基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型与模拟
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摘要
中国城镇化正处于快速发展阶段,尽管经济和社会发展主控要素还在发挥重要作用,但水资源在生产、生活和生态方面发挥主控作用的局面愈益明显。在中国城镇化系统动力学(system dynamics,SD)模型基础上,从水资源供给、需求和水环境等层面将水资源作为主控要素嵌入原有模型中,拓展出基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型,并对水资源利用进行了多情景模拟。结果表明:(1)系统存流量和灵敏度检验证明模型模拟效果良好,具有可操作性。(2)部门用水效率一定时,产业发展对水资源供需平衡的影响比人口增长更为明显。(3)在实行节水农业、节水工业、高生活需水、高生态环境需水和高再生水利用的综合协调方案中,2050年中国城镇化的发展约共需6789.70亿m~3水资源,基本实现水资源供需平衡。
Currently, China is at the critical stage of rapid industrialization and urbanization.Although the controlling elements of economic and social development are still dominating the process of urbanization, the role of water resources in terms of production, living, and ecology has become increasingly significant. However, there are still two urgent issues that should be dealt with. Specifically, the first research question is how to couple water resources, which is also a controlling element in urbanization, with economy and demography. Second, how to coordinate and optimize the relationship between urbanization and water resources utilization in China is supposed to be further explored. Thus, this study extends the existing China's urbanization system dynamics(SD) by incorporating the key controlling element of water resources into the original SD model from the perspectives of water supply, water demand, and water environment. Then, based on the newly constructed China's urbanization SD model, we simulate the water resources utilization in the future with multi-scenarios of China's urbanization. The conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1) The system stock-flow test and sensitivity analysis demonstrate that China's urbanization SD model based on water resource constraints is effective in simulation and operability.(2) When the water use efficiency of a certain sector keeps constant, the industrial development will exert more significant effects on the water supply and demand balance than population growth, typically in agricultural and industrial water demand.(3) According to the proposed scenario, which assumes the integrated and coordinated development with water-saving agriculture, water-saving industry, high domestic water demand, high ecological and environmental water demand, and highly reclaimed water utilization, China's urbanization growth until 2050 will require approximately6789.70 × 10~8m~3 of water resources in total, consisting of 3642.65 × 10~8m~3, 1215.53 × 10~8m~3,1361.80 × 10~8m~3, and 569.72 × 10~8m~3 for agricultural demand, industrial demand, domestic demand, and ecological and environme ntal demand. The proposed scenario not only contributes to the stable and high-quality economic development and population growth, but also achieves a balance between water supply and water demand, which guarantees the water demand of residents' daily life and the ecological environment as much as possible. Both the highly efficient and sustainable utilization of water resources and virtuous socio-economic development can be realized in this scenario. It should be one of the sustainable ways for China's new urbanization in the future.
Currently, China is at the critical stage of rapid industrialization and urbanization.Although the controlling elements of economic and social development are still dominating the process of urbanization, the role of water resources in terms of production, living, and ecology has become increasingly significant. However, there are still two urgent issues that should be dealt with. Specifically, the first research question is how to couple water resources, which is also a controlling element in urbanization, with economy and demography. Second, how to coordinate and optimize the relationship between urbanization and water resources utilization in China is supposed to be further explored. Thus, this study extends the existing China's urbanization system dynamics(SD) by incorporating the key controlling element of water resources into the original SD model from the perspectives of water supply, water demand, and water environment. Then, based on the newly constructed China's urbanization SD model, we simulate the water resources utilization in the future with multi-scenarios of China's urbanization. The conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1) The system stock-flow test and sensitivity analysis demonstrate that China's urbanization SD model based on water resource constraints is effective in simulation and operability.(2) When the water use efficiency of a certain sector keeps constant, the industrial development will exert more significant effects on the water supply and demand balance than population growth, typically in agricultural and industrial water demand.(3) According to the proposed scenario, which assumes the integrated and coordinated development with water-saving agriculture, water-saving industry, high domestic water demand, high ecological and environmental water demand, and highly reclaimed water utilization, China's urbanization growth until 2050 will require approximately6789.70 × 10~8m~3 of water resources in total, consisting of 3642.65 × 10~8m~3, 1215.53 × 10~8m~3,1361.80 × 10~8m~3, and 569.72 × 10~8m~3 for agricultural demand, industrial demand, domestic demand, and ecological and environme ntal demand. The proposed scenario not only contributes to the stable and high-quality economic development and population growth, but also achieves a balance between water supply and water demand, which guarantees the water demand of residents' daily life and the ecological environment as much as possible. Both the highly efficient and sustainable utilization of water resources and virtuous socio-economic development can be realized in this scenario. It should be one of the sustainable ways for China's new urbanization in the future.
