基于GeoDam-BREACH与Graham法的溃坝生命损失估算
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摘要
应用GeoDam-BREACH工具包模拟了超标准洪水状况下小井沟水库下游的溃坝洪水演进过程,得到水库溃坝下游淹没范围与淹没区水深分布,然后采用Graham法对溃坝导致的生命损失风险进行分析。分析结果表明,小井沟水库发生漫顶破坏时,溃坝洪水对下游产生严重影响,下游村镇有受淹风险;下游溃坝淹没区域的风险人口死亡率较高,并且随着警报时间的减小而增大,从而得出警报时间和风险人口对溃坝洪水严重性的理解程度是生命损失的重要影响因素、应当加强水库大坝的日常巡查工作和预警系统的结论。研究成果为小井沟水库的防洪调度和应急预案编制提供了有效支持,对于同类水库的防洪和安全管理亦具有参考价值。
The GeoDam-BREACH toolsets are used to simulate the process of the dam-break flood routing downstream of the Xiaojinggou reservoir under the conditions of super-standard flood. The inundated area and water depth distribution of the inundated area downstream of the dam breach are obtained. Then the analysis of the life loss risk caused by the dam breach is carried out by Graham method in this study. The analysis results show that the reservoir dam-break flood will give serious impacts on the downstream area, where the villages and towns may be at risk of flooding; and the mortality rate of population at risk in the downstream dam-break flooding area is higher and increases with the decrease of warning time. Therefore, it is concluded that the warning time and understanding of the dam-break flood severity are important factors affecting the loss of life. And the daily inspection work and early warning system of the reservoir dam should be strengthened. The research results provide effective technical support for flood control dispatch and emergency plans compilation of the Xiaojinggou reservoir, and have certain reference values for flood control and dam safety management of similar reservoirs.
The GeoDam-BREACH toolsets are used to simulate the process of the dam-break flood routing downstream of the Xiaojinggou reservoir under the conditions of super-standard flood. The inundated area and water depth distribution of the inundated area downstream of the dam breach are obtained. Then the analysis of the life loss risk caused by the dam breach is carried out by Graham method in this study. The analysis results show that the reservoir dam-break flood will give serious impacts on the downstream area, where the villages and towns may be at risk of flooding; and the mortality rate of population at risk in the downstream dam-break flooding area is higher and increases with the decrease of warning time. Therefore, it is concluded that the warning time and understanding of the dam-break flood severity are important factors affecting the loss of life. And the daily inspection work and early warning system of the reservoir dam should be strengthened. The research results provide effective technical support for flood control dispatch and emergency plans compilation of the Xiaojinggou reservoir, and have certain reference values for flood control and dam safety management of similar reservoirs.
引文
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[7] 周克发,李雷,盛金保.我国溃坝生命损失评价模型初步研究[J].安全与环境学报,2007,7(3):145- 149.(ZHOU Kefa,LI Lei,SHENG Jinbao.Evaluation model of loss of life due to dam breach in China[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2007,7(3):145- 149.(in Chinese))
[8] 彭雪辉,李雷,王仁钟.大坝风险分析及其在沙河集水库大坝的应用[J].水利水运工程学报,2004(4):21- 25.(PENG Xuehui,LI Lei,WANG Renzhong.Dam risk analysis and its application to Shaheji Dam[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2004(4):21- 25.(in Chinese))
[9] 周克发,李雷,孙晓明.杭州青山水库溃坝生命损失初步估算[J].大坝与安全,2008(1):9- 14.(ZHOU Kefa,LI Lei,SUN Xiaoming.Estimation of loss of life due to dam breach for Hangzhou Qingshan reservoir[J].Dam and Safety,2008(1):9- 14.(in Chinese))
[10] 傅志敏,袁大钊,杨伟,等.自贡市小井沟水利工程2017年度防洪抢险应急预案[R].南京:河海大学,2017.(FU Zhimin,YUAN Dazhao,YANG Wei,et al.Emergency plan for flood control and emergency work in Xiaojingou hydraulic engineering in Zigong City in 2017[R].Nanjing:Hohai University,2017.(in Chinese))
[11] WETMORE J N,FREAD D L.NWS simplified dam-break flood forecasting model[R].Maryland:National Weather Service,1981:1-46.
[12] 刘常铁,陈金君,张学东.简化溃坝洪水预报模型(SMPDBK)的应用讨论[J].黑龙江水利科技,1997(1):67- 69.(LIU Changtie,CHEN Jinjun,ZHANG Xuedong.Discussion on the application of simplified dam-break flood forecasting model[J].Heilongjiang Science and Technology of Water Conservancy,1997(1):67- 69.(in Chinese))
[13] GRAHAM W J.A procedure for estimating loss of life caused by dam failure [J].Sedimentation and River Hydraulics,1999,6(5):1- 43.
[14] GRAHAM W J.A simple procedure for estimating loss of life from dam failure[R].Helsinki:RES CDAM-LOL,2001:1-7.
