摘要
目前学界认为"丁戊奇荒"系旱灾,政治与社会层面的负面因素加剧了灾情。研究发现,"丁戊奇荒"主要是麦灾,是干旱来临麦作歉收导致的灾荒。"丁戊奇荒"期间政府官员的判断和基于其他证据的分析都能证明这一点。干旱来临小麦首当其冲的原因是,小麦蒸腾系数较大、生长的各阶段易受干旱影响,而北方地区降雨量不充沛,年际变化大、季节分配不均。
Up to date it has been held by Chinese scholars that the Great Famine of 1877–1878(known as the Ding-wu Disaster in Chinese) in North China had primarily been caused by drought, with the negative factors in the political and social contexts having exacerbated the disaster. This study has found that the main cause of the Famine had been the ‘wheat disaster', as it was a famine resulting from the poor wheat harvest caused by drought. This can be supported by the evaluations of the government officials as well as analyses based on other kinds of evidence during the period of the Famine. The reason why wheat,among the various types of grains, is the first to suffer from drought is that its transpiration coefficients are large, and the various stages of its growth are easily affected by drought. In addition, the precipitation in the northern region is not abundant, varying greatly from year to year, with an uneven distribution during the season of wheat growth.
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(1)这些省所辖的县级政区数量,统计自《中国历史地图集·清时期》1820年(清嘉庆二十五年)。
(1)此图据“丁戊奇荒”时期相关灾情资料,参考《光绪初年(1876-1879)华北的大旱灾》“华北五省被灾情况图”相关内容重绘。
(2)此图据光绪初年相关农业资料,参考《中国土地利用地图集》“20世纪30年代冬小麦占地比例分布图”相关内容重绘。
(1)“收成分数”指农田的收成状况,范围为一至十分,数值越大收成越好,数值越小收成越差。清制规定各省农田的“收成分数”由督抚按夏、秋两季分别上报。
(1)永济麦价自光绪二年(1876)开始攀升,在光绪三年七月份之前涨幅保持在50-70%范围内。……并于次年(1878)二月涨到每斗3650文,达到灾年的最高峰,是灾前价格的12倍。随后,麦价渐渐回落,但仍保持较高水平(即使至光绪五年立夏时,麦价每斗1300文,高出灾前价格3倍余)。辽州至光绪四年闰四月米价的最高峰(3350钱/斗),米价涨幅在10-40%之间,与永济麦价相比涨幅较小。而其峰值也略低于永济麦价的峰值(3650钱/斗)。之后,辽州米价以25-40%的幅度不断下跌,至九月份就已跌到1150钱/斗,从侧面说明灾情得到一定程度的缓解。而此时永济麦价尚保持着较高的水平,到光绪五年(1879)才慢慢回落。
(1)时任陕西巡抚谭钟麟指出:“北山延安、榆林、绥德、鄜州四府州所属二十三州县,地气本寒,麦种无多,向赖秋收,该汇入秋城案内开报。”