城市生活垃圾的解耦分析——来自空间计量模型的新证据
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摘要
文章旨在从垃圾产生源头考察经济增长与城市生活垃圾产生量的动态关系,以此判定解耦状态。基于2004—2016年中国31个省级行政区的面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型对城市人均生活垃圾产生量与居民消费水平进行解耦分析。纳入空间因素后,城市人均生活垃圾产生量与城镇居民消费水平之间的"倒N形"曲线关系更加显著和稳健,并呈现出相对解耦,但尚未达到绝对解耦。更为重要的是,考虑空间因素之后,城市人均生活垃圾产生量的预测峰值将会推迟到来。在未来30年里,城市人均生活垃圾产生量还将持续增加,如何提升资源使用效率,实现经济发展与生活垃圾产生量的绝对解耦将是政策当局必须充分考虑的重大议题。
This paper aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between economic activity and municipal solid waste(MSW) generation from the source, so as to ascertain whether decoupling is occurring or not. Based on a panel data of 31 Chinese provinces during the period between 2004 and 2016, the dynamic relationship between MSW generation per capita and urban residents' consumption was analyzed by employing the Spatial Durbin Model(SDM). After spatial factors are incorporated, results show that there is even more significant and steady inverted "N" shaped WKC curve between them, and there appears relative decoupling, though not absolute decoupling. More importantly, the predicted peak of MSW generation per capita will be delayed after considering the spatial effects. MSW generation per capita will continue to increase in the coming 30 years. How to improve the efficiency of resource, so as to realize the absolute decoupling of economic development and MSW generation is a major issue that the policy authorities must consider fully.
This paper aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between economic activity and municipal solid waste(MSW) generation from the source, so as to ascertain whether decoupling is occurring or not. Based on a panel data of 31 Chinese provinces during the period between 2004 and 2016, the dynamic relationship between MSW generation per capita and urban residents' consumption was analyzed by employing the Spatial Durbin Model(SDM). After spatial factors are incorporated, results show that there is even more significant and steady inverted "N" shaped WKC curve between them, and there appears relative decoupling, though not absolute decoupling. More importantly, the predicted peak of MSW generation per capita will be delayed after considering the spatial effects. MSW generation per capita will continue to increase in the coming 30 years. How to improve the efficiency of resource, so as to realize the absolute decoupling of economic development and MSW generation is a major issue that the policy authorities must consider fully.
引文
[1]HOORNWEG D,LAM P,CHALLOHRY M.Waste management in China:issue and recommendations[R].Washington,DC:East Asia Infrastructue Development,The world Bank,2005.
[2]MIAN M M,ZENG X,NASRY A N B,et al.Municipal solid waste management in China:a comparative analysis[J].Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management,2017,19(3):1127-1135.
[3]JAMBECK J R,GEYER R,WILCOX C,et al.Plastic waste inputs from land into the ocean[J].Science,2015,347(6223):768-771.
[4]TONG X,TAO D.The rise and fall of a “waste city” in the construction of an “urban circular economic system”:the changing landscape of waste in Beijing[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2016,117(2):10-17.
[5]COPELAND B R,TAYLOR M S.Trade,growth,and the environment[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2004,42(1):7-71.
[6]张志坚,王学渊,赵连阁.社会资本对生活垃圾减量的影响及其作用机制[J].商业经济与管理,2019(2):117-126.
[7]吴晓林,邓聪慧.城市垃圾分类何以成功?——来自台北市的案例研究[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2017(6):117-126.
[8]徐林,凌卯亮,卢昱杰.城市居民垃圾分类的影响因素研究[J].公共管理学报,2017(1):142-153.
[9]高军波,乔伟峰,刘彦随,等.超越困境:转型期中国城市邻避设施供给模式重构——基于番禺垃圾焚烧发电厂选址反思[J].中国软科学,2016(1):98-108.
[10]江源.中国城市环境管理的可持续发展对策——生活垃圾管理中新政策的可导入性分析[J].管理世界,2002(2):65-73.
[11]李晓东,陆胜勇,徐旭,等.中国部分城市生活垃圾热值的分析[J].中国环境科学,2001(2):156-160.
[12]黄福义,安新丽,李力,等.生活垃圾填埋场对河流抗生素抗性基因的影响[J].中国环境科学,2017(1):203-209.
[13]杨超,何小松,席北斗,等.填埋初期水溶性有机物结构受电子转移的影响[J].中国环境科学,2017(1):229-237.
