西北干旱区气候和土地利用变化对水沙运移的影响——以小南川流域为例
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摘要
认识区域水沙运移规律及其对气候和土地利用变化的响应能够为水土流失防治提供理论依据,是水土资源综合开发的重要前提.本研究以1963—2013年逐月实测气象、径流和泥沙资料为基础,结合20世纪80年代和2000年土地利用数据和归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析和突变检验方法,系统分析了西北干旱区典型小流域——小南川流域的气候和水沙长期变化特征,并识别了研究区土地利用及植被覆盖度变化特征.在对单要素变化充分解析的基础上,利用多元线性回归等方法,定量探讨了气候和土地利用变化对小南川流域水沙运移的影响机制,并明确了关键作用因子.结果表明:小南川流域气温向两极化发展,降水量逐渐增加,总体气候变化趋势朝向暖湿方向,极端气候事件发生频率增加,且在20世纪90年代发生突变后,其变化速度和程度均进一步加剧.自20世纪80年代以来,随着经济社会发展,流域内耕地和城镇扩张,林地增加,自然生态环境向良性发展.在土地利用和植被覆盖度变化的主导驱动作用下,流域径流量和输沙量分别以1.7×106m3·(10 a)-1和1.5×108kg·(10 a)-1的平均速率呈减少趋势.定量化研究结果揭示了植被覆盖度和月平均最高气温是影响该区径流变化的最关键因子,而植被覆盖度和日最大降水量是影响输沙变化的最关键因子.在当前气候变化背景下,生态修复是防止干旱区流域水土流失的最有效途径之一.
Understanding regional water and sediment transport patterns and their responses to cli-mate and land use changes can provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of soil ero-sion, and is an important prerequisite for the integrated development of land and water resources.Based on monthly monitoring meteorological, runoff, and sediment data from 1963 to 2013, com-bined with the land use data in the 1980 s and 2000 and NDVI data, using the Mann-Kendall trendanalysis and abrupt change test method, we systematically analyzed the long-term variations of theclimate, runoff and sediment transport, with the changes of land use and vegetation coverage beingidentified in the Xiaonanchuan( XNC) River basin, a typical watershed in the Northwest aridregion. Based on the analysis of single element change, the impacts of climate and land use changeon water and sediment transport were quantified by the multiple linear regression analysis. Simulta-neously, the key action factors were identified. Results showed that air temperature was developingto the polarization, the precipitation increased gradually. A generally warm and wet tendency of cli-mate change and an increased frequency of extreme climate events were found in the XNC Riverbasin. Moreover, the speed and magnitude of climate change were intensified after the 1990 s, which was the abrupt change point of the climate. Since the 1980 s, with economic and social develop-ment, the area of arable land and built land expanded, that of the forest area increased, and theecological environments were improved in the XNC River basin. Under the dominant driving effectsof land use and vegetation coverage change, the runoff and sediment load gradually reduced with theaverage rate of 1.7×106 m3·(10 a)-1 and 1.5×108 m3·(10 a)-1, respectively. Quantifying theinfluence of land use and climate change on the water and sediment transport indicated that vegeta-tion cove-rage and mean daily maximum temperature were the two key factors affecting the runoffchange, while the vegetation coverage and maximum daily precipitation were the two key factorsaffecting the sediment load change. Under the condition of current climate change, ecological resto-ration could be one of the most effective ways to prevent water and soil losses in the arid area.
