国际自贸区(港)背景下海南瓜菜有效供给能力研究
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摘要
瓜菜是海南农民稳定收入来源,瓜菜产业健康发展是海南自贸区(港)建设的必然要求。海南瓜菜供给季节性明显,生产多集中在冬季,种植优势区逐渐形成,但产业劣势显著。国际自贸区(港)为海南瓜菜产业发展带来了政策及多功能区的机遇,也带来了产业转型及人口快速增长的挑战。依据海南省人口发展规划和灰色预测模型GM(1, 1)预测海南2017、 2020～2030年瓜菜消费量及生产量。可见,海南省瓜菜供给总量充足,自给率高,供给有效性主要问题是季节上的不均衡。从种植者市场竞争力、监测预警、功能区划分、品牌建立方面为国际自贸区(港)背景下海南瓜菜有效供给提出了保障建议。
The melons and vegetables is a source of stable income of farmers.It is an inevitable requirement for the construction of Hainan free trade zone(Island) to develop healthly melonsamel vegetables inndustry.The supply of melons and vegetables in Hainan is obviously seasonal.The melons and vegetables production is mostly concentrated in winter,and the dominant planting areas are gradually formed,but the disadvantages of melons and vegetables sector are obvious.The international trade zone(Island) brings not only the opportunity of the development of the melons and vegetables sector in Hainan,but also the challenge of industrial transformation and rapid population growth.Based on the Hainan population development plan and grey prediction model GM(1,1),the consumption and output of melons and vegetables in Hainan in 2017,2020 and 2030 were predicted.The results showed that the total supply of melons and vegetables in Hainan was adequate,that the self-sufficiency rate was high,and that the main problem of supply effectiveness was seasonally imbalanced.From the market competitiveness of the growers,monitoring and warning,functional area division and brand building,some suggestions for the effective supply of melons and vegetables in Hainan under the background of the international trade zone(Island) were put forward.
The melons and vegetables is a source of stable income of farmers.It is an inevitable requirement for the construction of Hainan free trade zone(Island) to develop healthly melonsamel vegetables inndustry.The supply of melons and vegetables in Hainan is obviously seasonal.The melons and vegetables production is mostly concentrated in winter,and the dominant planting areas are gradually formed,but the disadvantages of melons and vegetables sector are obvious.The international trade zone(Island) brings not only the opportunity of the development of the melons and vegetables sector in Hainan,but also the challenge of industrial transformation and rapid population growth.Based on the Hainan population development plan and grey prediction model GM(1,1),the consumption and output of melons and vegetables in Hainan in 2017,2020 and 2030 were predicted.The results showed that the total supply of melons and vegetables in Hainan was adequate,that the self-sufficiency rate was high,and that the main problem of supply effectiveness was seasonally imbalanced.From the market competitiveness of the growers,monitoring and warning,functional area division and brand building,some suggestions for the effective supply of melons and vegetables in Hainan under the background of the international trade zone(Island) were put forward.
引文
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[3]侯媛媛,贺滉.SWOT框架下海南冬季瓜菜供应机制研究[J].江苏农业科学,2015,43(11):618-621.
[4]张赛丽,李光辉,陈璐.海南瓜菜产销现状分析[J].热带农业科学,2014,34(3):76-82.
[5]陈奕霖.我省冬季瓜菜种植面积已达254万亩[EB/OL].[2018-02-06].https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1591640244108293477&wfr=spider&for=pc.
[6]张真和,肖日新,赵建阳,等.海南和广西秋冬季蔬菜生产现状及发展建议[J].中国蔬菜,2012,1(3):1-4.
[7]廖道龙,邓长智,武壮生,等.海南冬季瓜菜产业化发展现状及对策[J].江苏农业科学,2014,42(7):485-486.
[8]王萍,董定超.海南农产品流通现状分析及对策探讨[J].热带农业科学,2009,29(3):39-43.
[9]侯媛媛,刘恩平,李光辉,等.海南冬季瓜菜流通环节的利益分配分析[J].中国蔬菜,2016,1(12):5-9.
[10]胡勇,罗美玲.海南农产品出口面临的困难与对策分析[J].对外经贸实务,2010(11):49-51.
[11]梁伟红,罗微,刘燕群,等.海南冬季瓜菜产业风险及可持续发展对策研究[J].江苏农业科学,41(10):431-433.
[12]新华网.授权发布:中共中央国务院关于支持海南全面深化改革开放的指导意见[EB/OL].[2018-04-14].https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1597724230762837895&wfr=spider&for=pc.
[13]海南省人民政府关于印发海南省人口发展规划(2030年)的通知[EB/OL].[2018-06-06].http://www.hainan.gov.cn/hn/zwgk/zfwj/szfwj/201806/t20180611_2654726.html.
[14]徐静.我国生鲜农产品有效供给保障研究[D].镇江:江苏大学,2016.
[15]张磊,王娜,吴金超.中国蔬菜批发行业结构、行为及绩效研究---以山东寿光到北京的蔬菜流通为例[J].农业经济问题,2018(2):115-126.
[16]刘耘,陈绮君,李达.中国蔬菜出口贸易及国际竞争力分析[J].经济问题,2018(5):64-67;
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