[14]GHARFALKAR M,COURT R,CAMPBELL C,et al.Analysis of waste hierarchy in the European waste directive 2008/98/EC[J].Waste Management,2015,39(5):305-313.
[15]LOZANO S,IRIBARREN D,MOREIRA M T,et al.The link between operational efficiency and environmental impacts:a joint application of life cycle assessment and data envelopment analysis[J].Science of the Total Environment,2009,407(5):1744-1754.
[16]ROGGE N,DE JAEGER S.Evaluating the efficiency of municipalities in collecting and processing municipal solid waste:a shared input DEA-model[J].Waste Management,2012,32(10):1968-1978.
[17]SIM?ES P,MARQUES R C.How does the operational environment affect utility performance?A parametric study on the waste sector[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2011,55(7):695-702.
[18]PEARCE D.Does EU environmental policy pass a cost-benefit test?[J].World Economics,2004,15(3):115-137.
[19]GUPTA S.Decoupling:a step toward sustainable development with reference to OECD countries[J].International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology,2015,22(6):510-519.
[20]LLORCA M,OREA L,POLLITT M G.Efficiency and environmental factors in the US electricity transmission industry[J].Energy Economics,2016,55:234-246.
[21]OECD.Indicators to measure decoupling of environmental pressure from economic growth[R].Paris:OECD,2002.
[22]KOVANDA J,HAK T.What are the possibilities for graphical presentation of decoupling?An example of economy-wide material flow indicators in the Czech Republic[J].Ecological Indicators,2007,7(1):123-132.
[23]GROSSMAN G M,KRUEGER A B.Economic growth and the environment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-377.
[24]SELDEN T M,SONG D.Environmental quality and development:is there a Kuznets Curve for air pollution emissions?[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1994,27(2):147-162.
[25]HOLTZ-EAKIN D,SELDEN T.Stoking the fires?CO2 emissions and economic growth[J].Journal of Public Economics,1995,57(8):85-101.
[26]KUZNETS S.Economic growth and income inequality[J].The American Economic Review,1955,45(1):1-28.
[27]BECKERMAN W.Economic growth and the environment:whose growth?Whose environment?[J].World Development,1992,20(4):481-496.
[28]STERN D I,COMMON M S,BARBIER E B.Economic growth and environmental degradation:the Environmental Kuznets Curve and sustainable development[J].World Development,1996,24(7):1151-1160.
[29]WERTZ K L.Economic factors influencing households' production of refuse[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1976,2(4):263-272.
[30]COLE M A,RAYNER A J,BATES J M.The Environmental Kuznets Curve:an empirical analysis[J].Environment and Development Economics,1997,2(4):401-416.
[31]WANG P,BOHARA A K,BERRENS R P,et al.A risk-based Environmental Kuznets Curve for US hazardous waste sites[J].Applied Economics Letters,1998,5(12):761-763.
[32]FISCHER-KOWALSKI M,AMANN C.Beyond IPAT and Kuznets Curves:globalization as a vital factor in analysing the environmental impact of socio-economic metabolism[J].Population and Environment,2001,23(1):7-47.
[33]JOHNSTONE N,LABONNE J.Generation of household solid waste in OECD countries:an empirical analysis using macroeconomic data[J].Land Economics,2004,80(4):529-538.
[34]ANSELIN L.Spatial effects in econometric practice in environmental and resource economics[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2001,83(3):705-710.
[35]TOBLER W R.A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit Region[J].Economic Geography,1970,46:234-240.
[36]TIAN L,WANG H H,CHEN Y.Spatial externalities in China regional economic growth[J].China Economic Review,2010,21(S1):S20-S31.
[37]孔令强,田光进,柳晓娟.中国城市生活固体垃圾排放时空特征[J].中国环境科学,2017(4):1408-1417.
[38]REVELLI F.On spatial public finance empirics[J].International Tax and Public Finance,2005,12(4):475-492.
[39]ELHORST P,PIRAS G,ARBIA G.Growth and convergence in a multiregional model with space-time dynamics[J].Geographical Analysis,2010,42(3):338-355.
[40]MOSCONE F,TOSETTI E,VITTADINI G.Social interaction in patients' hospital choice:evidence from Italy[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society(Series A:Statistics in Society) 2012,175(2):453-472.
[41]MOSCONE F,KNAPP M.Exploring the spatial pattern of mental health expenditure[J].The Journal of Mental Health Policy and Economics,2005,8(4):205-217.
[42]廖传惠.中国城市生活垃圾EKC曲线特征及其成因分析[J].城市发展研究,2013(12):143-146.