引文
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[15]Panagopoulos G P.Assessing the impacts of socio-economic and hydrological factors on urban water demand:A multivariate statistical approach.Journal of Hydrology,2014,518(2):42-48.
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[19]Bao Chao,Chen Xiaojie.Spatial econometric analysis on influencing factors of water consumption efficiency in urbanizing China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2017,27(12):1450-1462.
[20]Luo Kun,Hu Xuebin,Qiang He,et al.Using multivariate techniques to assess the effects of urbanization on surface water quality:A case study in the Liangjiang new area,China.Environmental Monitoring&Assessment,2017,189(4):174.
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[22]Srinivasan V,Seto K C,Emerson R,et al.The impact of urbanization on water vulnerability:A coupled human-environment system approach for Chennai,India.Global Environmental Change,2013,23(1):229-239.
[23]Fang Chuanglin,Zhou Chenghu,GU Chaolin,et al.A proposal for the theoretical analysis of the interactive coupled effects between urbanization and the eco-environment in mega-urban agglomerations.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2017,27(12):1431-1449.
[24]Qin Huapeng,Su Qiong,Khu S T.An integrated model for water management in a rapidly urbanizing catchment.Environmental Modelling&Software,2011,26(12):1502-1514.
[25]Mirchi A.Synthesis of system dynamics tools for holistic conceptualization of water resources problems.Water Resources Management,2012,26(9):2421-2442.
[26]Zomorodian M,Lai S H,Homayounfar M,et al.Development and application of coupled system dynamics and game theory:A dynamic water conflict resolution method.Plos One,2017,12(12):e188489.
[27]Abadi L S K,Shamsai A,Goharnejad H.An analysis of the sustainability of basin water resources using Vensim model.Ksce Journal of Civil Engineering,2014,19(6):1-9.
[28]Zhang Z,Lu W X,Zhao Y,et al.Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process.Ecological Modelling,2014,275:9-21.
[29]Zeng Weihua,Wu Bo,Chai Ying.Dynamic simulation of urban water metabolism under water environmental carrying capacity restrictions.Frontiers of Environmental Science&Engineering,2016,10(1):114-128.
[30]姚建文,徐子恺,王建生.21世纪中叶中国需水展望.水科学进展,1999,10(2):190-194.[Yao Jianwen,Xu Zikai,Wang Jiansheng.Perspective of the water demand of China by the mid 21th century.Advances in Water Science,1999,10(2):190-194.]
[31]刘昌明,陈志恺.中国水资源现状评价和供需发展趋势分析.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2001.[Liu Changming,Chen Zhikai.China's Water Resources Assessment and Supply and Demand Development Trend Analysis.Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2001.]
[32]高珺,赵娜,高齐圣.中国水资源供需模型及预测.统计与决策,2014,(18):85-87.[Gao Jun,Zhao Na,Gao Qisheng.Chinese water supply and demand model and forecast.Statistics and Decision,2014,(18):85-87.]
[33]Sun Yuhuan,Liu Ningning,Shang Jixia,et al.Sustainable utilization of water resources in China:A system dynamics model.Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,142(SI2):613-625.
[34]Winz I,Brierley G,Trowsdale S.The use of system dynamics simulation in water resources management.Water Resources Management,2009,23(7):1301-1323.
[35]Chen Zhihe,Wei Shuai.Application of system dynamics to water security research.Water Resources Management,2014,28(2):287-300.