Understanding regional water and sediment transport patterns and their responses to cli-mate and land use changes can provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of soil ero-sion, and is an important prerequisite for the integrated development of land and water resources.Based on monthly monitoring meteorological, runoff, and sediment data from 1963 to 2013, com-bined with the land use data in the 1980 s and 2000 and NDVI data, using the Mann-Kendall trendanalysis and abrupt change test method, we systematically analyzed the long-term variations of theclimate, runoff and sediment transport, with the changes of land use and vegetation coverage beingidentified in the Xiaonanchuan( XNC) River basin, a typical watershed in the Northwest aridregion. Based on the analysis of single element change, the impacts of climate and land use changeon water and sediment transport were quantified by the multiple linear regression analysis. Simulta-neously, the key action factors were identified. Results showed that air temperature was developingto the polarization, the precipitation increased gradually. A generally warm and wet tendency of cli-mate change and an increased frequency of extreme climate events were found in the XNC Riverbasin. Moreover, the speed and magnitude of climate change were intensified after the 1990 s, which was the abrupt change point of the climate. Since the 1980 s, with economic and social develop-ment, the area of arable land and built land expanded, that of the forest area increased, and theecological environments were improved in the XNC River basin. Under the dominant driving effectsof land use and vegetation coverage change, the runoff and sediment load gradually reduced with theaverage rate of 1.7×106 m3·(10 a)-1 and 1.5×108 m3·(10 a)-1, respectively. Quantifying theinfluence of land use and climate change on the water and sediment transport indicated that vegeta-tion cove-rage and mean daily maximum temperature were the two key factors affecting the runoffchange, while the vegetation coverage and maximum daily precipitation were the two key factorsaffecting the sediment load change. Under the condition of current climate change, ecological resto-ration could be one of the most effective ways to prevent water and soil losses in the arid area.
引文
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[12]Liu X-Y(刘晓燕),Liu C-M(刘昌明),Yang S-T(杨胜天),et al.Influences of shrubs-herbs-arbor vege-tation coverage on the runoff based on the remote sensingdata in Loess Plateau.Acta Geographica Sinica(地理学报),2014,69(11):1595-1603(in Chinese)
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[14]Yuan Y-Z(袁宇志),Zhang Z-D(张正栋),Meng J-H(蒙金华).Impact of changes in land use and climateon the runoff in Liuxihe Watershed based on SWATmodel.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology(应用生态学报),2015,26(4):989-998(in Chinese)
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[17]Cao Z-H(曹梓豪),Zhao Q-H(赵清贺),Ding S-Y(丁圣彦),et al.Effect of slope gradient and vegetationcover on sediment yielding characteristics of the riparianslope.Journal of Natural Resources(自然资源学报),2017,32(11):1892-1904(in Chinese)
[18]Yu G-A(余国安),Li Z-W(李志威),Huang H-Q(黄河清),et al.Human impacts on fluvial processes ina very arid environment:Case of Tarim River in China.Advances in Water Science(水科学进展),2017,28(2):183-192(in Chinese)
[19]Zhang T-F(张调风),Zhu X-D(朱西德),Wang Y-J(王永剑),et al.The impact of climate variability andhuman activity on runoff changes in the Huangshui RiverBasin.Resources Science(资源科学),2014,36(11):2256-2262(in Chinese)
[20]Yang F(杨芳).Water resources and water environment in Huangshui River Basin,Qinghai.Journal of Arid resources and environment(干旱区资源与环境),1994,8(2):57-62(in Chinese)
[21]Wang Y-J(王亚军),Zhou C-C(周陈超),Jia S-F(贾绍凤),et al.Simulation and assessment of naturalrunoff in Huangshui River Basin based on SWAT.Research of Soil and Water Conservation(水土保持研究),2007,14(6):428-432(in Chinese)
