基于故障树分析法的地铁主变电所可靠性量化与评估
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摘要
地铁主变电所的安全可靠直接影响地铁供电系统的稳定运行,其可靠性量化与评估研究对衡量、评价当前供电系统的运行模式至关重要。针对地铁主变电所系统结构及运行方式,结合各层级关键设备基础数据,以故障树分析法构建主变所故障树模型,并分别计算此故障树的最小割集及最小径集集合;计算并评估划分关键设备对主所级系统的概率重要度,进而计算出顶层事件(主变电所退出)的失效概率。可为地铁供电系统整体可靠性的量化分析与评估奠定基础,并为运营维护决策提供依据。
Safety and reliability of the main subway substation directly affect the stable operation of power supply system,and the reliability quantification and assessment is very important in measuring and evaluating the operating conditions of the current power supply system. Aiming at the system structure and operation mode of the main subway substation,and combined with the basic data of key equipment at all levels,a fault tree model of the main substation is constructed based on FTA analysis,which is used to calculate the minimal cut set and the minimum path set of the fault tree respectively,and to assess the probabilistic importance of key equipment for the main substation system,and then is used to calculate the failure probability of the top event. This research will lay a foundation for the overall reliability quantification,system evaluation and maintenance decision of subway power supply system.
Safety and reliability of the main subway substation directly affect the stable operation of power supply system,and the reliability quantification and assessment is very important in measuring and evaluating the operating conditions of the current power supply system. Aiming at the system structure and operation mode of the main subway substation,and combined with the basic data of key equipment at all levels,a fault tree model of the main substation is constructed based on FTA analysis,which is used to calculate the minimal cut set and the minimum path set of the fault tree respectively,and to assess the probabilistic importance of key equipment for the main substation system,and then is used to calculate the failure probability of the top event. This research will lay a foundation for the overall reliability quantification,system evaluation and maintenance decision of subway power supply system.
引文
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[14]AKSU S,TURAN O.Reliability and availability of pod propulsion systems[J].Quality and Reliability Engineering International,2006,22(1):41.
[15]魏春荣,张建华,张锦鹏.事故树定性分析法及其在矿井安全评价中的应用[J].工业安全与环保,2009,35(9):39.
[2]王鹏,张贵新,朱小梅,等.基于故障模式与后果分析及故障树法的电子式电流互感器可靠性分析[J].电网技术,2006,30(23):15.
[3]DUTUIT Y,RAUZY A.Approximate estimation of system reliability via fault trees[J].Reliability engineering&system safety,2005,87(2):163.
[4]张菊,王若昆.基于FMECA和FTA的轨道电路系统安全性分析[J].高速铁路技术,2016,7(6):23.
[5]杨洋,谢开贵,孙鑫.基于FTA法的宁夏电网运行元件故障率分析[J].电力系统保护与控制,2009(18):134.
[6]王洪飞,施绮.基于故障树(FTA)方法的二次系统项目评估方法研究[J].华东电力,2014(12):2747.
[7]朱云飞,周凤舞,凌明胜.FTA在多输出通信网络系统中的应用[J].指挥信息系统与技术,2012,3(3):68.
[8]韩小涛,尹项根,张哲.故障树分析法在变电站通信系统可靠性分析中的应用[J].电网技术,2004,28(1):56.
[9]陆锦军,王执铨.基于故障树的校园网通信系统的可靠性分析[J].计算机应用与软件,2006,23(11):14.
[10]丁坚勇,张华志,吴新民,等.城轨供电系统接触网可靠性的故障树分析[J].城市轨道交通研究,2009(9):38.
[11]曾德容,何正友,于敏.地铁牵引变电所可靠性分析[J].铁道学报,2008,30(4):22.
[12]MRQUEZ F P G,PREZ J M P,MARUGN A P,et al.I-dentification of critical components of w ind turbines using FTAover the time[J].Renew able Energy,2016,87:869.
[13]MIRZA S,OMIDVARI M,LAVASANI S M R M.The application of Fuzzy logic to determine the failure probability in Fault Tree Risk Analysis[J].Safety promotion and injury prevention(Tehran),2014,2(2):113.
[14]AKSU S,TURAN O.Reliability and availability of pod propulsion systems[J].Quality and Reliability Engineering International,2006,22(1):41.
[15]魏春荣,张建华,张锦鹏.事故树定性分析法及其在矿井安全评价中的应用[J].工业安全与环保,2009,35(9):39.