[36]Peck S.Group model building:Facilitating team learning using system dynamics.Journal of Organizational Behavior,1998,49(7):766-767.
[37]Ahmad S,Prashar D.Evaluating municipalwater conservation policies using a dynamic simulation model.Water Resources Management,2010,24(13):3371-3395.
[38]Wei Tong,Lou Inchio,Yang Zhifeng,et al.A system dynamics urban water management model for Macau,China.Journal of Environmental Sciences,2016,50(12):117-126.
[39]Gu Chaolin,Guan Weihua,Liu Helin.Chinese urbanization 2050:SD modeling and process simulation.Science China Earth Sciences,2017,60(6):1-16.
[2]Arfanuzzaman M,Rahman A A.Sustainable water demand management in the face of rapid urbanization and ground water depletion for social-ecological resilience building.Global Ecology&Conservation,2017,10:9-22.
[3]Mcgrane S J.Impacts of urbanisation on hydrological and water quality dynamics,and urban water management:A review.International Association of Scientific Hydrology Bulletin,2015,61(13):2295-2311.
[4]Cheng Jingyao,Zhou Kan,Chen Dong,et al.Evaluation and analysis of provincial differences in resources and environment carrying capacity in China.Chinese Geographical Science,2016,26(4):539-549.
[5]Bigelow D P,Plantinga A J,Lewis D J,et al.How does urbanization affect water withdrawals?Insights from an econometric-based landscape simulation.Land Economics,2017,93(3):413-436.
[6]Capps K A,Bentsen C N,Ramírez A.Poverty,urbanization,and environmental degradation:Urban streams in the developing world.Freshwater Science,2016,35(1):429-435.
[7]Haase D.Effects of urbanisation on the water balance:A long-term trajectory.Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2009,29(4):211-219.
[8]Gao Xiang,Yu Tengfei.The temporal-spatial variation of water resources constraint on urbanization in the northwestern China:Examples from the Gansu section of west Longhai-Lanxin economic zone.Environmental Earth Sciences,2014,71(9):4029-4037.
[9]Bao Chao,Fang Chuanglin.Integrated assessment model of water resources constraint intensity on urbanization in arid area.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2009,19(3):273-286.
[10]Barron O V,Barr A D,Donn M J.Effect of urbanisation on the water balance of a catchment with shallow groundwater.Journal of Hydrology,2013,485(8):162-176.
[11]张士锋,孟秀敬,廖强.北京市水资源与水量平衡研究.地理研究,2012,31(11):1991-1997.[Zhang Shifeng,Meng Xiujing,Liao Qiang.Research on water resources and water balance in Beijing.Geographical Research,2012,31(11):1991-1997.]
[12]Gong Li,Jin Chunling.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for carrying capacity of regional water resources.Water Resources Management,2009,23(12):2505-2513.
[13]叶龙浩,周丰,郭怀成,等.基于水环境承载力的沁河流域系统优化调控.地理研究,2013,32(6):1007-1016.[Ye Longhao,Zhou Feng,Guo Huaicheng,et al.Optimal regulation of Qinghe River watershed system based on water carrying capacity.Geographical Research,2013,32(6):1007-1016.]
[14]Jansen A,Schulz C E.Water demand and the urban poor:A study of the factors influencing water consumption among households in Cape Town,South Africa.South African Journal of Economics,2010,74(3):593-609.
[15]Panagopoulos G P.Assessing the impacts of socio-economic and hydrological factors on urban water demand:A multivariate statistical approach.Journal of Hydrology,2014,518(2):42-48.
[16]Shi Tiange,Zhang Xiaolei,Du Hongru,et al.Urban water resource utilization efficiency in China.Chinese Geographical Science,2015,(6):1-14.
[17]Ma Hailiang,Shi Chenling,Chou Nanting.China's water utilization efficiency:An analysis with environmental considerations.Sustainability,2016,8(6):516.
[18]Shen Yanjun,Oki T,Kanae S,et al.Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios:An integrated assessment.International Association of Scientific Hydrology Bulletin,2014,59(10):1775-1793.
