旱魃袭麦:“丁戊奇荒”成因再探
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摘要
目前学界认为"丁戊奇荒"系旱灾,政治与社会层面的负面因素加剧了灾情。研究发现,"丁戊奇荒"主要是麦灾,是干旱来临麦作歉收导致的灾荒。"丁戊奇荒"期间政府官员的判断和基于其他证据的分析都能证明这一点。干旱来临小麦首当其冲的原因是,小麦蒸腾系数较大、生长的各阶段易受干旱影响,而北方地区降雨量不充沛,年际变化大、季节分配不均。
Up to date it has been held by Chinese scholars that the Great Famine of 1877–1878(known as the Ding-wu Disaster in Chinese) in North China had primarily been caused by drought, with the negative factors in the political and social contexts having exacerbated the disaster. This study has found that the main cause of the Famine had been the ‘wheat disaster', as it was a famine resulting from the poor wheat harvest caused by drought. This can be supported by the evaluations of the government officials as well as analyses based on other kinds of evidence during the period of the Famine. The reason why wheat,among the various types of grains, is the first to suffer from drought is that its transpiration coefficients are large, and the various stages of its growth are easily affected by drought. In addition, the precipitation in the northern region is not abundant, varying greatly from year to year, with an uneven distribution during the season of wheat growth.
Up to date it has been held by Chinese scholars that the Great Famine of 1877–1878(known as the Ding-wu Disaster in Chinese) in North China had primarily been caused by drought, with the negative factors in the political and social contexts having exacerbated the disaster. This study has found that the main cause of the Famine had been the ‘wheat disaster', as it was a famine resulting from the poor wheat harvest caused by drought. This can be supported by the evaluations of the government officials as well as analyses based on other kinds of evidence during the period of the Famine. The reason why wheat,among the various types of grains, is the first to suffer from drought is that its transpiration coefficients are large, and the various stages of its growth are easily affected by drought. In addition, the precipitation in the northern region is not abundant, varying greatly from year to year, with an uneven distribution during the season of wheat growth.
引文
[1]夏明方.也谈“丁戊奇荒”[J].清史研究,1992,(4)83-91.
[2]李文海等.中国近代十大灾荒[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1994,106-113.
[3]谭徐明.清代干旱档案史料[M].北京:中国书籍出版社2013,664.
[4]顾廷龙、戴逸.李鸿章全集[M].合肥:合肥教育出版社2008,422.
[5]谭其骧.中国历史地图集·清时期[M].北京:中国地图出版社,1987,7-27.
[6]何汉威.光绪初年(1876-1879)华北的大旱灾[M].香港:香港中文大学出版社,1980,122.
[7]宋应星.天工开物[M].钟广言注释,北京:中华书局,1978,33.
[8]韩茂莉.中国历史农业地理[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2012,348.
[9]李秋芳.明清时期华北平原粮食种植结构变迁研究[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2016,87.
[10]卜凯等.中国土地利用地图集[M].上海:商务印书馆1937,102.
[11]梁小进.曾国荃集[M].第一册,长沙:岳麓书社,2008304.
[12]袁保恒.文诚公集·奏议[M].卷6,项城袁氏家集本,23.
[13]西北大学历史系.旧民主主义革命时期陕西大事记述(1840-1919)[M].西安:陕西人民出版社,1984,72.
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[16]昆冈.钦定大清会典[M].卷21,光绪二十五年版.
[17]沈云龙.谭文勤公(钟麟)奏稿[M].台北:文海出版社,1973,208-211.
[18]李文海等.近代中国灾荒纪年[M].长沙:湖南教育出版社,1990,353.
[19]严兰坤.河北通史·清朝下[M].石家庄:河北人民出版社,2000,129.
[20]郝平、周亚.“丁戊奇荒”时期的山西粮价[J].史林,2008,(5):81-89.
[21]曹宪.汾西县志·祥异[M].卷7,光绪八年版,12.
[22]张鸿逵、茅丕熙.续修曲沃县志·志余[M].卷32,光绪六年版,26.
[23]《农业辞典》编辑委员会.农业辞典[M].南京:江苏科学技术出版社,1979,120.
