近50a来黄土高原地区暖冬现象的气候特征
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摘要
利用黄土高原1965—2014年冬季气温观测数据,根据中国国家标准《暖冬等级》中单站、区域暖冬等级标准,综合采用反距离加权插值、Mann-Kendall突变分析与小波分析等方法,分析黄土高原近50 a冬季平均气温的变化趋势及单站暖冬、区域暖冬事件的气候变化特征。结果表明:近50 a来黄土高原冬季平均气温呈上升趋势,升幅为0.07~0.695℃·(10a)~(-1),尤其近30 a升温显著,进入相对暖期,中部地区升温最显著,西部、南部地区升温较低;黄土高原单站暖冬指数呈现上升趋势,升幅为0.07~0.70℃·(10a)~(-1),中部大部分地区暖冬指数增幅最大,南部地区次之,西部地区增幅最小;各站点暖冬频率在40%~63%,强暖冬频率在13%~53%,单站暖冬频率呈中、西部高,东南边缘地区低的特点;区域暖冬指数呈上升趋势,增长幅度为11.8%·(10a)~(-1),共发生17次区域暖冬,6次区域强暖冬,区域暖冬事件以9 a为第一主周期,4 a为第二主周期;单站暖冬、区域暖冬均主要发生在20世纪80年代中后期,尤其在90年代末至21世纪初。
Based on the monthly average temperature data over the Loess Plateau during the period from 1964 to2014,the variation trend of winter mean temperature over the plateau in recent 50 years was analyzed using the methods of statistical analysis and Mann-kendall mutation analysis. According to the warm winter grades of China national standard referred to those at single stations and the regional warm winter grade standards,the warm winters for single stations were divided into two grades designated as the "week warm winters"and "strong warm winters",and the regional warm winters were analyzed based on the warm winters at single stations. In accordance with these standards,the warm winters were analyzed using the methods of Inverse distance weighted interpolation,wavelet analysis,etc. The results showed that the mean temperature in winter was increased with a rate of 0. 07- 0. 695℃ ·( 10a)~(-1)in recent half century,especially in recent 30 years,it was significantly warming up over the Loess Plateau,and it entered a relatively warm period. The temperature increase was the highest over the central Loess Plateau,but relatively low in the west and south. There was an obvious increase trend of warm winter index with rates of 0. 07- 0. 70 ℃ ·( 10a)~(-1)for single stations. The increase of warm winter index was the highest in the most of the central area,it was followed by the south area and was the lowest in the west area. The frequencies of warm winters and strong warm winters at single stations varied in ranges of 40%- 63% and 13%- 53%,respectively. The warm winter frequency at single stations was high in the central and western regions but low in the southeast marginal zone. Regional warm winter index was in an obvious increase trend with a rate of 11. 8% ·( 10a)~(-1). There were 17 regional warm winters and 6 regional strong warm winters in recent 50 years. Moreover,there were 4- and 9- year periodic variations of regional warm winter,the warm winters occurred mainly in the period from the mid- to late- 1980 s,especially in the period from late- 1990 s to the early 21 th century.
Based on the monthly average temperature data over the Loess Plateau during the period from 1964 to2014,the variation trend of winter mean temperature over the plateau in recent 50 years was analyzed using the methods of statistical analysis and Mann-kendall mutation analysis. According to the warm winter grades of China national standard referred to those at single stations and the regional warm winter grade standards,the warm winters for single stations were divided into two grades designated as the "week warm winters"and "strong warm winters",and the regional warm winters were analyzed based on the warm winters at single stations. In accordance with these standards,the warm winters were analyzed using the methods of Inverse distance weighted interpolation,wavelet analysis,etc. The results showed that the mean temperature in winter was increased with a rate of 0. 07- 0. 695℃ ·( 10a)~(-1)in recent half century,especially in recent 30 years,it was significantly warming up over the Loess Plateau,and it entered a relatively warm period. The temperature increase was the highest over the central Loess Plateau,but relatively low in the west and south. There was an obvious increase trend of warm winter index with rates of 0. 07- 0. 70 ℃ ·( 10a)~(-1)for single stations. The increase of warm winter index was the highest in the most of the central area,it was followed by the south area and was the lowest in the west area. The frequencies of warm winters and strong warm winters at single stations varied in ranges of 40%- 63% and 13%- 53%,respectively. The warm winter frequency at single stations was high in the central and western regions but low in the southeast marginal zone. Regional warm winter index was in an obvious increase trend with a rate of 11. 8% ·( 10a)~(-1). There were 17 regional warm winters and 6 regional strong warm winters in recent 50 years. Moreover,there were 4- and 9- year periodic variations of regional warm winter,the warm winters occurred mainly in the period from the mid- to late- 1980 s,especially in the period from late- 1990 s to the early 21 th century.
