong,et al.Decentralized synergetic dispatch of interconnected power systems with risk-based locational marginal price[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(8):2462-2468.
[2] 葛少云,朱振环,刘洪,等.配电网故障风险综合评估方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2014,26(7):40-45.GE Shaoyun,ZHU Zhenhuan,LIU Hong,et al.Comprehensive evaluation method for distribution network fault risk[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2014,26(7):40-45.
[3] 吴文传,宁辽逸,张伯明,等.一种考虑二次设备模型的在线静态运行风险评估方法[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(7):1-5.WU Wenchuan,NING Liaoyi,ZHANG Boming,et al.Online operation risk assessment for power system static security considering secondary devices models[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2008,32(7):1-5.
[4] 王一枫,汤伟,刘路登,等.电网运行风险评估与定级体系的构建及应用[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(8):141-148.WANG Yifeng,TANG Wei,LIU Ludeng,et al.Construction and application of power grid operation risk assessment and rating system[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(8):141-148.
[5] 李碧君,方勇杰,徐泰山.关于电网运行安全风险在线评估的评述[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(18):171-177.LI Bijun,FANG Yongjie,XU Taishan.Review on online operational security risk assessment of power systems[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(18):171-177.
[6] 徐泰山,李峰,张建新,等.各类紧急减负荷控制的在线风险评估和协调决策方案[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(20):91-97.XU Taishan,LI Feng,ZHANG Jianxin,et al.Online risk assessment and coordinated decision scheme for emergency load shedding control[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(20):91-97.
[7] 徐鹏,杨胜春,李峰,等.基于层次分析和变权重机制的电网安全指标计算及展示方法[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(8):133-140.XU Peng,YANG Shengchun,LI Feng,et al.Power grid security index calculation and display method based on AHP and variable weight mechanism[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(8):133-140.
[8] 汪隆君,李博,王钢,等.计及电网变化过程的地区电网运行风险评估[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(1):18-22.WANG Longjun,LI Bo,WANG Gang,et al.Operational risk assessment of regional power grid considering developing process[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(1):18-22.
[9] 高明,陈珂宁,李文云,等.云南电网调度操作安全风险防控系统的研究与设计[J].电力自动化设备,2011,31(9):129-133.GAO Ming,CHEN Kening,LI Wenyun,et al.Security risk prevention and control system for dispatch operations of Yunnan power grid[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2011,31(9):129-133.
[10] 魏炜,王恩,刘哲.时变概率模型下的电网调度操作过程风险评估[J].电网技术,2013,37(12):3509-3514.WEI Wei,WANG En,LIU Zhe.Real-time probabilistic model based risk assessment of dispatching operations process[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(12):3509-3514.
[11] 卢恩,呼士召,占才亮,等.电网调度操作过程中的人员风险因素建模[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(17):163-168.LU En,HU Shizhao,ZHAN Cailiang,et al.Modelling of human risk factors during power grid dispatching operation[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(17):163-168.
[12] LU D,HOU K,ZENG Y,et al.A risk assessment approach for dispatching operations based on critical equipment search[C]// IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting,July 26-30,2015,Denver,USA:1-5.
[13] 侯恺,曾沅,贾宏杰,等.基于马尔可夫链的调度操作流程风险评估及优选方法[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(19):142-148.HOU Kai,ZENG Yuan,JIA Hongjie,et al.Risk assessment and optimization method for Markov chain-based scheduling operations[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(19):142-148.
[14] 林少华,刘嘉宁,陈东,等.基于故障树理论的电网调度操作实时风险评估[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(5):121-125.LIN Shaohua,LIU Jianing,CHEN Dong,et al.Real-time risk assessment based on fault tree theory for power dispatch[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(5):121-125.
[15] 刘嘉宁,潮铸,钟华赞,等.基于广义断面的电网调度操作风险评估[J].电工技术学报,2016,31(3):155-163.LIU Jianing,CHAO Zhu,ZHONG Huazan,et al.The risk assessment method for the dispatching operation based on generalized sections[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2016,31(3):155-163.
[16] 呼士召,潮铸,钟华赞,等.电网调度操作的风险后果值建模及应用[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(7):54-60.HU Shizhao,CHAO Zhu,ZHONG Huazan,et al.Modeling and application of power grid dispatching operation risk consequences[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(7):54-60.
[17] 邹清林,唐健,刘裕昆,等.一种满足风险完备性的调度操作风险量化评估方法[J].电网与清洁能源,2017(9):32-40.ZOU Qinglin,TANG Jian,LIU Yukun,et al.A risk quantitative evaluation method of the dispatching operation considering the complete risk[J].Advances of Power System & Hydroelectric Engineering,2017(9):32-40.
[18] 张国华,段满银,张建华,等.基于证据理论和效用理论的电力系统风险评估[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(23):1-4.ZHANG Guohua,DUAN Manyin,ZHANG Jianhua,et al.Power system risk assessment based on the evidence theory and utility theory[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2009,33(23):1-4.
[19] 崔建磊,文云峰,郭创新,等.面向调度运行的电网安全风险管理控制系统:(二)风险指标体系、评估方法与应用策略[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(10):92-97.CUI Jianlei,WEN Yunfeng,GUO Chuangxin,et al.Design of a security risk management system for power system dispatching and operation:Part two risk index,assessment methodologies and application strategies[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(10):92-97.
[20] 潮铸,呼士召,鲁跃峰,等.面向调度操作的静态电压稳定风险评估方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2013,25(6):42-49.CHAO Zhu,HU Shizhao,LU Yuefeng,et al.Risk assessment of static voltage stability for dispatching operation[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2013,25(6):42-49.
[21] 何宇斌,郭嘉,沈俭荣,等.基于风险节点电价的互联系统分散协同调度方法[J].电网技术,2017,41(8):2462-2468.HE Yubin,GUO Jia,SHEN Jianrong,et al.Decentralized synergetic dispatch of interconnected power systems with risk-based locational marginal price[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(8):2462-2468.