我国北方重点煤电基地发展伴生的水资源压力分析
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摘要
鉴于煤电基地的快速扩张会给区域水资源保障带来极大的压力,运用生命周期评价方法计算了2006～2015年我国北方九大煤电基地煤炭生产和火力发电的水足迹,提出了虚拟水流出伴生的水资源压力指数,评价了煤电虚拟水外送给当地水资源系统造成的压力,分析了未来煤电基地发展的水资源适配性。结果表明,九大煤电基地煤炭生产和火力发电的年均水足迹为13.4×108 m3,占当地淡水资源可用总量的22.8%,煤炭和电力外送伴生的虚拟水流出总量持续增加,增长率为3 031.9×104 m3/a,近10年来,水资源压力指数呈现上升趋势,六个煤电基地达到中度压力等级,造成巨大的水资源压力;2020年,九大煤电基地总水足迹为15.7×108 m3,区域可供给煤电基地的水资源量为11.9×108 m3,只有晋北和准东的水资源满足未来基地扩张需要;晋中、晋东、陕北和鄂尔多斯通过优化调度等增加区域可供水量后可以满足未来生产需要;宁东和哈密发展所需的水资源与供给能力严重不适配,应调整发展战略,保障基地用水安全。
In view of the rapid expansion of the coal-fired power bases,it will bring great pressure to the regional water resources security.The life cycle assessment method was used to calculate the water footprint of coal production and thermal power generation in the nine major coal-fired power bases in northern China from 2006 to 2015.A Modified Water Stress Index induced by coal and electricity transfer was proposed to evaluate the pressure on the local water resources system caused by the virtual water flowing out of water-scarce areas due to coal and electricity transfer.And then the water resource adaptability of the future coal-fired bases development was analyzed.The results show that the annual average water footprint of coal production and thermal power generation at nine major coal bases reaches 1.34 billion m3,the total virtual water flowing out of the nine coal bases embedded in energy product trade is keeping increasing with the growth rate of 3.031 9×107 m3/a;in the past 10 years,the Modified Water Stress Index of coal bases appears an obvious upward trend;The total water footprint of nine coal bases reaches 1.57 billion m3 in 2020,water resources available to the coal bases in the region will be 1.19 billion m3.Only the water resources of the Northern Shanxi and East Junggar coal bases will meet future expansion needs of the base.The East Shanxi,Middle Shanxi,Northern Shaanxi and Erdos coal bases can increase the water supply capacity by optimizing the dispatch to meet the production needs of coal bases.The development of Kumul and Eastern Ningxia is seriously unsuitable for water resources.The development strategy should be adjusted to guarantee water safety of the coal-fired power bases.
In view of the rapid expansion of the coal-fired power bases,it will bring great pressure to the regional water resources security.The life cycle assessment method was used to calculate the water footprint of coal production and thermal power generation in the nine major coal-fired power bases in northern China from 2006 to 2015.A Modified Water Stress Index induced by coal and electricity transfer was proposed to evaluate the pressure on the local water resources system caused by the virtual water flowing out of water-scarce areas due to coal and electricity transfer.And then the water resource adaptability of the future coal-fired bases development was analyzed.The results show that the annual average water footprint of coal production and thermal power generation at nine major coal bases reaches 1.34 billion m3,the total virtual water flowing out of the nine coal bases embedded in energy product trade is keeping increasing with the growth rate of 3.031 9×107 m3/a;in the past 10 years,the Modified Water Stress Index of coal bases appears an obvious upward trend;The total water footprint of nine coal bases reaches 1.57 billion m3 in 2020,water resources available to the coal bases in the region will be 1.19 billion m3.Only the water resources of the Northern Shanxi and East Junggar coal bases will meet future expansion needs of the base.The East Shanxi,Middle Shanxi,Northern Shaanxi and Erdos coal bases can increase the water supply capacity by optimizing the dispatch to meet the production needs of coal bases.The development of Kumul and Eastern Ningxia is seriously unsuitable for water resources.The development strategy should be adjusted to guarantee water safety of the coal-fired power bases.
引文
[1]姜珊,赵勇,尚毅梓,等.中国煤炭基地水与能源协同发展评估[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(11):40-43.
[2] Yang D,Liu J,Yang J,et al.Life-cycle Assessment of China’s Multi-crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Modules Considering International Trade[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,94(1):35-45.
[3] Smakhtin V,Revenga C,Doll P.Taking Into Account Environmental Water Requirements in Globalscale Water Resources Assessments[J].2004.
[4] DB15/T385-2009,内蒙古自治区行业用水定额标准[S].北京:人民交通出版社,2009.
[2] Yang D,Liu J,Yang J,et al.Life-cycle Assessment of China’s Multi-crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Modules Considering International Trade[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,94(1):35-45.
[3] Smakhtin V,Revenga C,Doll P.Taking Into Account Environmental Water Requirements in Globalscale Water Resources Assessments[J].2004.
[4] DB15/T385-2009,内蒙古自治区行业用水定额标准[S].北京:人民交通出版社,2009.