气候变化和人类活动对渭河流域径流量的影响
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摘要
采用M-K趋势检验法、有序聚类变点分析法以及径流变化归因分离评判方法,分析渭河流域近50 a的气温、降水、径流的演变特征和径流量变化的影响因素。结果表明:流域气温升高趋势显著,通过95%的置信度水平检验,其中1994年是气温突变的节点;流域降水量呈缓慢减少的态势,变化节点发生在1969年;流域径流量减少趋势极显著,通过95%的置信度水平检验,突变节点发生在1969年,与降水突变节点一致。由VIC模型计算得出:流域径流量的变化主要由气候波动和人类活动改变流域下垫面共同作用引起的,其中气候变化的影响较大。
The M-K trend test method,ordered clustering variable point analysis and runoff change attribution evaluation method are used to analyze the evolution characteristics of temperature,precipitation and runoff and the influencing factors of runoff change in the Wei River Basin in the past 50 years. The results show that the temperature rise in the basin is significant,and it is tested by 95% confidence level,in which 1994 is the period with sudden temperature change; the precipitation in the basin is slowly decreasing,and the change point occurs in1969; the runoff in the basin significantly decreased. The sharp curve occurred in 1969 through a 95% confidence level test,consistent with the precipitation curve. It is calculated from the VIC model that the change of runoff is mainly caused by the combination of climate fluctuations and human activities changing the underlying surface of the basin,and the impact of climate change is greater.
The M-K trend test method,ordered clustering variable point analysis and runoff change attribution evaluation method are used to analyze the evolution characteristics of temperature,precipitation and runoff and the influencing factors of runoff change in the Wei River Basin in the past 50 years. The results show that the temperature rise in the basin is significant,and it is tested by 95% confidence level,in which 1994 is the period with sudden temperature change; the precipitation in the basin is slowly decreasing,and the change point occurs in1969; the runoff in the basin significantly decreased. The sharp curve occurred in 1969 through a 95% confidence level test,consistent with the precipitation curve. It is calculated from the VIC model that the change of runoff is mainly caused by the combination of climate fluctuations and human activities changing the underlying surface of the basin,and the impact of climate change is greater.
引文
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[3]王国庆,史忠海.气候变化对黄河上游水文的影响[J].河南气象,2000(04):20-22.
[4]袁飞,谢正辉,任立良,等.气候变化对海河流域水文特性的影响[J].水利学报,2005,36(03):274-279.
[5]魏智,蓝永超,吴锦奎,王树洲.黄河源区水资源对气候变化的响应[J].人民黄河,2006(03):36-39.
[6]周祖昊,仇亚琴,贾仰文,等.变化环境下渭河流域水资源演变规律分析[J].水文,2009,29(01):22-25.
[7]占车生,乔晨,徐宗学,等.渭河流域近50年来气候变化趋势及突变分析[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(04):399-404.
[8]王国庆.气候变化对黄河中游水文水资源影响的关键问题研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.