暖冬骤增对江汉平原越冬作物的不利影响初探
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摘要
在全球气候变暖的大背景下,中国冬季增温明显,利用江汉平原钟祥国家基本气象站66年气象资料,分析了暖、常、冷冬变化趋势与相关特征,表明暖冬正骤然增加,且冬季气温有新变化趋势,这将导致油菜、小麦等越冬作物生育进程加快,过早进入营养生长与生殖生长并进期,因抗寒力减弱导致冻害,也有利于病虫害发生。通过对不同类型冬季做马尔科夫链概率转移分析,可以制作冷、常、暖年的趋势预报,以便于提前采取相应的对策。
In the background of global warming, the domestic weather increase is especially evident in winter. Through the analysis of 66 years' meteorological materials in Zhongxiang National Basic Meteorological Station of Jianghan Plain, the trend and features of warm, normal, and cold winters are shown to testify the acceleration of warm winter as well as the new trend of climate change in winter. It would definitely speed up the growth process of winter crop(like rape, wheat, etc.) and step into the vegetative growth and reproductive development stages too early to resist cold, which would cause frozen damage and potential pest/disease damage. By means of Chapman-Kolmogorov transition probability analysis of different kinds of winter,we could make trend forecast of warm, normal, and cold year so as to take corresponding measures in advance.
In the background of global warming, the domestic weather increase is especially evident in winter. Through the analysis of 66 years' meteorological materials in Zhongxiang National Basic Meteorological Station of Jianghan Plain, the trend and features of warm, normal, and cold winters are shown to testify the acceleration of warm winter as well as the new trend of climate change in winter. It would definitely speed up the growth process of winter crop(like rape, wheat, etc.) and step into the vegetative growth and reproductive development stages too early to resist cold, which would cause frozen damage and potential pest/disease damage. By means of Chapman-Kolmogorov transition probability analysis of different kinds of winter,we could make trend forecast of warm, normal, and cold year so as to take corresponding measures in advance.
引文
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