降温负荷研究
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摘要
随着居民生活水平的提高,降温负荷对电网产生的影响越来越大,所以对降温负荷的研究变得愈发重要。基于华中某地区2018年夏季6—8月负荷的研究,定量分析了日最大负荷、日电量和气温的关系,选取春季负荷作为基准值,估算出降温负荷,并将此运用于夏季大负荷预测中。提高短期负荷预测精度,为电网规划、运行、调度提供参考。
Along with the improvement of people's living standard,the power load for cooling has an increasing impact on the power grid operation.Therefore,the research of cooling load becomes more and more important.Based on the research of summer load in a certain area in central China from June to August 2018,the relationship between daily maximum power load,daily electricity and temperature is quantitatively analyzed,and the spring power load is selected as the reference value to estimate the power load for cooling,which is applied to the heavy power load forecasting in summer.The method can improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting and provide reference for grid planning,operation and dispatching.
Along with the improvement of people's living standard,the power load for cooling has an increasing impact on the power grid operation.Therefore,the research of cooling load becomes more and more important.Based on the research of summer load in a certain area in central China from June to August 2018,the relationship between daily maximum power load,daily electricity and temperature is quantitatively analyzed,and the spring power load is selected as the reference value to estimate the power load for cooling,which is applied to the heavy power load forecasting in summer.The method can improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting and provide reference for grid planning,operation and dispatching.
引文
[1]康重庆,夏清,张伯明.电力系统负荷预测研究综述与发展方向探讨[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(17):1-11.
[2]刘思捷,张海鹏,林舜江.夏季日最大降温负荷的估算和预测方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(5):75-81.
[3]崔和瑞,彭旭.基于ARIMAX模型的夏季短期电力负荷预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,43(4):108-114.
[2]刘思捷,张海鹏,林舜江.夏季日最大降温负荷的估算和预测方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(5):75-81.
[3]崔和瑞,彭旭.基于ARIMAX模型的夏季短期电力负荷预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,43(4):108-114.