基于CBR的应急情报智能决策支持系统研究
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摘要
[目的/意义]针对应急情报智能决策支持系统(IDSS)自学习能力较差等问题,提出了一种基于案例推理的应急情报智能决策支持系统。[方法/过程]首先,分析了应急情报IDSS的特点和局限性;其次,分析了基于案例推理(CBR)系统和贝叶斯信念网(BBN)在应急情报智能决策中的应用;再次,使用人工神经网络(ANN)算法代替CBR系统中原有检索算法,使用BBN训练分类器,建立了基于ANN-BBN-CBR的应急情报IDSS模型;最后,给出了该系统的工作流程,并通过收集到的数据验证了该系统有效性和可行性。[结果/结论]该系统模型的使用不仅使大型案例库的检索和匹配速度及准确率得到了大幅度的提高,并且为案例相似性的度量提供了适当的统计信息,给案例库的组织管理也带来了方便,更为应急情报收集、整合、分析、传递、反馈等工作提供了研究思路。
[Purpose/Significance]Aiming at solving the problem of poor self-learning ability of emergency intelligence intelligent decision support system( IDSS),an emergency intelligent IDSS based on case-based reasoning( CBR) is proposed.[Method/Process]Firstly,the characteristics and limitations of the emergency intelligence IDSS are analyzed. Secondly,the application of CBR and Bayesian Belief Network( BBN) in emergency intelligence intelligent decision is analyzed. Thirdly,the Artificial Neural Network( ANN) algorithm is used to replace the retrieval algorithm in CBR system and the BBN trains model,and the model of emergency intelligence IDSS based on ANN-BBN-CBR is established. Finally,the working flow of the system is analyzed,and its effectiveness and feasibility are verified by the data collected.[Result/Conclusion]The use of the system model not only makes the retrieval and matching speed and accuracy of the large case database greatly improved,provides the appropriate statistical information for the similarity measure,and brings the convenience to the organization and management of the case database,but also provides research ideas for emergency information work.
[Purpose/Significance]Aiming at solving the problem of poor self-learning ability of emergency intelligence intelligent decision support system( IDSS),an emergency intelligent IDSS based on case-based reasoning( CBR) is proposed.[Method/Process]Firstly,the characteristics and limitations of the emergency intelligence IDSS are analyzed. Secondly,the application of CBR and Bayesian Belief Network( BBN) in emergency intelligence intelligent decision is analyzed. Thirdly,the Artificial Neural Network( ANN) algorithm is used to replace the retrieval algorithm in CBR system and the BBN trains model,and the model of emergency intelligence IDSS based on ANN-BBN-CBR is established. Finally,the working flow of the system is analyzed,and its effectiveness and feasibility are verified by the data collected.[Result/Conclusion]The use of the system model not only makes the retrieval and matching speed and accuracy of the large case database greatly improved,provides the appropriate statistical information for the similarity measure,and brings the convenience to the organization and management of the case database,but also provides research ideas for emergency information work.
引文
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[16]林子铭,李牧衡,赖美娟.人情智能对群体决策支持系统的影响[J].管理学报,2017,14(3):425-432.
[17]张双狮,兰月新,刘冰月,等.基于案例推理的群体性事件智能决策支持WEB系统研究[J].情报杂志,2017,36(4):106-111.
[18]李永海,樊治平,李铭洋.解决广义不确定型决策问题的案例决策方法[J].系统工程学报,2014,29(1):21-29.
[19]张恺,王应明.不确定信息下的应急方案调整方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(10):169-174.
[20]Powers D M W.Recall and precision versus the bookmaker[C].International Conference on Cognitive Science International Conference on Cognitive Science,2003:529-534.
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[22]Powers D M.Evaluation:From precision,recall and f-factor to ROC,informedness,markedness&correlation[J].Journal of M achine Learning Technologies,2011,2(1):2229-3981.
[2]黄继鸿,姚武,雷战波.基于案例推理的企业财务危机智能预警支持系统研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2003(12):46-52.
[3]汪季玉,王金桃.基于案例推理的应急决策支持系统研究[J].管理科学,2003,16(6):46-51.
[4]苏占东,杨炳儒,游福成.基于信息挖掘的智能决策支持系统的结构设计[J].计算机应用研究,2005(3):27-30.
[5]池宏,祁明亮,计雷,等.城市突发公共事件应急管理体系研究[J].中国公共安全(学术版),2005(3):21-32.
[6]Niki K K,Roland W H.An approach for predicting and describing patient outcome using multicriteria decision analysis and decision rules[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2008,185(3):984-997.
[7]Mark S,Daniel C,Victor L.Automated organization design for multi agent systems[J].Autonomous Agents and M ulti Agent Systems,2008,16(2):151-185.
[8]杨灵芝,丁敬达.论城市突发事件的应急信息管理[J].情报科学,2009,27(3):351-355.
[9]韩传峰,王兴广,孔静静.非常规突发事件应急决策系统动态作用机理[J].软科学,2009,23(8):50-53.
[10].Repoussis P P,Paraskevopoulos D C,Zobolas G,et al.A web-based decision support system for w aste lube oils collection and recycling[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2009,195(3):676-700.
[11]康青春,郑儒欣.非常规突发事件现场应急指挥平台设计与实现[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(3):161-165.
[12]马晓亮,刘然.突发群体性事件中政府危机管理问题研究以重庆万盛群众聚集事件为例[D].武汉:湖北大学,2013.
[13]Kapucu N.Disaster and emergency management systems in urban areas[J].Cities,2012,29(S1):41-49.
[14]罗贺,杨善林,丁帅.云计算环境下的智能决策研究综述[J].系统工程学报,2013,28(1):134-142.
[15]徐杨,王晓峰,何清漪.物联网环境下多智能体决策信息支持技术[J].软件学报,2014,25(10):2325-2345.
[16]林子铭,李牧衡,赖美娟.人情智能对群体决策支持系统的影响[J].管理学报,2017,14(3):425-432.
[17]张双狮,兰月新,刘冰月,等.基于案例推理的群体性事件智能决策支持WEB系统研究[J].情报杂志,2017,36(4):106-111.
[18]李永海,樊治平,李铭洋.解决广义不确定型决策问题的案例决策方法[J].系统工程学报,2014,29(1):21-29.
[19]张恺,王应明.不确定信息下的应急方案调整方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(10):169-174.
[20]Powers D M W.Recall and precision versus the bookmaker[C].International Conference on Cognitive Science International Conference on Cognitive Science,2003:529-534.
[21]Fraser A,Marcu D.Measuring word alignment quality for statistical machine translation[J].Computational Linguistics,2007,33(3):293-303.
[22]Powers D M.Evaluation:From precision,recall and f-factor to ROC,informedness,markedness&correlation[J].Journal of M achine Learning Technologies,2011,2(1):2229-3981.