[24]樊志民、冯风.关于历史上的旱灾与农业问题研究[J].中国农史,1988,(1):31-39.
[25]张养才等.中国农业气象灾害概论[M].北京:气象出版社,1991,297-299.
[26]竺可桢.论我国气候的几个特点及其与粮食作物生产的关系[J].地理学报,1964,30(1):1-13.
[27]刘正敏.小麦主产区遭遇罕见旱灾,全民斗旱魔或“人力胜天”[EB/OL],中国食品产业网,http://news foodqs.cn/schq001/2009213972745.html.2009-02-13.
[28]姚润丰、董峻.各地各部门紧急行动抗旱纪实:众志成城降服旱魔[EB/OL],中央政府门户网站,http://www gov.cn/Jrzg/2009-02/10/content_1226846.html.2009-02-10.
[29]我国粮食主产区成干旱重灾区干旱或成常态[EB/OL],潇湘晨报,https://news.qq.com/a/20110125/000101.html.2011-01-25.
[30]班固.汉书[M].北京:中华书局,1962,1120.
[31]曾雄生.杂种:农业生物多样性与中国农业的发展[J]中国乡镇企业,2013,(11):12-31.
[32]脱脱.宋史[M].北京:中华书局,1977,4159.
[33]徐光启.农政全书·凡例[M].石声汉校注,上海:上海古籍出版社,1977,3.
(1)这些省所辖的县级政区数量,统计自《中国历史地图集·清时期》1820年(清嘉庆二十五年)。
(1)此图据“丁戊奇荒”时期相关灾情资料,参考《光绪初年(1876-1879)华北的大旱灾》“华北五省被灾情况图”相关内容重绘。
(2)此图据光绪初年相关农业资料,参考《中国土地利用地图集》“20世纪30年代冬小麦占地比例分布图”相关内容重绘。
(1)“收成分数”指农田的收成状况,范围为一至十分,数值越大收成越好,数值越小收成越差。清制规定各省农田的“收成分数”由督抚按夏、秋两季分别上报。
(1)永济麦价自光绪二年(1876)开始攀升,在光绪三年七月份之前涨幅保持在50-70%范围内。……并于次年(1878)二月涨到每斗3650文,达到灾年的最高峰,是灾前价格的12倍。随后,麦价渐渐回落,但仍保持较高水平(即使至光绪五年立夏时,麦价每斗1300文,高出灾前价格3倍余)。辽州至光绪四年闰四月米价的最高峰(3350钱/斗),米价涨幅在10-40%之间,与永济麦价相比涨幅较小。而其峰值也略低于永济麦价的峰值(3650钱/斗)。之后,辽州米价以25-40%的幅度不断下跌,至九月份就已跌到1150钱/斗,从侧面说明灾情得到一定程度的缓解。而此时永济麦价尚保持着较高的水平,到光绪五年(1879)才慢慢回落。
(1)时任陕西巡抚谭钟麟指出:“北山延安、榆林、绥德、鄜州四府州所属二十三州县,地气本寒,麦种无多,向赖秋收,该汇入秋城案内开报。”
[2]李文海等.中国近代十大灾荒[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1994,106-113.
[3]谭徐明.清代干旱档案史料[M].北京:中国书籍出版社2013,664.
[4]顾廷龙、戴逸.李鸿章全集[M].合肥:合肥教育出版社2008,422.
[5]谭其骧.中国历史地图集·清时期[M].北京:中国地图出版社,1987,7-27.
[6]何汉威.光绪初年(1876-1879)华北的大旱灾[M].香港:香港中文大学出版社,1980,122.
[7]宋应星.天工开物[M].钟广言注释,北京:中华书局,1978,33.
[8]韩茂莉.中国历史农业地理[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2012,348.
[9]李秋芳.明清时期华北平原粮食种植结构变迁研究[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2016,87.
[10]卜凯等.中国土地利用地图集[M].上海:商务印书馆1937,102.
[11]梁小进.曾国荃集[M].第一册,长沙:岳麓书社,2008304.
[12]袁保恒.文诚公集·奏议[M].卷6,项城袁氏家集本,23.
