基于最小二乘回归法的辽宁省水资源压力演变特征与趋势分析
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摘要
以辽宁省为例分析了水资源压力与社会经济发展多项指标项作用关系,并对1995年以来辽宁省水资源压力演变趋势与特征利用偏最小二乘归回法进行了预测和分析。研究表明:影响辽宁省水资源压力的主要因素为第三产业发展和节水水平;辽宁省水资源压力在2000-2015年期间整体呈先降低后上升的趋势,并且在未来20a仍可能保持上升的趋势; N形环境库尔兹涅曲线为辽宁省人均GDP与水资源压力之间的显著特征,由此进一步说明该区域水资源压力在经济发展到一定程度时可表现出下降趋势,但是依然存在再次上升的压力。
Taking Liaoning Province as an example,the relationship between water resources stress and various indexes of socio-economic development was analyzed in this paper,and the evolution trend and characteristics of water resources stress in Liaoning Province since 1995 were predicted and analyzed with the partial least squares regression method( PLSR). The results show that the main factors affecting the water resources stress of Liaoning Province are the development of tertiary industry and the level of water saving; the water resources stress of Liaoning Province is in the tendency of decreasing firstly and then increases on the whole during the period of 2000—2015,and may still keep rising in the next 20 years; the N-shaped environmental Kurznets curve is the remarkable characters between per capita GDP and Liaoning Provincial water resources stress,this explains that the water resources stress of this region will be in a downward trend when the economy is developed to a certain extent,but there still exists pressure to rise again.
Taking Liaoning Province as an example,the relationship between water resources stress and various indexes of socio-economic development was analyzed in this paper,and the evolution trend and characteristics of water resources stress in Liaoning Province since 1995 were predicted and analyzed with the partial least squares regression method( PLSR). The results show that the main factors affecting the water resources stress of Liaoning Province are the development of tertiary industry and the level of water saving; the water resources stress of Liaoning Province is in the tendency of decreasing firstly and then increases on the whole during the period of 2000—2015,and may still keep rising in the next 20 years; the N-shaped environmental Kurznets curve is the remarkable characters between per capita GDP and Liaoning Provincial water resources stress,this explains that the water resources stress of this region will be in a downward trend when the economy is developed to a certain extent,but there still exists pressure to rise again.
引文
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[2]张义,张合平,李丰生.郭琳基于改进模型的广西水资源生态足迹动态分析[J].资源科学,2013(08):1601-1610.
[3]潘安娥,陈丽.湖北省水资源利用与经济协调发展脱钩分析——基于水足迹视角[J].资源科学,2014(02):328-333.
[4]孟丽红,叶志平,袁素芬,等.江西省2007-2011年水资源生态足迹和生态承载力动态特征[J].水土保持通报,2015(01):256-261.
[5]吴全志,苏喜军,龙林玲.基于生态足迹模型的贵州省水资源可持续利用分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报:自然科学版,2016(03):36-40.
[6]孙丹,王辉.从白石水库环境问题看综合治理大凌河的必要性[J].水土保持应用技术,2011(06):41-42.
[7]陈茜.辽阳县节水型社会建设规划目标与保障措施[J].水土保持应用技术,2016(02):16-18.