1960—2013年福建省台风暴雨时空特征研究
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摘要
基于1960—2013年福建省降水资料和台风资料,采用客观天气图分析法(OSAT)分离得到台风降水,选取降水序列第95百分位数作为台风暴雨阈值,识别福建省的台风暴雨,运用强度-面积-持续时间方法(IAD)探究台风暴雨事件的暴雨强度、影响面积和最强中心,系统分析了台风暴雨的时空变化特征。结果表明:福建多年平均台风暴雨天数和日均台风暴雨降水量由东部沿海向西北内陆逐渐减小;台风暴雨体积降水量、台风暴雨天数、过程最大体积降水量和日最大体积降水量均呈现不同程度的增加趋势;1980—1989年是台风暴雨影响较弱的时期,影响福建的台风暴雨多发生在7—9月,8月是影响最严重的月份;台风暴雨事件最大强度为8.47,最大影响面积为118 400 km~2,台风暴雨事件最强中心均分布在沿海县市。
Typhoon precipitation was obtained through the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique method(OSAT) based on the precipitation data and typhoon data from 1960 to 2013 in Fujian Province. The 95 th percentile of precipitation series was selected as the threshold of typhoon rainstorm precipitation and used to define the typhoon rainstorm in Fujian Province. The Intensity-Area-Duration method(IAD) was also adopted to investigate the intensity, influence area and center of typhoon rainstorm events. Besides, the spatial and temporal characteristics of typhoon rainstorm events were analyzed in detail. The results showed that the multi-year average typhoon rainstorm days and daily typhoon rainstorm precipitation both gradually decreased frat the eastern coastal region to the northwestern inland region of Fujian. Typhoon rainstorm precipitation volume, typhoon rainstorm days, maximum precipitation volume of a certain process and daily maximum precipitation volume all showed increasing trends but to varying degrees. The influence of typhoon rainstorm was relatively weak during the period of 1980—1989. From July to September, Fujian was mostly suffered from the typhoon rainstorm precipitation, where August was the worst. The maximum intensity and maximum affected area of typhoon rainstorm events reached the peak value of 8.47 and 118 400 km~2 respectively, and the centers were mainly located in the coastal counties.
Typhoon precipitation was obtained through the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique method(OSAT) based on the precipitation data and typhoon data from 1960 to 2013 in Fujian Province. The 95 th percentile of precipitation series was selected as the threshold of typhoon rainstorm precipitation and used to define the typhoon rainstorm in Fujian Province. The Intensity-Area-Duration method(IAD) was also adopted to investigate the intensity, influence area and center of typhoon rainstorm events. Besides, the spatial and temporal characteristics of typhoon rainstorm events were analyzed in detail. The results showed that the multi-year average typhoon rainstorm days and daily typhoon rainstorm precipitation both gradually decreased frat the eastern coastal region to the northwestern inland region of Fujian. Typhoon rainstorm precipitation volume, typhoon rainstorm days, maximum precipitation volume of a certain process and daily maximum precipitation volume all showed increasing trends but to varying degrees. The influence of typhoon rainstorm was relatively weak during the period of 1980—1989. From July to September, Fujian was mostly suffered from the typhoon rainstorm precipitation, where August was the worst. The maximum intensity and maximum affected area of typhoon rainstorm events reached the peak value of 8.47 and 118 400 km~2 respectively, and the centers were mainly located in the coastal counties.
引文
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[25] 王晓, 余晖, 鲍旭炜, 等.“菲特”(1323)台风降水的极端性分析[J]. 气象科学, 2017, 37(4): 514-521.
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[27] 赵琳娜, 白雪梅, 邢程, 等. 中国东南地区夏季台风小时降水概率分布特征[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2017, 36(2): 97-107.
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[31] 廖荣伟, 曹丽娟, 张冬斌, 等. 中国地面气温和降水网格化数据精度比较 [J]. 气象科技, 2017, 45 (2): 364-374.
[32] 景丞, 姜彤, 王艳君, 等. 中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究 [J]. 气象学报, 2016, 74 (4): 572-582.
[33] 陈静, 刘洪滨, 王艳君, 等. 华北平原干旱事件特征及农业用地暴露度演变分析 [J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37 (5): 587-598.
[34] 林小红, 任福民, 刘爱鸣, 等. 近46年影响福建的台风降水的气候特征分析 [J]. 热带气象学报, 2008, 24 (4): 411-416.
[35] 邱文玉. 我国东南沿海台风极端降水特征及成因初探 [D]. 南京:南京信息工程大学, 2014.
[36] REN F M, WU G X, DONG W J, et al. Changes in Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Over China [J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33 (20): 131-145.
[2] IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2013 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) [M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
[3] IPCC SREX. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [M]. London: Cambridge University Press, 2012.
[4] 孔锋, 方建, 吕丽莉. 1961-2015年中国暴雨变化诊断及其与多种气候因子的关联性研究 [J]. 热带气象学报, 2018, 34 (1): 34-47.
[5] EMANUEL K A. The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate [C]//Aip Conference. American Institute of Physics, 1992: 25-33.
[6] EMANUEL K A. The Maximum Intensity of Hurricanes [J]. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 1998,45: 1143-1155.