[43]曹海艳,葛新权,李晓非.城市居民收入水平与生活垃圾产生量关系研究[J].统计与决策,2017(6):93-96.
[44]SOBHEE K S.The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC):a logistic curve?[J].Applied Economics Letters,2004,11(7):449-452.
[45]MORAN P A P.Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena[J].Biometrika,1950,37(1/2):17.
[46]HAO Y,LIU Y,WENG J-H,et al.Does the Environmental Kuznets Curve for coal consumption in China exist?New evidence from spatial econometric analysis[J].Energy,2016,114(10):1214-1223.
[47]MAZZANTI M,ZOBOLI R.Delinking and Environmental Kuznets Curves for waste indicators in Europe[J].Environmental Science,2005,2(4):409-425.
[48]HOLZ C A.The quality of China's GDP statistics[J].China Economic Review,2014,30:309-338.
[49]ROTHMAN D S.Environmental Kuznets Curves——Real progress or passing the buck?A case for consumption-based approaches[J].Ecological Economics,1998,25(2):177-194.
[50]HARBAUGH W T,LEVINSON A,WILSON D M.Reexamining the empirical evidence for an Environmental Kuznets Curve[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2002,84(3):541-551.
[51]MARKANDYA A,GOLUB A,PEDROSO-GALINATO S.Empirical analysis of National Income and SO2 emissions in selected European countries[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2006,35(3):221-257.
[52]YANG H L,INNES R.Economic incentives and residential waste management in Taiwan:an empirical investigation[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2007,37(3):489-519.
[53]OZAWA T.Hotelling rule and the landfill exhaustion problem:case of Tokyo city[J].Studies in Regional Science,2005,35(1):215-230.
[54]LANG J C.Zero landfill,zero waste:the greening of industry in Singapore[J].International Journal of Environment and Sustainable Development,2005,4(3):331-351.
[55]HAN H,ZHANG Z,XIA S.The crowding-out effects of garbage fees and voluntary source separation programs on waste reduction:evidence from China[J].Sustainability (Switzerland),2016,8(7):678.
[56]BENíTEZ S O,LOZANO-OLVERA G,MORELOS R A,et al.Mathematical modeling to predict residential solid waste generation[J].Waste Management,2008,28(1):S7-S13.
[57]ELHORST J P.Specification and estimation of Spatial Panel Data Models[J].International Regional Science Review,2003,26(3):244-268.
[58]BELOTTI F,MORTARI A P,HUGHES G.Spatial panel data models using Stata[J].Stata Journal,2017,17(1):139-180.
[59]JENKINS R R,MARTINEZ S A,PALMER K,et al.The determinants of household recycling:a material-specific analysis of recycling program features and unit pricing[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2003,45(2):294-318.
[60]HAGE O,S?DERHOLM P.An econometric analysis of regional differences in household waste collection:the case of plastic packaging waste in Sweden[J].Waste Management,2008,28(10):1720-1731.
(1)基于充分考虑空间相关性的原因,本文先采用广义嵌套空间回归模型(General Nesting Spatial Regress Model)进行了估计,但是误差空间相关项的估计系数在距离倒数矩阵和距离倒数邻接矩阵中均不显著,也佐证了应用空间杜宾模型(SDM)进行参数估计的合理性。
(2)不包括台湾省、香港和澳门特别行政区。
(3)详见国家邮政局《2018年3月中国快递发展指数报告》。
(4)按照城市居民消费水平价格指数(1978=100)将城市居民消费水平的名义值折算为实际值。
(5)根据国家统计局网站的生活垃圾清运量和生活垃圾卫生填埋处理量计算整理。
[2]MIAN M M,ZENG X,NASRY A N B,et al.Municipal solid waste management in China:a comparative analysis[J].Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management,2017,19(3):1127-1135.
[3]JAMBECK J R,GEYER R,WILCOX C,et al.Plastic waste inputs from land into the ocean[J].Science,2015,347(6223):768-771.
[4]TONG X,TAO D.The rise and fall of a “waste city” in the construction of an “urban circular economic system”:the changing landscape of waste in Beijing[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2016,117(2):10-17.
[5]COPELAND B R,TAYLOR M S.Trade,growth,and the environment[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2004,42(1):7-71.
[6]张志坚,王学渊,赵连阁.社会资本对生活垃圾减量的影响及其作用机制[J].商业经济与管理,2019(2):117-126.
[7]吴晓林,邓聪慧.城市垃圾分类何以成功?——来自台北市的案例研究[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2017(6):117-126.
[8]徐林,凌卯亮,卢昱杰.城市居民垃圾分类的影响因素研究[J].公共管理学报,2017(1):142-153.