[13]西北大学历史系.旧民主主义革命时期陕西大事记述(1840-1919)[M].西安:陕西人民出版社,1984,72.
[14]李文治.中国近代农业史资料[M].第1辑,上海:三联书店出版社,1957,746.
[15]董国柱.高陵碑石[M].西安:三秦出版社,1993,216.
[16]昆冈.钦定大清会典[M].卷21,光绪二十五年版.
[17]沈云龙.谭文勤公(钟麟)奏稿[M].台北:文海出版社,1973,208-211.
[18]李文海等.近代中国灾荒纪年[M].长沙:湖南教育出版社,1990,353.
[19]严兰坤.河北通史·清朝下[M].石家庄:河北人民出版社,2000,129.
[20]郝平、周亚.“丁戊奇荒”时期的山西粮价[J].史林,2008,(5):81-89.
[21]曹宪.汾西县志·祥异[M].卷7,光绪八年版,12.
[22]张鸿逵、茅丕熙.续修曲沃县志·志余[M].卷32,光绪六年版,26.
[23]《农业辞典》编辑委员会.农业辞典[M].南京:江苏科学技术出版社,1979,120.
[24]樊志民、冯风.关于历史上的旱灾与农业问题研究[J].中国农史,1988,(1):31-39.
[25]张养才等.中国农业气象灾害概论[M].北京:气象出版社,1991,297-299.
[26]竺可桢.论我国气候的几个特点及其与粮食作物生产的关系[J].地理学报,1964,30(1):1-13.
[27]刘正敏.小麦主产区遭遇罕见旱灾,全民斗旱魔或“人力胜天”[EB/OL],中国食品产业网,http://news foodqs.cn/schq001/2009213972745.html.2009-02-13.
[28]姚润丰、董峻.各地各部门紧急行动抗旱纪实:众志成城降服旱魔[EB/OL],中央政府门户网站,http://www gov.cn/Jrzg/2009-02/10/content_1226846.html.2009-02-10.
[29]我国粮食主产区成干旱重灾区干旱或成常态[EB/OL],潇湘晨报,https://news.qq.com/a/20110125/000101.html.2011-01-25.
[30]班固.汉书[M].北京:中华书局,1962,1120.
[31]曾雄生.杂种:农业生物多样性与中国农业的发展[J]中国乡镇企业,2013,(11):12-31.
[32]脱脱.宋史[M].北京:中华书局,1977,4159.
[33]徐光启.农政全书·凡例[M].石声汉校注,上海:上海古籍出版社,1977,3.
(1)这些省所辖的县级政区数量,统计自《中国历史地图集·清时期》1820年(清嘉庆二十五年)。
(1)此图据“丁戊奇荒”时期相关灾情资料,参考《光绪初年(1876-1879)华北的大旱灾》“华北五省被灾情况图”相关内容重绘。
(2)此图据光绪初年相关农业资料,参考《中国土地利用地图集》“20世纪30年代冬小麦占地比例分布图”相关内容重绘。
(1)“收成分数”指农田的收成状况,范围为一至十分,数值越大收成越好,数值越小收成越差。清制规定各省农田的“收成分数”由督抚按夏、秋两季分别上报。
(1)永济麦价自光绪二年(1876)开始攀升,在光绪三年七月份之前涨幅保持在50-70%范围内。……并于次年(1878)二月涨到每斗3650文,达到灾年的最高峰,是灾前价格的12倍。随后,麦价渐渐回落,但仍保持较高水平(即使至光绪五年立夏时,麦价每斗1300文,高出灾前价格3倍余)。辽州至光绪四年闰四月米价的最高峰(3350钱/斗),米价涨幅在10-40%之间,与永济麦价相比涨幅较小。而其峰值也略低于永济麦价的峰值(3650钱/斗)。之后,辽州米价以25-40%的幅度不断下跌,至九月份就已跌到1150钱/斗,从侧面说明灾情得到一定程度的缓解。而此时永济麦价尚保持着较高的水平,到光绪五年(1879)才慢慢回落。
(1)时任陕西巡抚谭钟麟指出:“北山延安、榆林、绥德、鄜州四府州所属二十三州县,地气本寒,麦种无多,向赖秋收,该汇入秋城案内开报。”