最严格水资源管理制度下的水量平衡分析——南水北调(中线)商洛水源地
|
摘要
[目的]通过研究南水北调(中线)商洛水源地在最严格水资源管理制度下的水量平衡问题,提出要提高南水北调(中线)商洛水源地水资源开发利用效率,促进经济社会发展与水资源水环境承载能力相协调。[方法]利用文献调查法与比较研究法,通过对南水北调(中线)商洛水源地水量平衡的分析,着重论述在最严格水资源管理制度总用水量控制目标下商洛水源地各年应供给南水北调(中线)的水量与商洛水源地用水量在满足自身发展基础上各年可供往南水北调水量之间的关系。[结果]南水北调(中线)商洛水源地预测用水需求情况下可供给南水北调中线的水量均高于用水总量控制目标下需供给南水北调中线的水量,即商洛市在满足自身经济社会发展的同时能够完成供水任务。[结论]陕政办发[2013] 77号文件中规定的陕西省各县区用水总量控制目标是科学、合理的,南水北调(中线)商洛水源地在满足供水任务与自身经济社会发展之间可以寻求到新的平衡。
To improve the water resources development and the utilization efficiency of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project for Shangluo water source area,this study explored the problem of the water balance under the most stringent water resources management system which could promote the economic and social development and water resources development. The literature survey method and the comparative research method was used to analyze the water balance of the Shangluo water source area of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. And the relation between the total water supplementary capability under the strictest water resources management system and the total water consumption control target of Shangluo water source area was primarily studied. The water quantity that can be supplied to the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project under the forecast of water demand of Shangluo water source in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. It is higher than the water quantity required to be supplied to the middle route of the South-toNorth Water Diversion Project under the total water control target. That is,Shangluo city can complete the water supplying task while meeting its economic and social developing. The goal of total water consumption control of all counties and districts in Shaanxi province as stipulated in the Document No. 77 of Shaanxi Administration Office[2013]is scientific and reasonable. The Shangluo water source area of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project can find a new balance between meeting the task of water supply and its own economic and social development.
To improve the water resources development and the utilization efficiency of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project for Shangluo water source area,this study explored the problem of the water balance under the most stringent water resources management system which could promote the economic and social development and water resources development. The literature survey method and the comparative research method was used to analyze the water balance of the Shangluo water source area of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. And the relation between the total water supplementary capability under the strictest water resources management system and the total water consumption control target of Shangluo water source area was primarily studied. The water quantity that can be supplied to the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project under the forecast of water demand of Shangluo water source in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. It is higher than the water quantity required to be supplied to the middle route of the South-toNorth Water Diversion Project under the total water control target. That is,Shangluo city can complete the water supplying task while meeting its economic and social developing. The goal of total water consumption control of all counties and districts in Shaanxi province as stipulated in the Document No. 77 of Shaanxi Administration Office[2013]is scientific and reasonable. The Shangluo water source area of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project can find a new balance between meeting the task of water supply and its own economic and social development.
引文
[1]陈艳萍,吴凤平,周晔.基于二维判别的初始水权配置方案的和谐性诊断.干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(12):125-131.
[2]张永军,曾维华,路娴,等.三维图示模型在流域水资源地域冲突分析中的应用.水利学报,2005,36(8):966-971.
[3]肖洪浪,赵文智,冯起,等.中国内陆河流域尺度的水资源利用率提高研究---黑河流域水生态经济管理试验示范.中国沙漠,2004,24(4):381-384.
[4]宋宗水.我国水资源开发利用若干问题.中国农业资源与区划,2003,24(4):36-38.
[5]孙福宝,杨大文,刘志雨,等.基于Budyko假设的黄河流域水热耦合平衡规律研究.水利学报,2007,38(4):409-416.
[6]张士锋,贾绍凤.海河流域水量平衡与水资源安全问题研究.自然资源学报,2003,18(6):684-691.
[7]陈军锋,陈秀万.SWAT模型的水量平衡及其在梭磨河流域的应用.北京大学学报,2004,40(2):265-270.
[8]莫兴国,刘苏峡,林忠辉,等.无定河流域水量平衡变化的模拟.地理学报,2004,59(3):341-348.
[9]董艳萍,袁晶瑄.流域水文模型的回顾与展望.水力发电,2008,34(3):20-23.
[10]芮孝芳,蒋成煜,张金存.流域水文模型的发展.水文,2006,26(3):22-26.
[11]卫小蓉.黄河内蒙段干流流量演进模拟与水量平衡分析.内蒙古农业大学,2015.
[12]杨林娟.甘肃石羊河流域民勤绿洲水资源可持续利用对策.中国农业资源与区划,2007,28(1):30-33.