[7] HOLLAND G J. The Maximum Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones [J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1997,54(6): 2519-2541.
[8] ROGERS R, CHEN S, TENERELLI J, et al. A Numerical Study of the Impact of Vertical Shear on the Distribution of Rainfall in Hurricane Bonnie (1998) [J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2003, 131(8): 21-38.
[9] CHARMAINE N F, GREG J H, PETER T M. Mechanisms for the generation of mesoscale vorticity features in tropical cyclone rainbands [J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2006,134: 2649-2669.
[10]WANG C C, KUO H C, JOHNSON R H, et al. A numerical study of convection in rainbands of Typhoon Morakot (2009) with extreme rainfall: roles of pressure perturbations with low-level wind maxima [J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2015, 15(6):8479-8523.
[11] 房永生, 黄菲, 陈月亮, 等. 夏半年中国总降水、极端降水及台风降水的趋势分析 [J]. 中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 45 (6): 12-18.
[12] 尹宜舟, 肖风劲, 罗勇, 等. 我国热带气旋潜在影响力指数分析 [J].地理学报, 2011, 66 (3): 367-375.
[13] 陈香. 福建省台风灾害时空变化分析[J]. 灾害学, 2007, 22 (4): 66-70.
[14] 林毅, 陈思学, 吕思思. 1601号“尼伯特”台风特大暴雨的中尺度系统特征与成因分析 [J].暴雨灾害, 2017, 36 (6) :542-549.
[15] 陈秋萍, 陈敏艳, 刘爱鸣,等. 登陆福建热带气旋短时强降水特征 [J]. 气象研究与应用, 2016, 37(3):24-28.
[16] 朱志存, 黄强, 尹宜舟, 等. 登陆中国大陆不同区间的热带气旋特征初步分析 [J]. 热带气象学报, 2012, 28 (1): 41-49.
[17] 韩晖.近50年中国台风暴雨研究 [D]. 北京:北京师范大学, 2005.
[18] YING M, ZHANG W, YU H, et al. An Overview of the China Meteorological Administration Tropical Cyclone Database [J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2014, 31 (2): 287-301.
[19] REN F M, WANG Y M, WANG X L. Estimating tropical cyclone precipitation from station observations [J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2007, 24 (4): 700-711.
[20] ZHAI P M, ZHANG X B, WAN H, et al. Trends in Total Precipitation and Frequency of Daily Precipitation Extremes over China [J]. Journal of Climate, 2005, 18 (18): 1096-1108.
[21] 史培军, 孔锋, 方佳毅. 中国年代际暴雨时空变化格局[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(11): 1281-1290.
[22] 任福民, 高辉, 刘绿柳, 等. 极端天气气候事件监测与预测研究进展及其应用综述 [J].气象, 2014, 40 (7): 860-874.
[23] NANDINTSETSEG B, GREENE J S, GOULDEN C E. Trends in extreme daily precipitation and temperature near Lake H?vsg?l, Mongolia [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2007, 27(3): 341-347.
[24] LI F, COLLINS W D, WEHNER M F, et al. Impact of horizontal resolution on simulation of precipitation extremes in an aqua‐planet version of Community Atmospheric Model (CAM3) [J]. Tellus A:Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2011, 63(5): 884-892.
[25] 王晓, 余晖, 鲍旭炜, 等.“菲特”(1323)台风降水的极端性分析[J]. 气象科学, 2017, 37(4): 514-521.
[26] 江漫, 漆梁波. 1959-2012年我国极端降水台风的气候特征分析 [J]. 气象, 2016,42 (10): 1230-1236.
[27] 赵琳娜, 白雪梅, 邢程, 等. 中国东南地区夏季台风小时降水概率分布特征[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2017, 36(2): 97-107.
[28] AIKINSON P M, LLOYD C D. Mapping Precipitation in Switzerland with ordinary and indicator Kriging [J]. Journal of Geographic Information and Decision Analysis, 1998, 2 (2): 65-76.
[29] HUTCHINSON M F. ANUSPLIN Version 4. 3 User Guide [M]. Canberra: The Australia National University , Center for Resource and Environment Studies, 2004.
[30] 刘志红, MCVICAR T R, LI L T , 等. 基于ANUSPLIN的时间序列气象要素空间插值[J]. 西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版), 2008, 36 (10): 227-234.
[31] 廖荣伟, 曹丽娟, 张冬斌, 等. 中国地面气温和降水网格化数据精度比较 [J]. 气象科技, 2017, 45 (2): 364-374.
[32] 景丞, 姜彤, 王艳君, 等. 中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究 [J]. 气象学报, 2016, 74 (4): 572-582.
[33] 陈静, 刘洪滨, 王艳君, 等. 华北平原干旱事件特征及农业用地暴露度演变分析 [J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37 (5): 587-598.
[34] 林小红, 任福民, 刘爱鸣, 等. 近46年影响福建的台风降水的气候特征分析 [J]. 热带气象学报, 2008, 24 (4): 411-416.
[35] 邱文玉. 我国东南沿海台风极端降水特征及成因初探 [D]. 南京:南京信息工程大学, 2014.
[36] REN F M, WU G X, DONG W J, et al. Changes in Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Over China [J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33 (20): 131-145.