引文
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〔3〕唐红玉,翟盘茂,王振宇.1951—2002年中国平均最高、最低气温及日较差变化〔J〕.气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):728-735.〔Tang Hongyu,Zhai Panmao,Wang Zhenyu.On change in mean maximum temperature,minimum temperature and diurnal range in China during 1951-2002〔J〕.Climatic and Environmental Research,2005,10(4):728-735.〕
〔4〕中国气象局.中国气候与环境演变〔M〕.北京:气象出版社,2006.〔China Meteorological Administration.Climate and Environment in China〔M〕.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2006.〕
〔5〕徐虹,余凌翔.云南1971—2006年暖冬的时空能够变化分析〔J〕.云南地理环境研究,2009,21(6):22-24.〔Xu Hong,Yu Lingxiang.Spatial-temporal changes of warmer winter in Yunnan during 1971-2006〔J〕.Yunnan Geographic Environment Research,2009,21(6):22-24.〕
〔6〕杨志刚,杜军,袁雷,等.1971—2010年西藏怒江流域冷暖冬的时空变化分析〔J〕.冰川冻土,2012,34(4):775-781.〔Yang Zhigang,Du Jun,Yuan Lei,et al.Temporal-spatial changes of cold and warm winters over the Nujiang river basin in Tibet from 1971to 2010〔J〕.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2012,34(4):775-781.〕
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〔8〕王馥棠,刘文泉.黄土高原农业生产气候脆弱性的初步研究〔J〕.气候与环境研究,2003,8(1):91-100.〔Wang Futang,Liu Wenquan.A preliminary study of climate vulnerability of agro-production in the Loess Plateau〔J〕.Climatic and Environment Research,2003,8(1):91-100.〕
〔9〕林而达,许吟隆,蒋金荷,等.气候变化国家评估报告(II):气候变化的影响与适应〔J〕.气候变化研究进展,2006,2(2):51-56.〔Lin Erda,Xu Yinlong,Jiang Jinhe,et al.National assessment report of climate change(II):Climate change impacts and adaptation〔J〕.Advances in Climate Change Research,2006,2(2):51-56.〕
〔10〕Alexander L V,Zhang X,Peterson T C,et al.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation〔J〕.Journal of Geophysical Research,2006,111(D05109):1-22.
〔11〕Wang W,Chen X,Shi P,et al.Detecting changes in extreme precipitation and extreme streamflow in the Dongjiang River Basin in southern China〔J〕.Hydrology and Earth System Science,2008,12(1):207-221.
〔12〕肖国举,张强,王静.全球气候变化对农业生态系统的影响研究进展〔J〕.应用生态学报,2007,18(8):1 877-1 885.〔Xiao Guoju,Zhang Qiang,Wang Jing.Impact of global climate change on agro-ecosystem:A review〔J〕.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecologic,2007,18(8):1 877-1 885.〕
〔13〕王麒翔,范晓辉,王孟本.近50年黄土高原地区降水时空变化特征〔J〕.生态学报,2011,31(19):5 512-5 523.〔Wang Qixiang,Fan Xiaohui,Wang Mengben.Precipitation trends during1961-2010 in the Loess Plateau region of China〔J〕.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2011,31(19):5 512-5 523.〕
〔14〕张强,王胜.关于黄土高原陆面过程及其观测试验研究〔J〕.地球科学进展,2008,23(2):167-173.〔Zhang Qiang,Wang Sheng.On land surface processes and its experimental study in Chinese Loess Plateau〔J〕.Advances in Earth Science,2008,23(2):167-173.〕
〔15〕王毅荣,王强,江少波.黄土高原气候环境演变研究〔J〕.气象科技进展,2011,1(1):38-41.〔Wang Yirong,Wang Qiang,Jiang Shaobo.A review of recent study advances in climatic environment on China Loess Plateau〔J〕.Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2011,1(1):38-41.〕
〔16〕姚玉璧,李耀辉,王毅荣,等.黄土高原气候与气候生产力对全球气候变化的响应〔J〕.干旱地区农业研究,2005,23(2):202-208.〔Yao Yubi,Li Yaohui,Wang Yirong,et al.Effects of the climatic productivity in the Loess Plateau of China on global climate change〔J〕.Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2005,23(2):202-208.〕
〔17〕龚道溢,王邵武.近百年我国的异常暖冬与冷冬〔J〕.灾害学,1999,14(2):63-68.〔Gong Daoyi,Wang Shaowu.Abnormal warm and cold winters in China during the past century〔J〕.Journal of Catastrophology,1999,14(2):63-68.〕
〔18〕王凌,张强,陈峪,等.1956—2005年中国暖冬和冬季温度变化〔J〕.气候变化研究进展,2007,3(1):26-30.〔Wang Ling,Zhang Qiang,Chen Yu,et al.Changes of warmer winter and winter temperature over China in the past 50 years〔J〕.Advances in Climate Change Research,2007,3(1):26-30.〕
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