[22]Zhao Z-L(赵资乐).Sediment in Huangshui main-stream in Qinghai and its formative cause.Research of Soil and Water Conservation(水土保持研究),2004,11(1):116-118(in Chinese)
[23]Zhao C-C(赵串串),Dong X(董旭),Xin W-R(辛文荣),et al.Effect on soil and water conservationfrom different models of conversion of farmland to forestin Huangshui River at Qinghai.Journal of Soil and Water Conservation(水土保持学报),2009,23(5):26-29(in Chinese)
[24]Feng S-C(冯仕超),Gao X-H(高小红),Gu J(顾娟),et al.Land use spatial distribution modeling basedon CLUE-S model in the Huangshui River Basin.Acta Ecologica Sinica(生态学报),2013,33(3):985-997(in Chinese)
[25]Zhang Y-J(张艳娇),Gao X-H(高小红),Li Q-J(李其江),et al.Runoff simulation of climate changescenarios based on HIMS model in the Huangshui Riverbasin.Progress in Geography(地理科学进展),2013,32(1):59-67(in Chinese)
[26]Qiu Y(邱瑀),Lu C(卢诚),Xu Z(徐泽),et al.Spatio-temporal variation characteristics and waterpollution sources in the Huangshui River Basin.Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae(环境科学学报),2017,37(8):2829-2837(in Chinese)
[27]Mann HB.Nonparametric tests against trend.Econometrica,1945,13:245-259
[28]Kendall MG.Rank Correlation Measures.London:Grif-fin,1975
[29]Wei F-Y(魏凤英).Modern Climate Statistical Diag-nosis and Prediction Technologies.Beijing:China Meteoro-logical Press,2007(in Chinese)
[30]Ma L-J(马丽娟),Zhao J-F(赵景峰),Zhang H-J(张宏俊),et al.Impact of glacier and snow melting onBosten Lake under climate change.Arid Land Geography(干旱区地理),2010,33(2):210-216(in Chinese)
[31]Wang R(王蕊),Yao Z-J(姚治君),Liu Z-F(刘兆飞),et al.Changes in climate and runoff in the middlecourse area of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin.Resources Science(资源科学),2015,37(3):619-628(in Chinese)
[2]Du J-Q(杜加强),Jiaerheng A(贾尔恒·阿哈提),Zhao C-X(赵晨曦),et al.Dynamic changes in vegeta-tion NDVI from 1982 to 2012 and its responses to cli-mate change and human activities in Xinjiang,China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology(应用生态学报),2015,26(12):3567-3578(in Chinese)
[3]Hao F-H(郝芳华),Chen L-Q(陈利群),Liu C-M(刘昌明),et al.Impact of land use change on runoffand sediment yield.Journal of Soil and Water Conservation(水土保持学报),2004,18(3):5-8(in Chi-nese)
[4]Cai T(蔡涛),Li Q-F(李琼芳),Song X-M(宋秀民),et al.Influence of land use change on runoffresponse simulation based on spatial information plat-form.Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)(河海大学学报:自然科学版),2009,37(5):563-567(in Chinese)
[5]Li C-F(李昌峰),Gao J-F(高俊峰),Cao H(曹慧).The situations and trends of the study on the impactof land use change on water resources.Soils(土壤),2002,34(4):191-205(in Chinese)
[6]Githui F,Gitau W,Mutua F,et al.Climate changeimpact on SWAT simulated streamflow in western Kenya.International Journal of Climatology,2009,29:1823-1834
[7]Piao SL,Friedlingstein P,Ciais P,et al.Changes inclimate and land use have a larger direct impact than ris-ing CO2on global river runoff trends.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2007,104:15242-15247
[8]Liu J-Y(刘剑宇),Zhang Q(张强),Chen X(陈喜),et al.Quantitative evaluations of human-and cli-mate-induced impacts on hydrological processes of Chi-na.Acta Geographica Sinica(地理学报),2016,71(11):185-1885(in Chinese)
[9]Wang HJ,Yang ZS,Saito Y,et al.Interannual andseasonal variation of the Huanghe(Yellow River)waterdischarge over the past 50 years:Connections to impactsfrom ENSO events and dams.Global and Planetary Change,2006,50:212-225
[10]Miao CY,Ni JR,Borthwick AG,et al.A preliminaryestimate of human and natural contributions to the chan-ges in water discharge and sediment load in the YellowRiver.Global and Planetary Change,2011,76:196-205
[11]Lin K-R(林凯荣),He Y-H(何艳虎),Chen X-H(陈晓宏).Identifying the quantitative effect of climatechange and human activity on runoff in the DongjiangRiver basin.Journal of Hydraulic Engineering(水利学报),2012,43(11):1312-1321(in Chinese)