[9]高军波,乔伟峰,刘彦随,等.超越困境:转型期中国城市邻避设施供给模式重构——基于番禺垃圾焚烧发电厂选址反思[J].中国软科学,2016(1):98-108.
[10]江源.中国城市环境管理的可持续发展对策——生活垃圾管理中新政策的可导入性分析[J].管理世界,2002(2):65-73.
[11]李晓东,陆胜勇,徐旭,等.中国部分城市生活垃圾热值的分析[J].中国环境科学,2001(2):156-160.
[12]黄福义,安新丽,李力,等.生活垃圾填埋场对河流抗生素抗性基因的影响[J].中国环境科学,2017(1):203-209.
[13]杨超,何小松,席北斗,等.填埋初期水溶性有机物结构受电子转移的影响[J].中国环境科学,2017(1):229-237.
[14]GHARFALKAR M,COURT R,CAMPBELL C,et al.Analysis of waste hierarchy in the European waste directive 2008/98/EC[J].Waste Management,2015,39(5):305-313.
[15]LOZANO S,IRIBARREN D,MOREIRA M T,et al.The link between operational efficiency and environmental impacts:a joint application of life cycle assessment and data envelopment analysis[J].Science of the Total Environment,2009,407(5):1744-1754.
[16]ROGGE N,DE JAEGER S.Evaluating the efficiency of municipalities in collecting and processing municipal solid waste:a shared input DEA-model[J].Waste Management,2012,32(10):1968-1978.
[17]SIM?ES P,MARQUES R C.How does the operational environment affect utility performance?A parametric study on the waste sector[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2011,55(7):695-702.
[18]PEARCE D.Does EU environmental policy pass a cost-benefit test?[J].World Economics,2004,15(3):115-137.
[19]GUPTA S.Decoupling:a step toward sustainable development with reference to OECD countries[J].International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology,2015,22(6):510-519.
[20]LLORCA M,OREA L,POLLITT M G.Efficiency and environmental factors in the US electricity transmission industry[J].Energy Economics,2016,55:234-246.
[21]OECD.Indicators to measure decoupling of environmental pressure from economic growth[R].Paris:OECD,2002.
[22]KOVANDA J,HAK T.What are the possibilities for graphical presentation of decoupling?An example of economy-wide material flow indicators in the Czech Republic[J].Ecological Indicators,2007,7(1):123-132.
[23]GROSSMAN G M,KRUEGER A B.Economic growth and the environment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-377.
[24]SELDEN T M,SONG D.Environmental quality and development:is there a Kuznets Curve for air pollution emissions?[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1994,27(2):147-162.
[25]HOLTZ-EAKIN D,SELDEN T.Stoking the fires?CO2 emissions and economic growth[J].Journal of Public Economics,1995,57(8):85-101.
[26]KUZNETS S.Economic growth and income inequality[J].The American Economic Review,1955,45(1):1-28.
[27]BECKERMAN W.Economic growth and the environment:whose growth?Whose environment?[J].World Development,1992,20(4):481-496.
[28]STERN D I,COMMON M S,BARBIER E B.Economic growth and environmental degradation:the Environmental Kuznets Curve and sustainable development[J].World Development,1996,24(7):1151-1160.
[29]WERTZ K L.Economic factors influencing households' production of refuse[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1976,2(4):263-272.
[30]COLE M A,RAYNER A J,BATES J M.The Environmental Kuznets Curve:an empirical analysis[J].Environment and Development Economics,1997,2(4):401-416.
[31]WANG P,BOHARA A K,BERRENS R P,et al.A risk-based Environmental Kuznets Curve for US hazardous waste sites[J].Applied Economics Letters,1998,5(12):761-763.
[32]FISCHER-KOWALSKI M,AMANN C.Beyond IPAT and Kuznets Curves:globalization as a vital factor in analysing the environmental impact of socio-economic metabolism[J].Population and Environment,2001,23(1):7-47.
[33]JOHNSTONE N,LABONNE J.Generation of household solid waste in OECD countries:an empirical analysis using macroeconomic data[J].Land Economics,2004,80(4):529-538.
[34]ANSELIN L.Spatial effects in econometric practice in environmental and resource economics[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2001,83(3):705-710.
[35]TOBLER W R.A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit Region[J].Economic Geography,1970,46:234-240.
[36]TIAN L,WANG H H,CHEN Y.Spatial externalities in China regional economic growth[J].China Economic Review,2010,21(S1):S20-S31.
