“一带一路”沿线国家贸易便利化水平对中国出口贸易影响研究
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摘要
本文从口岸效率、海关环境、规制环境和金融电商四方面构建了贸易便利化水平的测算指标体系,对"一带一路"沿线各国的贸易便利化水平进行了测算。利用贸易引力模型将"一带一路"沿线国家贸易便利化水平对中国出口贸易的影响进行了整体效应、分区域效应和分措施效应等3个方面的分析。研究发现:贸易便利化水平、沿线国国内生产总值、沿线国与中国接壤以及与中国签订自由贸易协定均能对中国向该国的出口贸易产生正向影响;而关税水平、人均国内生产总值以及沿线国首都与北京的直线距离则会对中国向该国的出口贸易产生负向影响。
The measurement index system of trade facilitation level was established from the four aspects of port efficiency,customs environment,regulatory environment and financial e-commerce,and the trade facilitation level of countries along the"B&R"was measured.The trade gravitation model was used to analyze the impact of the trade facilitation level of the countries along the"B&R"on China's export trade in terms of overall effects,sub-regional effects and sub-measure effects.It was found that the level of trade facilitation,the GDP of the countries along the routes,countries along the routes bordering China and signing free trade agreements with China can have a positive impact on China's export trade to the country.But the tariff levels,per capita GDP,and the straight-line distance between the capitals of the countries along the line and Beijing would have a negative impact on China's export trade to the country.
The measurement index system of trade facilitation level was established from the four aspects of port efficiency,customs environment,regulatory environment and financial e-commerce,and the trade facilitation level of countries along the"B&R"was measured.The trade gravitation model was used to analyze the impact of the trade facilitation level of the countries along the"B&R"on China's export trade in terms of overall effects,sub-regional effects and sub-measure effects.It was found that the level of trade facilitation,the GDP of the countries along the routes,countries along the routes bordering China and signing free trade agreements with China can have a positive impact on China's export trade to the country.But the tariff levels,per capita GDP,and the straight-line distance between the capitals of the countries along the line and Beijing would have a negative impact on China's export trade to the country.
引文
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[20]陆露.贸易便利化对中国跨境电商出口的影响效应研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2018.
[21]张淑辉.金砖国家贸易便利化对中国农产品出口的影响分析[J].经济问题,2018,(4):116～122.
[22]田泽,程飞.“一带一路”沿线省市对外贸易—经济—环境耦合关系与空间效应研究[J].软科学,2018,32(7):25～29.
[2]Wilson J S,Mann C L,Otsuki T.Trade Facilitation and Economic Development:A New Approach to Quantifying the Impact[J].World Bank Economic Review,2003,17(3):367～389.
[3]Marquezramos L,Martinezzarzoso I,Su??Rezburguet C.Trade Policy Versus Trade Facilitation:An Application Using‘Good Old’OLS[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2012,6(11):1～38.
[4]Mo?sé E,Orliac T.Trade Facilitation Indicators:The Potential Impact of Trade Facilitation on Developing Countries[R].OECD Trade Policy Papers,2013,No.144.
[5]彭羽,陈争辉.中国(上海)自由贸易试验区投资贸易便利化评价指标体系研究[J].国际经贸探索,2014,30(10):63～75.
[6]崔日明,黄英婉.“一带一路”沿线国家贸易投资便利化评价指标体系研究[J].国际贸易问题,2016,(9):153～164.
[7]田泽.建设“丝路经济带”背景下中国对中东国家投资环境评价研究[J].现代经济探讨,2016,(1):45～49.
[8]田泽,诸竹君,刘超.中国企业对非洲直接投资提高了加成率吗?[J].现代经济探讨,2017,(7):55～62.
[9]陈雨蓉.贸易便利化对中国出口贸易影响的研究[D].南京:南京大学,2018.
[10]欧葵.CAREC成员国贸易便利化水平测算及思考[J].经济论坛,2014,(6):146～151.
[11]朱剑冰,吕静.贸易便利化评价指标体系研究及其应用[J].湖南大学学报(社会科学版),2015,29(6):70～75.
[12]张亚斌,刘俊,李城霖.丝绸之路经济带贸易便利化测度及中国贸易潜力[J].财经科学,2016,(5):112～122.
[13]Persson M.From Trade Preferences to Trade Facilitation:Taking Stock of the Issues[J].Economics-The Open-Access,Open-Assessment E-Journal,2012,6(2012-17):1～33.
[14]Amin M,Haidar J I.Trade Facilitation and Country Size[J].Empirical Economics,2014,47(4):1441～1466.
[15]汪洁,全毅.21世纪海上丝绸之路贸易便利化研究[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2015,(6):36～46.
[16]孔庆峰,董虹蔚.“一带一路”国家的贸易便利化水平测算与贸易潜力研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015,(12):158～168.
[17]杨军,黄洁,洪俊杰,等.贸易便利化对中国经济影响分析[J].国际贸易问题,2015,(9):156～166.
[18]谭晶荣,华曦.贸易便利化对中国农产品出口的影响研究——基于丝绸之路沿线国家的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2016,(5):39～49.
[19]黄丹萍.我国与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易潜力研究[D].济南:山东大学,2018.
[20]陆露.贸易便利化对中国跨境电商出口的影响效应研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2018.
[21]张淑辉.金砖国家贸易便利化对中国农产品出口的影响分析[J].经济问题,2018,(4):116～122.
[22]田泽,程飞.“一带一路”沿线省市对外贸易—经济—环境耦合关系与空间效应研究[J].软科学,2018,32(7):25～29.