本溪市郊近60年气温变化特征和突变分析
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摘要
根据本溪市郊1953—2015年近63年的气温资料,运用线性倾向估计、累积距平和Mann—Kendall法,分析年际和各个季节平均气温的变化趋势和突变情况。结果表明:近63年来本溪市郊气温以增温为主,冬季气温增温最为显著;年、春和冬季气温以20世纪80年代后期为界,夏季和秋季以20世纪90年代初期为界,之前为相对冷期,其后为相对暖期;根据Mann-Kendall检验法,得出年和冬季在20世纪80年代期间发生突变,20世纪90年代初期后气温显著增高;而夏季和秋季在20世纪90年代中期发生突变,21世纪初期后增温显著,春季在20世纪70年代后期发生突变,20世纪90年代初期后气温显著增高。
According to the temperature data of the past 63 years from 1953 to 2015 in the suburbs of Benxi,linear tendency estimation,cumulative distance and Mann-Kendall method were used to calculate the changes and mutations in the average temperature trends between years and seasons.The results show that:In the past 63 years,The temperature in the suburbs of Benxi is mainly increased,and the temperature increase in winter is the most significant;In the suburbs of Benxi,the temperature in spring and winter is bounded by the late 1980s,while Xiahe's autumn is bounded by the early 1990s,before the relatively cold period followed by a relatively warm period;According to the Mann-Kendall test,the year and winter mutated during the 1980s,and the temperature increased significantly after the early 1990s,while Xiahe's autumn mutated in the mid-1990s,in the early 21st century.After significant warming,The spring mutated in the late 1970s and the temperature increased significantly after the early 1990s.
According to the temperature data of the past 63 years from 1953 to 2015 in the suburbs of Benxi,linear tendency estimation,cumulative distance and Mann-Kendall method were used to calculate the changes and mutations in the average temperature trends between years and seasons.The results show that:In the past 63 years,The temperature in the suburbs of Benxi is mainly increased,and the temperature increase in winter is the most significant;In the suburbs of Benxi,the temperature in spring and winter is bounded by the late 1980s,while Xiahe's autumn is bounded by the early 1990s,before the relatively cold period followed by a relatively warm period;According to the Mann-Kendall test,the year and winter mutated during the 1980s,and the temperature increased significantly after the early 1990s,while Xiahe's autumn mutated in the mid-1990s,in the early 21st century.After significant warming,The spring mutated in the late 1970s and the temperature increased significantly after the early 1990s.
引文
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[3]王绍武,董光荣.中国西部环境特征及其演变//中国西部环境演变评估[C].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[4]丁一汇.中国西部环境变化的预测//中国西部环境演变评估[C].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[5]徐宗学,隋彩虹.黄河流域平均气温变化趋势分析[J].气象,2005,31(11):7-16.
[6]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:37-40,43-44,63-66.
[7]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,1981:315.
[8]吉奇,宋翼凤,刘辉.近50年东北地区温度降水变化特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,2006,22(5):1-5.