基于多源数据的村镇山洪风险分析和评价研究
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摘要
海南岛中部地区山地高耸,地形梯级变化明显,加之夏秋季节台风活动频发带来大量暴雨,极易引起山洪暴发。以海南省琼中县为研究区,通过GIS方法分析各类典型因子的山洪致灾机理,在山洪灾害风险性、易损性评估架构下,采用层次分析法(AHP)获得各指标权重,建立山洪灾害风险评估模型,得到琼中县山洪灾害风险分区。结合山洪灾害调查成果,较充分考虑了导致山洪爆发的因素和行洪过程中的影响因素,通过各因素与历史灾害的相关性建立指标体系,使得评估结果更加合理。结果表明琼中县定安河、乘坡河源头地区山洪灾害风险较高,符合当地实际情况。研究方法具有一定的实用性和推广型,其成果对村镇小流域的山洪灾害防治规划和水利防汛工作具有参考价值。
Hainan island terrain changes significantly, the central region is mountainous and the surrounding area is plain. July to September of each year is frequent typhoon activity time, a lot of rain can easily cause flash floods. Taking Qiongzhong County of Hainan provinceas researches area,on the basis of the analysis of torrent disaster development factors, this paper selects such nine indicators as annual maximum 10 minute rainstorms,annual maximum one hour rainstorm, annual maximum 6 hour rainstorm, annual maximum 24 hour rainstorm,surface elevation, topographic wetness index, soil type, residential density and economic density to construct the index system of torrent disaster development environment partition,uses analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each indicator,uses comprehensive index method to construct comprehensive evaluation model of torrent disaster development environment. This research method has certain practicability and promotion type, and the research results have reference value for Mountain torrent disaster prevention plan of village-region.
Hainan island terrain changes significantly, the central region is mountainous and the surrounding area is plain. July to September of each year is frequent typhoon activity time, a lot of rain can easily cause flash floods. Taking Qiongzhong County of Hainan provinceas researches area,on the basis of the analysis of torrent disaster development factors, this paper selects such nine indicators as annual maximum 10 minute rainstorms,annual maximum one hour rainstorm, annual maximum 6 hour rainstorm, annual maximum 24 hour rainstorm,surface elevation, topographic wetness index, soil type, residential density and economic density to construct the index system of torrent disaster development environment partition,uses analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each indicator,uses comprehensive index method to construct comprehensive evaluation model of torrent disaster development environment. This research method has certain practicability and promotion type, and the research results have reference value for Mountain torrent disaster prevention plan of village-region.
引文
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[7]史玉虎,张洪江,潘嘉,等.长江三峡花岗岩区降雨特性对管流的影响[J].东北林业大学学报,2004,32(3):33-36.
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[12]任希岩,张雪松,郝芳华,等.分辨率对产流产沙模拟影响研究[J].水土保持研究,2004,11(1):1-4.
[13]田智慧,晋磊.分辨率对小流域径流模拟的影响[J].安徽师范大学学报(自然科学版),2013(5):483-488.
[14]张向炎,史学正,于东升,等.前期土壤含水量对红壤坡面产流产沙特性的影响[J].水科学进展,2010,21(1):23-29.
[15]龚杰,罗麟,周诲燕.前期土壤含水量对坡面产流产沙起始时间的影响[J].人民长江,2011,42(9):102-104.
[16]胡国锋,王济,蔡雄飞,等.初始含水量对土壤侵烛的影响研究进展[J].贵州农业科学,2013,41(5):100-103.
[17]宋轩,王本芬,杜丽平,等.鲁山县土地利用变化对地表径流的影响[J].河南农业科学,2008,37(4):57-60.
[18]HUNDECHA Y,BARDOSSY A.Modeling of the Effect of Land Use Changes on the Runoff Generation of a River Basin Through Parameter Regionalization of a Watershed Model[J].Journal of Hydrology,2004,292(1):281-295.
[19]刘珍环,曽祥坤.深圳市不透水表面扩展对径流量的影响[J].水资源保护,2013,29(3):44-50.