[13]王希,王秀茹,贾芳芳,等.T-M水量平衡模型在流域产流计算中的应用.水土保持通报,2015,35(1):193-198+362.
[14]张士锋,贾绍凤.海河流域水量平衡与水资源安全问题研究.自然资源学报,2003,10(6):684-691.
[15]张腾,张震,徐艳.基于SD模型的海淀区水资源供需平衡模拟与仿真研究.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(2):29-36.
[16]Houghton H A,CARR.assessent criteria for simple conceptual daily rainfall-runoff models.1996.
[17]Wang Wen.Stochasticity,nonlinearity and forecasting of streamflow process.PHD dissertation of TUDELFT,Netherlands,2006.
[18]郭生练,王国庆.半干旱地区月水量平衡模型.人民黄河,1994,17(12):13-16.
[19]Nash J E,Sutcliffe J.River flow forecasting trough conceptual models,Part1,A discussion of principles.Journal of Hydrology,1970(10):282-290.
[20]井涌.水量平衡原理在分析计算流域耗水量中的应用.西北水资源与水工程,2003,14(2):30-32.
[21]常淑玲,尤学一.天津市需水量预测研究.干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(2):14-19.
[22]陆宁.工程经济学.北京:化学工业出版社,2008.80-82.
[23]王力宾.数列修匀的加权算术平均数──中位数混合移动平均法.昆明理工大学学报,2001,26(5):50-55.
[24]郭棠.移动平均数法在医院管理统计预测中的应用.中国卫生统计,1993,10(4):33-34.
[2]张永军,曾维华,路娴,等.三维图示模型在流域水资源地域冲突分析中的应用.水利学报,2005,36(8):966-971.
[3]肖洪浪,赵文智,冯起,等.中国内陆河流域尺度的水资源利用率提高研究---黑河流域水生态经济管理试验示范.中国沙漠,2004,24(4):381-384.
[4]宋宗水.我国水资源开发利用若干问题.中国农业资源与区划,2003,24(4):36-38.
[5]孙福宝,杨大文,刘志雨,等.基于Budyko假设的黄河流域水热耦合平衡规律研究.水利学报,2007,38(4):409-416.
[6]张士锋,贾绍凤.海河流域水量平衡与水资源安全问题研究.自然资源学报,2003,18(6):684-691.
[7]陈军锋,陈秀万.SWAT模型的水量平衡及其在梭磨河流域的应用.北京大学学报,2004,40(2):265-270.
[8]莫兴国,刘苏峡,林忠辉,等.无定河流域水量平衡变化的模拟.地理学报,2004,59(3):341-348.
[9]董艳萍,袁晶瑄.流域水文模型的回顾与展望.水力发电,2008,34(3):20-23.
[10]芮孝芳,蒋成煜,张金存.流域水文模型的发展.水文,2006,26(3):22-26.
[11]卫小蓉.黄河内蒙段干流流量演进模拟与水量平衡分析.内蒙古农业大学,2015.
[12]杨林娟.甘肃石羊河流域民勤绿洲水资源可持续利用对策.中国农业资源与区划,2007,28(1):30-33.
[13]王希,王秀茹,贾芳芳,等.T-M水量平衡模型在流域产流计算中的应用.水土保持通报,2015,35(1):193-198+362.
[14]张士锋,贾绍凤.海河流域水量平衡与水资源安全问题研究.自然资源学报,2003,10(6):684-691.
[15]张腾,张震,徐艳.基于SD模型的海淀区水资源供需平衡模拟与仿真研究.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(2):29-36.
[16]Houghton H A,CARR.assessent criteria for simple conceptual daily rainfall-runoff models.1996.
[17]Wang Wen.Stochasticity,nonlinearity and forecasting of streamflow process.PHD dissertation of TUDELFT,Netherlands,2006.
[18]郭生练,王国庆.半干旱地区月水量平衡模型.人民黄河,1994,17(12):13-16.
[19]Nash J E,Sutcliffe J.River flow forecasting trough conceptual models,Part1,A discussion of principles.Journal of Hydrology,1970(10):282-290.
[20]井涌.水量平衡原理在分析计算流域耗水量中的应用.西北水资源与水工程,2003,14(2):30-32.
[21]常淑玲,尤学一.天津市需水量预测研究.干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(2):14-19.
[22]陆宁.工程经济学.北京:化学工业出版社,2008.80-82.
[23]王力宾.数列修匀的加权算术平均数──中位数混合移动平均法.昆明理工大学学报,2001,26(5):50-55.
[24]郭棠.移动平均数法在医院管理统计预测中的应用.中国卫生统计,1993,10(4):33-34.