[19]Bao Chao,Chen Xiaojie.Spatial econometric analysis on influencing factors of water consumption efficiency in urbanizing China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2017,27(12):1450-1462.
[20]Luo Kun,Hu Xuebin,Qiang He,et al.Using multivariate techniques to assess the effects of urbanization on surface water quality:A case study in the Liangjiang new area,China.Environmental Monitoring&Assessment,2017,189(4):174.
[21]Borges R C,Santos F V D,Caldas V G,et al.Use of geographic information system(GIS)in the characterization of the Cunha Canal,Rio de Janeiro,Brazil:Effects of the urbanization on water quality.Environmental Earth Sciences,2015,73(3):1345-1356.
[22]Srinivasan V,Seto K C,Emerson R,et al.The impact of urbanization on water vulnerability:A coupled human-environment system approach for Chennai,India.Global Environmental Change,2013,23(1):229-239.
[23]Fang Chuanglin,Zhou Chenghu,GU Chaolin,et al.A proposal for the theoretical analysis of the interactive coupled effects between urbanization and the eco-environment in mega-urban agglomerations.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2017,27(12):1431-1449.
[24]Qin Huapeng,Su Qiong,Khu S T.An integrated model for water management in a rapidly urbanizing catchment.Environmental Modelling&Software,2011,26(12):1502-1514.
[25]Mirchi A.Synthesis of system dynamics tools for holistic conceptualization of water resources problems.Water Resources Management,2012,26(9):2421-2442.
[26]Zomorodian M,Lai S H,Homayounfar M,et al.Development and application of coupled system dynamics and game theory:A dynamic water conflict resolution method.Plos One,2017,12(12):e188489.
[27]Abadi L S K,Shamsai A,Goharnejad H.An analysis of the sustainability of basin water resources using Vensim model.Ksce Journal of Civil Engineering,2014,19(6):1-9.
[28]Zhang Z,Lu W X,Zhao Y,et al.Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process.Ecological Modelling,2014,275:9-21.
[29]Zeng Weihua,Wu Bo,Chai Ying.Dynamic simulation of urban water metabolism under water environmental carrying capacity restrictions.Frontiers of Environmental Science&Engineering,2016,10(1):114-128.
[30]姚建文,徐子恺,王建生.21世纪中叶中国需水展望.水科学进展,1999,10(2):190-194.[Yao Jianwen,Xu Zikai,Wang Jiansheng.Perspective of the water demand of China by the mid 21th century.Advances in Water Science,1999,10(2):190-194.]
[31]刘昌明,陈志恺.中国水资源现状评价和供需发展趋势分析.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2001.[Liu Changming,Chen Zhikai.China's Water Resources Assessment and Supply and Demand Development Trend Analysis.Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2001.]
[32]高珺,赵娜,高齐圣.中国水资源供需模型及预测.统计与决策,2014,(18):85-87.[Gao Jun,Zhao Na,Gao Qisheng.Chinese water supply and demand model and forecast.Statistics and Decision,2014,(18):85-87.]
[33]Sun Yuhuan,Liu Ningning,Shang Jixia,et al.Sustainable utilization of water resources in China:A system dynamics model.Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,142(SI2):613-625.
[34]Winz I,Brierley G,Trowsdale S.The use of system dynamics simulation in water resources management.Water Resources Management,2009,23(7):1301-1323.
[35]Chen Zhihe,Wei Shuai.Application of system dynamics to water security research.Water Resources Management,2014,28(2):287-300.
[36]Peck S.Group model building:Facilitating team learning using system dynamics.Journal of Organizational Behavior,1998,49(7):766-767.
[37]Ahmad S,Prashar D.Evaluating municipalwater conservation policies using a dynamic simulation model.Water Resources Management,2010,24(13):3371-3395.
[38]Wei Tong,Lou Inchio,Yang Zhifeng,et al.A system dynamics urban water management model for Macau,China.Journal of Environmental Sciences,2016,50(12):117-126.
[39]Gu Chaolin,Guan Weihua,Liu Helin.Chinese urbanization 2050:SD modeling and process simulation.Science China Earth Sciences,2017,60(6):1-16.