[20]袁飞.考虑植被影响的水文过程模拟研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[21]NAIK P K,JAY D A.Estimation of Columbia River virgin flow:1879–1928[J].Hydrological Processes,2005,19(9):1807-1824.
[22]王盛萍,张志强,孙阁,等.黄土高原流域土地利用变化水文动态响应——以甘肃天水吕二沟流域为例[J].北京林业大学学报,2006,28(1):48-54.
[23]王友生.北京山区典型小流域土地利用森林覆被变化的水文生态响应研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2012.
[24]ALCáNTARA A I.Geomorphology,natural hazards,vulnerability and prevention of natural disasters in developing countries[J].Geomorphology,2002,47(2):107-124.
[25]MASKREY A.Disaster mitigation:a community based approach.[M].Oxford England Oxfam,1989.
[26]DEYLE R E,FRENCH S P,OLSHANSKY R B,et al.Hazard assessment:the factual basis for planning and mitigation[C]//Cooperating with Nature:Confronting Natural Hazards with Land Use Planning for Sustainable Communities,1998:119-166.
[27]马宗晋,李阂锋.自然灾害评估、灾度和对策[C]//中国减轻自然灾害研究组.全国减轻自然灾害研究讨论会论文集,1990.
[28]史培军.再论灾害研究的理论和实践[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(4):6-15.
[29]罗祖德,徐冲.城市自然灾害的社会因素及防治对策研究[J].自然灾害报,1992(1):36-47.
[30]金菊良,魏一鸣,杨晓华.基于遗传算法的神经网络及其在洪水灾害承灾体易损性建模中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(2):53-60.
[31]樊运晓,罗云,陈庆寿.承灾体脆弱性评价指标中的量化方法探讨[J].灾害学,2000,15(2):78-81.
[32]薛强.对地质灾害易发性危险性易损性和风险性的探讨[J].工程地质学报,2007(15):124-128.
[33]石莉莉,乔建平.基于GIS和贡献权重迭加方法的区域滑坡灾害易损性评价[J].灾害学,2009,24(3):46-50.
[34]姜云.小城镇灾害易损性熵权与可变模糊集评估方法研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2009,25(6):88-91.
[35]王威,田杰,苏经宇,等.基于贝叶斯随机评价方法的小城镇灾害易损性分析[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2010,30(5):524-527.
[36]邹敏.基于GIS技术的黄水河流域山洪灾害风险区划研究[D].济南:山东师范大学,2007.
[37]孙莉英,葛浩,庞占龙,等.长江流域不同类型山洪灾害受自然因素影响分析[J].人民长江,2016,47(14):1-6.
[2]叶佰生,赖祖铭.气候变化对天山伊犁河上游河川径流的影响[J].冰川冻土,1996,18(1):29-36.
[3]郭庆荣,张秉刚.丘陵赤红壤降雨入渗产流模型及其变化特征[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(1):62-65.
[4]NUNES J P,LIMA J L M P D,SINGH V P,et al.Numerical modeling of surface runoff and erosion due to moving rainstorms at the drainage basin scale[J].Journal of Hydrology,2006,330(3–4):709-720.
[5]李发东.太行山小流域降雨-径流关系及其过程的研究[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(3):120-122.
[6]曾立雄,肖文发,黄志霖,等.三峡库区不同退耕还林模式水土流失特征及其影响因子[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(1):146-152.
[7]史玉虎,张洪江,潘嘉,等.长江三峡花岗岩区降雨特性对管流的影响[J].东北林业大学学报,2004,32(3):33-36.
[8]STEPHENSON D.Kinematic study of effects of strom dynamics on runoff hydrographs[J].Water,1984(10):189-196.
[9]陈正发,郭宏忠,史东梅,等.地形因子对紫色土坡耕地土壤侵他作用的试验研究[J].水土保持学报,2010,24(5):83-87.
[10]康静雯,陈晓燕,赵宇,等.人工模拟降雨条件下紫色土坡地产流产沙特征研究[J].西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2014(3):1-5.