[15] 宋敬衖,何鲜峰.我国溃坝生命风险分析方法探讨[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2008,36(5):328- 633.(SONG Jingxiang,HE Xianfeng.Discussion on analysis method for risk of life loss caused by dam failure in China[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2008,36(5):328- 633.(in Chinese))
[16] 董建良.基于数字高程模型DEM的溃坝生命损失风险分析[J].吉林水利,2014,35(3):13- 16.(DONG Jianliang.The risk analysis of dam failure caused loss of life based on digital elevation model(DEM)[J].Jilin Water Resources,2014,35(3):13- 16.(in Chinese))
[2] DEKAY M L,MCCLELLAND G H.Predicting loss of life in cases of dam failure and flash flood[J].Insurance Mathematics and Economics,2010,13(2):193- 205.
[3] 李雷,王仁钟,盛金保.溃坝后果严重程度评价模型研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006,6(1):1- 4.(LI Lei,WANG Renzhong,SHENG Jinbao.Study on evaluation models of severity degree of dam failure impact[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2006,6(1):1-4.(in Chinese))
[4] 孙玮玮,李雷.基于模糊数学理论的大坝风险后果综合评价[J].水利水运工程学报,2010(4):16- 20.(SUN Weiwei,LI Lei.Comprehensive hazard assessment model for consequences caused by dam failure based on fuzzy mathematics method[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2010(4):16- 20.(in Chinese))
[5] 李雷,彭雪辉,王昭升.水库大坝溃决模式和溃坝概率分析研究[R].南京:南京水利科学研究院,2004.(LI Lei,PENG Xuehui,WANG Zhaosheng.Study on failure models and probability analysis of reservoir dams[R].Nanjing:Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,2004.(in Chinese))
[6] 李雷,周克发.大坝溃决导致的生命损失估算方法研究现状[J].水利水电科技进展,2006,26(2):76- 80.(LI Lei,ZHOU Kefa.Methods for evaluation of life loss induced by dam failure[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2006,26(2):76- 80.(in Chinese))
[7] 周克发,李雷,盛金保.我国溃坝生命损失评价模型初步研究[J].安全与环境学报,2007,7(3):145- 149.(ZHOU Kefa,LI Lei,SHENG Jinbao.Evaluation model of loss of life due to dam breach in China[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2007,7(3):145- 149.(in Chinese))
[8] 彭雪辉,李雷,王仁钟.大坝风险分析及其在沙河集水库大坝的应用[J].水利水运工程学报,2004(4):21- 25.(PENG Xuehui,LI Lei,WANG Renzhong.Dam risk analysis and its application to Shaheji Dam[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2004(4):21- 25.(in Chinese))
[9] 周克发,李雷,孙晓明.杭州青山水库溃坝生命损失初步估算[J].大坝与安全,2008(1):9- 14.(ZHOU Kefa,LI Lei,SUN Xiaoming.Estimation of loss of life due to dam breach for Hangzhou Qingshan reservoir[J].Dam and Safety,2008(1):9- 14.(in Chinese))
[10] 傅志敏,袁大钊,杨伟,等.自贡市小井沟水利工程2017年度防洪抢险应急预案[R].南京:河海大学,2017.(FU Zhimin,YUAN Dazhao,YANG Wei,et al.Emergency plan for flood control and emergency work in Xiaojingou hydraulic engineering in Zigong City in 2017[R].Nanjing:Hohai University,2017.(in Chinese))
[11] WETMORE J N,FREAD D L.NWS simplified dam-break flood forecasting model[R].Maryland:National Weather Service,1981:1-46.
[12] 刘常铁,陈金君,张学东.简化溃坝洪水预报模型(SMPDBK)的应用讨论[J].黑龙江水利科技,1997(1):67- 69.(LIU Changtie,CHEN Jinjun,ZHANG Xuedong.Discussion on the application of simplified dam-break flood forecasting model[J].Heilongjiang Science and Technology of Water Conservancy,1997(1):67- 69.(in Chinese))
[13] GRAHAM W J.A procedure for estimating loss of life caused by dam failure [J].Sedimentation and River Hydraulics,1999,6(5):1- 43.
[14] GRAHAM W J.A simple procedure for estimating loss of life from dam failure[R].Helsinki:RES CDAM-LOL,2001:1-7.
[15] 宋敬衖,何鲜峰.我国溃坝生命风险分析方法探讨[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2008,36(5):328- 633.(SONG Jingxiang,HE Xianfeng.Discussion on analysis method for risk of life loss caused by dam failure in China[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2008,36(5):328- 633.(in Chinese))
[16] 董建良.基于数字高程模型DEM的溃坝生命损失风险分析[J].吉林水利,2014,35(3):13- 16.(DONG Jianliang.The risk analysis of dam failure caused loss of life based on digital elevation model(DEM)[J].Jilin Water Resources,2014,35(3):13- 16.(in Chinese))