基于案例推理的群体性事件智能决策支持WEB系统研究
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摘要
[目的/意义]我国进入全面深化改革的攻坚阶段,国际国内形势空前复杂。随着互联网技术的发展,群体性事件又出现了诸多值得关注的新特点,要求决策者做到面对事件,实时解算、随机应变、因地制宜,当前群体性事件计算机辅助决策的应用非常有限,基于WEB服务的决策系统亟待研究和开发。[方法/过程]针对群体性事件涉及到的非结构化数据,采用基于案例推理的智能决策支持方法,提取群体性事件的特征要素,整理建立案例数据库,用层次分析法和贝叶斯理论确定特征要素权重,用K-最近邻法进行相似度计算,综合利用信息技术与智能决策技术,对事件信息进行有效处理,预测其发展态势及未来可能的发展情景,并实时形成可操作性的应急决策方案,预防和控制群体性事件进一步发展,实现有效应急决策管理。[结果/结论]设计基于.net平台的SQL Server+WCF+Silverlight的Web服务系统,包含案例管理、案例推理、用户管理、交流学习和系统帮助5个模块,以求成为政府管理者,决策处置群体性事件,整理总结相关经验原则和学习的助手。
[Purpose/Significance]Our country has entered a critical stage of comprehensively deepening reform,and the international and domestic situations are unprecedented complicated,which requires that policy makers could act according to circumstances and give solutions in real-time facing events.While,it is very limited to apply the IDSS(Intelligent Decision Support System)to disposal of group events,especially,the system based on web is yet to be investigated and developed.[Method/Process]For unstructured data involved in group events,CBR technique and other methods of database,statistics and et al are adopted to implement intelligent decision,process information of events effectively,predict the development situation and possible development scenarios for the future,and propose recommendation of operability in real-time for effective emergency management to prevent and control the further development of group events.[Result/Conclusion]Furthermore,an intelligent decision support web service system based on the.net framework of SQL Server+WCF+ Silverlight has been developed,including such five modules as case management,case-based reasoning,user management,exchange and system help,to help government regulators to make decisions in dealing with group events and summarize the relevant experience and principle,and learn from each other.
[Purpose/Significance]Our country has entered a critical stage of comprehensively deepening reform,and the international and domestic situations are unprecedented complicated,which requires that policy makers could act according to circumstances and give solutions in real-time facing events.While,it is very limited to apply the IDSS(Intelligent Decision Support System)to disposal of group events,especially,the system based on web is yet to be investigated and developed.[Method/Process]For unstructured data involved in group events,CBR technique and other methods of database,statistics and et al are adopted to implement intelligent decision,process information of events effectively,predict the development situation and possible development scenarios for the future,and propose recommendation of operability in real-time for effective emergency management to prevent and control the further development of group events.[Result/Conclusion]Furthermore,an intelligent decision support web service system based on the.net framework of SQL Server+WCF+ Silverlight has been developed,including such five modules as case management,case-based reasoning,user management,exchange and system help,to help government regulators to make decisions in dealing with group events and summarize the relevant experience and principle,and learn from each other.
引文
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[2]http://js.people.com.cn/n2/2016/0713/c360299-28659767.html.
[3]http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_483f705d0102wd7l.html.
[4]吴开松,李华胤,徐晓晨.群体性事件的社会心理因素研究[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2014:1-5..
[5]袁晓芳.基于情景分析与CBR的非常规突发事件应急决策关键技术[D].西安:西安科技大学,2011.6.
[6]马晓亮,刘然.突发群体性事件中政府危机管理问题研究-以重庆万盛群众聚集事件为例[D].武汉:湖北大学,2013.4.
[7]王赐江.冲突与治理:中国群体性事件考察与分析[M].北京:人民出版社,2013.2.
[8]陈秀梅.冲突与治理-群体性事件的治理与利益表达机制的有效性研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2015.1.
[9]曾庆香,李蔚.群体性事件:信息传播与政府应对[M].北京:中国书籍出版社,2010.8.
[10]崔亚东.群体性事件应急管理与社会治理-瓮安之乱到瓮安之治[M].北京:中共中央党校出版社,2013.12.
[11]李玲玲.基于案例推理的群体性事件智能决策支持系统研究[D].西安:西安科技大学,2012.06.30.
[12]Michael M Richter,Rosina O Weber.Case-based reasoning[M].Springer Heidelberg NewYork Dordrecht London,2013.
[13]李锋刚.基于案例推理的智能决策技术[M].合肥:安徽大学出版社,2011.01.01.
[14]瞿琼丹,沙勇忠.基于本体的群体性突发事件案例推理研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2012.6.
[15]魏永超.银光志-Silverlight3.0开发详解与最佳实践[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2009.12.
[16]Karli Watson,Christian Nagel,齐立波译.C#入门经典(第5版)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2010.12.
[17]Christian Nagel,Bill Evjen,Jay Glynn李铭译.C#高级编程(第7版)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2010.11.
[18]Chris Anderson.Pro.Business applications with silverlight 5(2rd)[M].UC Berkeley:Apress,2012.