[37]孔令强,田光进,柳晓娟.中国城市生活固体垃圾排放时空特征[J].中国环境科学,2017(4):1408-1417.
[38]REVELLI F.On spatial public finance empirics[J].International Tax and Public Finance,2005,12(4):475-492.
[39]ELHORST P,PIRAS G,ARBIA G.Growth and convergence in a multiregional model with space-time dynamics[J].Geographical Analysis,2010,42(3):338-355.
[40]MOSCONE F,TOSETTI E,VITTADINI G.Social interaction in patients' hospital choice:evidence from Italy[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society(Series A:Statistics in Society) 2012,175(2):453-472.
[41]MOSCONE F,KNAPP M.Exploring the spatial pattern of mental health expenditure[J].The Journal of Mental Health Policy and Economics,2005,8(4):205-217.
[42]廖传惠.中国城市生活垃圾EKC曲线特征及其成因分析[J].城市发展研究,2013(12):143-146.
[43]曹海艳,葛新权,李晓非.城市居民收入水平与生活垃圾产生量关系研究[J].统计与决策,2017(6):93-96.
[44]SOBHEE K S.The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC):a logistic curve?[J].Applied Economics Letters,2004,11(7):449-452.
[45]MORAN P A P.Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena[J].Biometrika,1950,37(1/2):17.
[46]HAO Y,LIU Y,WENG J-H,et al.Does the Environmental Kuznets Curve for coal consumption in China exist?New evidence from spatial econometric analysis[J].Energy,2016,114(10):1214-1223.
[47]MAZZANTI M,ZOBOLI R.Delinking and Environmental Kuznets Curves for waste indicators in Europe[J].Environmental Science,2005,2(4):409-425.
[48]HOLZ C A.The quality of China's GDP statistics[J].China Economic Review,2014,30:309-338.
[49]ROTHMAN D S.Environmental Kuznets Curves——Real progress or passing the buck?A case for consumption-based approaches[J].Ecological Economics,1998,25(2):177-194.
[50]HARBAUGH W T,LEVINSON A,WILSON D M.Reexamining the empirical evidence for an Environmental Kuznets Curve[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2002,84(3):541-551.
[51]MARKANDYA A,GOLUB A,PEDROSO-GALINATO S.Empirical analysis of National Income and SO2 emissions in selected European countries[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2006,35(3):221-257.
[52]YANG H L,INNES R.Economic incentives and residential waste management in Taiwan:an empirical investigation[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2007,37(3):489-519.
[53]OZAWA T.Hotelling rule and the landfill exhaustion problem:case of Tokyo city[J].Studies in Regional Science,2005,35(1):215-230.
[54]LANG J C.Zero landfill,zero waste:the greening of industry in Singapore[J].International Journal of Environment and Sustainable Development,2005,4(3):331-351.
[55]HAN H,ZHANG Z,XIA S.The crowding-out effects of garbage fees and voluntary source separation programs on waste reduction:evidence from China[J].Sustainability (Switzerland),2016,8(7):678.
[56]BENíTEZ S O,LOZANO-OLVERA G,MORELOS R A,et al.Mathematical modeling to predict residential solid waste generation[J].Waste Management,2008,28(1):S7-S13.
[57]ELHORST J P.Specification and estimation of Spatial Panel Data Models[J].International Regional Science Review,2003,26(3):244-268.
[58]BELOTTI F,MORTARI A P,HUGHES G.Spatial panel data models using Stata[J].Stata Journal,2017,17(1):139-180.
[59]JENKINS R R,MARTINEZ S A,PALMER K,et al.The determinants of household recycling:a material-specific analysis of recycling program features and unit pricing[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2003,45(2):294-318.
[60]HAGE O,S?DERHOLM P.An econometric analysis of regional differences in household waste collection:the case of plastic packaging waste in Sweden[J].Waste Management,2008,28(10):1720-1731.
(1)基于充分考虑空间相关性的原因,本文先采用广义嵌套空间回归模型(General Nesting Spatial Regress Model)进行了估计,但是误差空间相关项的估计系数在距离倒数矩阵和距离倒数邻接矩阵中均不显著,也佐证了应用空间杜宾模型(SDM)进行参数估计的合理性。
(2)不包括台湾省、香港和澳门特别行政区。
(3)详见国家邮政局《2018年3月中国快递发展指数报告》。
(4)按照城市居民消费水平价格指数(1978=100)将城市居民消费水平的名义值折算为实际值。
(5)根据国家统计局网站的生活垃圾清运量和生活垃圾卫生填埋处理量计算整理。