[12]Liu X-Y(刘晓燕),Liu C-M(刘昌明),Yang S-T(杨胜天),et al.Influences of shrubs-herbs-arbor vege-tation coverage on the runoff based on the remote sensingdata in Loess Plateau.Acta Geographica Sinica(地理学报),2014,69(11):1595-1603(in Chinese)
[13]Hao Z-C(郝振纯),Su Z-K(苏振宽).Effects of landuse change on runoff in the typical areas in Haihe Riverbasin.Advances in Water Science(水科学进展),2015,26(4):491-499(in Chinese)
[14]Yuan Y-Z(袁宇志),Zhang Z-D(张正栋),Meng J-H(蒙金华).Impact of changes in land use and climateon the runoff in Liuxihe Watershed based on SWATmodel.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology(应用生态学报),2015,26(4):989-998(in Chinese)
[15]Liu X-J(刘晓君),Li Z-B(李占斌),Li P(李鹏),et al.Land use/cover change based relationshipbetween landscape,runoff,and sedimentation.Acta Ecologica Sinica(生态学报),2016,36(18):5691-5700(in Chinese)
[16]Zhong K-Y(钟科元),Chen X-W(陈兴伟),Chen Y(陈莹),et al.Simulation of effects of topography andsoil/land use spatial aggregation on sediment yield andrunoff using AnnAGNPS.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(农业工程学报),2016,32(8):127-135(in Chinese)
[17]Cao Z-H(曹梓豪),Zhao Q-H(赵清贺),Ding S-Y(丁圣彦),et al.Effect of slope gradient and vegetationcover on sediment yielding characteristics of the riparianslope.Journal of Natural Resources(自然资源学报),2017,32(11):1892-1904(in Chinese)
[18]Yu G-A(余国安),Li Z-W(李志威),Huang H-Q(黄河清),et al.Human impacts on fluvial processes ina very arid environment:Case of Tarim River in China.Advances in Water Science(水科学进展),2017,28(2):183-192(in Chinese)
[19]Zhang T-F(张调风),Zhu X-D(朱西德),Wang Y-J(王永剑),et al.The impact of climate variability andhuman activity on runoff changes in the Huangshui RiverBasin.Resources Science(资源科学),2014,36(11):2256-2262(in Chinese)
[20]Yang F(杨芳).Water resources and water environment in Huangshui River Basin,Qinghai.Journal of Arid resources and environment(干旱区资源与环境),1994,8(2):57-62(in Chinese)
[21]Wang Y-J(王亚军),Zhou C-C(周陈超),Jia S-F(贾绍凤),et al.Simulation and assessment of naturalrunoff in Huangshui River Basin based on SWAT.Research of Soil and Water Conservation(水土保持研究),2007,14(6):428-432(in Chinese)
[22]Zhao Z-L(赵资乐).Sediment in Huangshui main-stream in Qinghai and its formative cause.Research of Soil and Water Conservation(水土保持研究),2004,11(1):116-118(in Chinese)
[23]Zhao C-C(赵串串),Dong X(董旭),Xin W-R(辛文荣),et al.Effect on soil and water conservationfrom different models of conversion of farmland to forestin Huangshui River at Qinghai.Journal of Soil and Water Conservation(水土保持学报),2009,23(5):26-29(in Chinese)
[24]Feng S-C(冯仕超),Gao X-H(高小红),Gu J(顾娟),et al.Land use spatial distribution modeling basedon CLUE-S model in the Huangshui River Basin.Acta Ecologica Sinica(生态学报),2013,33(3):985-997(in Chinese)
[25]Zhang Y-J(张艳娇),Gao X-H(高小红),Li Q-J(李其江),et al.Runoff simulation of climate changescenarios based on HIMS model in the Huangshui Riverbasin.Progress in Geography(地理科学进展),2013,32(1):59-67(in Chinese)
[26]Qiu Y(邱瑀),Lu C(卢诚),Xu Z(徐泽),et al.Spatio-temporal variation characteristics and waterpollution sources in the Huangshui River Basin.Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae(环境科学学报),2017,37(8):2829-2837(in Chinese)
[27]Mann HB.Nonparametric tests against trend.Econometrica,1945,13:245-259
[28]Kendall MG.Rank Correlation Measures.London:Grif-fin,1975
[29]Wei F-Y(魏凤英).Modern Climate Statistical Diag-nosis and Prediction Technologies.Beijing:China Meteoro-logical Press,2007(in Chinese)
[30]Ma L-J(马丽娟),Zhao J-F(赵景峰),Zhang H-J(张宏俊),et al.Impact of glacier and snow melting onBosten Lake under climate change.Arid Land Geography(干旱区地理),2010,33(2):210-216(in Chinese)
[31]Wang R(王蕊),Yao Z-J(姚治君),Liu Z-F(刘兆飞),et al.Changes in climate and runoff in the middlecourse area of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin.Resources Science(资源科学),2015,37(3):619-628(in Chinese)