[11]吴险峰,刘昌明,王中根.栅格的水平分辨率对流域特征的影响分析[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(2):148-154.
[12]任希岩,张雪松,郝芳华,等.分辨率对产流产沙模拟影响研究[J].水土保持研究,2004,11(1):1-4.
[13]田智慧,晋磊.分辨率对小流域径流模拟的影响[J].安徽师范大学学报(自然科学版),2013(5):483-488.
[14]张向炎,史学正,于东升,等.前期土壤含水量对红壤坡面产流产沙特性的影响[J].水科学进展,2010,21(1):23-29.
[15]龚杰,罗麟,周诲燕.前期土壤含水量对坡面产流产沙起始时间的影响[J].人民长江,2011,42(9):102-104.
[16]胡国锋,王济,蔡雄飞,等.初始含水量对土壤侵烛的影响研究进展[J].贵州农业科学,2013,41(5):100-103.
[17]宋轩,王本芬,杜丽平,等.鲁山县土地利用变化对地表径流的影响[J].河南农业科学,2008,37(4):57-60.
[18]HUNDECHA Y,BARDOSSY A.Modeling of the Effect of Land Use Changes on the Runoff Generation of a River Basin Through Parameter Regionalization of a Watershed Model[J].Journal of Hydrology,2004,292(1):281-295.
[19]刘珍环,曽祥坤.深圳市不透水表面扩展对径流量的影响[J].水资源保护,2013,29(3):44-50.
[20]袁飞.考虑植被影响的水文过程模拟研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[21]NAIK P K,JAY D A.Estimation of Columbia River virgin flow:1879–1928[J].Hydrological Processes,2005,19(9):1807-1824.
[22]王盛萍,张志强,孙阁,等.黄土高原流域土地利用变化水文动态响应——以甘肃天水吕二沟流域为例[J].北京林业大学学报,2006,28(1):48-54.
[23]王友生.北京山区典型小流域土地利用森林覆被变化的水文生态响应研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2012.
[24]ALCáNTARA A I.Geomorphology,natural hazards,vulnerability and prevention of natural disasters in developing countries[J].Geomorphology,2002,47(2):107-124.
[25]MASKREY A.Disaster mitigation:a community based approach.[M].Oxford England Oxfam,1989.
[26]DEYLE R E,FRENCH S P,OLSHANSKY R B,et al.Hazard assessment:the factual basis for planning and mitigation[C]//Cooperating with Nature:Confronting Natural Hazards with Land Use Planning for Sustainable Communities,1998:119-166.
[27]马宗晋,李阂锋.自然灾害评估、灾度和对策[C]//中国减轻自然灾害研究组.全国减轻自然灾害研究讨论会论文集,1990.
[28]史培军.再论灾害研究的理论和实践[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(4):6-15.
[29]罗祖德,徐冲.城市自然灾害的社会因素及防治对策研究[J].自然灾害报,1992(1):36-47.
[30]金菊良,魏一鸣,杨晓华.基于遗传算法的神经网络及其在洪水灾害承灾体易损性建模中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(2):53-60.
[31]樊运晓,罗云,陈庆寿.承灾体脆弱性评价指标中的量化方法探讨[J].灾害学,2000,15(2):78-81.
[32]薛强.对地质灾害易发性危险性易损性和风险性的探讨[J].工程地质学报,2007(15):124-128.
[33]石莉莉,乔建平.基于GIS和贡献权重迭加方法的区域滑坡灾害易损性评价[J].灾害学,2009,24(3):46-50.
[34]姜云.小城镇灾害易损性熵权与可变模糊集评估方法研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2009,25(6):88-91.
[35]王威,田杰,苏经宇,等.基于贝叶斯随机评价方法的小城镇灾害易损性分析[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2010,30(5):524-527.
[36]邹敏.基于GIS技术的黄水河流域山洪灾害风险区划研究[D].济南:山东师范大学,2007.
[37]孙莉英,葛浩,庞占龙,等.长江流域不同类型山洪灾害受自然因素影响分析[J].人民长江,2016,47(14):1-6.