陕甘宁地区暖冬气候特征分析
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摘要
利用陕甘宁地区22个气象观测站1961—2015年的冬季日气温资料,分析该地区的冬季气温变化,并依据中国国家标准《暖冬等级》,分析陕甘宁地区暖冬事件的变化特征,结果表明:近55年陕甘宁地区冬季平均气温呈明显的升高趋势,升幅为0.451℃/10a,1980年后冬季气温增加更加明显。区域暖冬指数表现为显著上升趋势,线性趋势为10%/10a,各站点的暖冬发生频率在22%~33%之间。陕甘宁地区区域性暖冬事件发生共16次(年),其中区域强暖冬事件共5次(年),暖冬强度最大、范围最广,暖冬现象存在2 a、4 a短时间以及9 a、15 a长时间振荡周期。利用NCEP再分析资料进一步分析表明,在温室效应导致全球变暖的大背景下,500 hpa位势高度场偏高,东亚大槽减弱,冷空气活动减弱以及厄尔尼诺现象的发生可能是造成陕甘宁地区暖冬事件发生的主要原因。
Using winter daily temperature data of 22 meteorological observation stations in ShaanxiGansu-Ningxia region during 1961 and 2015,the variations of winter temperature are analyzed. According to the China national standard,its warm winter characteristics are analyzed. The results show that its mean winter temperature has increased with a rate of 0. 451 ℃/10 a in recent half century,especially in recent 30 years. Regional warm winter index has a significant rising trend at a decadal rate of 10% and frequency of single station warm winter is 22% ~ 33%. There are 19 regional warm winter years over the 55 years with 5 strong warm winters which is the most extensive and strongest. There exists the oscillation period of 3 years,5 years and 10 years in warm winter phenomenon. By using the NCEP reanalysis data,further analysis shows that under the background of global warming which caused by the greenhouse effect,the high temperature was caused by higher geopotential height at 500 hpa over Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia,weakening of the East Asian Trough at 500 hpa,less frequent activity of strong cold air current than those in normal years and the occurrence of El Nino phenomenon are probably the main reason of the warm winter events in the region.
Using winter daily temperature data of 22 meteorological observation stations in ShaanxiGansu-Ningxia region during 1961 and 2015,the variations of winter temperature are analyzed. According to the China national standard,its warm winter characteristics are analyzed. The results show that its mean winter temperature has increased with a rate of 0. 451 ℃/10 a in recent half century,especially in recent 30 years. Regional warm winter index has a significant rising trend at a decadal rate of 10% and frequency of single station warm winter is 22% ~ 33%. There are 19 regional warm winter years over the 55 years with 5 strong warm winters which is the most extensive and strongest. There exists the oscillation period of 3 years,5 years and 10 years in warm winter phenomenon. By using the NCEP reanalysis data,further analysis shows that under the background of global warming which caused by the greenhouse effect,the high temperature was caused by higher geopotential height at 500 hpa over Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia,weakening of the East Asian Trough at 500 hpa,less frequent activity of strong cold air current than those in normal years and the occurrence of El Nino phenomenon are probably the main reason of the warm winter events in the region.
引文
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[3]周正朝,胡娜娜,周华.西安市气温和降水变化趋势分析[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(1):27-34.
[4]杜军,杨志刚,石磊,等.近50年西藏冷暖冬的气候变化特征[J].地理学报,2011,66(7):885-894.
[5]陈峪,任国玉,王凌,等.近56年中国暖冬气候事件变化[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(5):539-545.
[6]王德丽,殷淑燕,王海燕,等.近50年陕北地区的气候变化[J].干旱区研究,2011,28(2):262-267.
[7]王涛,杨强,于冬雪.陕北黄土高原地区极端气温事件变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(21):239-243.
[8]赵光平,杨淑萍,穆建华,等.全球变化对宁夏近40 a极端气温变化的影响[J].中国沙漠,2009,29(6):1207-1211.
[9]王素艳,李欣,郑广芬,等.21世纪以来宁夏冬季气温异常及500 hpa环流特征[J].干旱气象,2014,32(4):569-575.
[10]陈峪,任国玉,王凌,等.近56年中国暖冬气候事件变化[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(5):539-545.
[11]陈峪,王凌,邹旭恺,等.GB/T 21983—2008暖冬等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2008.
[12]张宁,张明军,周堂,等.陕北地区冬季气温的时空变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(11):132-137.
[13]龚道溢,王绍武.近百年北极涛动对中国冬季气候的影响[J].地理学报,2003,58(4):559-568.
[14]沈永平,王国亚.IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(5):1068-1076.
[15]严艳.陕甘宁边区经济发展与产业布局研究(1937—1950)[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2005.
[16]杨龙,赵景波.ENSO事件对河西走廊气候与气候灾害的影响[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(6):949-955.
[17]孙林海,赵振国.我国暖冬气候及其成因分析[J].气象,2004,30(12):57-60.
[18]何春,何金海.冬季北极涛动和华北冬季气温变化关系研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(1):1-7.