基于气候生产潜力的云南人粮关系及其未来变化
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摘要
基于云南117个气象站1961-2015年观测实况及全球气候模式模拟的2016-2055年年平均气温、降水量数据,使用ThornthwaiteMemorial模型计算并分析云南各地气候生产潜力(T_(spv))的时空变化特征,构建并计算T_(spv)的人口承载力(T_(spv)-人口承载力)和气候承载力指数。结果表明:(1)云南T_(spv)呈现明显的纬向分布及垂直分布特征,总体表现为南部高于北部,低海拔地区高于高海拔地区,降水是云南T_(spv)主要限制因子;(2)1961-2015年全省T_(spv)仅滇西的部分地区显著增加,滇中局部等地显著减少,其余地区变化不显著,全省平均T_(spv)年际波动大,在2009年前后发生突变;(3)2006-2015年云南人均粮食供应稳定增长,接近或超过小康型粮食需求,耕地的人口承载力(耕地-人口承载力)逐年增加,但远低于T_(spv)-人口承载力,即使在极端减产年,T_(spv)-人口承载力水平仍能满足当前人口、耕地规模下富裕型粮食需求,人粮关系状态为盈余;(4)如果保持现有稳定的人口、耕地及生产力水平增幅,未来不同的排放情景下,云南T_(spv)及T_(spv)-人口承载力都将稳定增加,人粮关系状态以粮食盈余为主,且高排放情景下承载力和人粮关系状态水平均优于低排放情景。
In order to analyze and compare population carrying capacity and human-grain relationship based on food supply and climatic potential productivity(T_(spv)) in Yunnan, population carrying capacity and human-grain relationship under future climate change were predicted. In this study, using average temperature and annual precipitation observed by 117 meteorological stations in Yunnan in 1961-2015 and simulated by the global climate model in 2016-2055, the temporal-spatial changing characteristics of T_(spv) in various regions of Yunnan were calculated and analyzed by the Thornthwaite Memorial model, and T_(spv)-population carrying capacity and climate carrying capacity were constructed and calculated. The results showed that:(1) T_(spv) in Yunnan presented obvious zonal and vertical distribution. Overall, T_(spv) was higher in the south than that in the north, and higher in areas at low altitude than that in areas at high altitude. Precipitation is the main limiting factor of T_(spv) in Yunnan.(2)In 1961-2015, T_(spv) only significantly increased in partial areas of western Yunnan, significantly decreased in local areas of central Yunnan, and showed no obvious change in other areas. Average T_(spv) in Yunnan presented large inter-annual fluctuations and a significant change around 2009.(3)In 2006-2015, per capita grain supply in Yunnan grew steadily, approaching or exceeding the demand of well-off grain. Cultivated land-population carrying capacity increased year by year, but was far lower than T_(spv)-population carrying capacity. Although during year with a sharp yield reduction, T_(spv)-population carrying capacity could still meet the demand of affluent grain under current population and cultivated land scale, with a surplus human-grain relationship.(4)With current stable amplitude of population, cultivated land and productivity, T_(spv) and T_(spv)-population carrying capacity in Yunnan will increase stably, and human-grain relationship will mainly be grain surplus under different emissions in the future. The carrying capacity and human-grain relationship under high emission will be superior to low emission.
In order to analyze and compare population carrying capacity and human-grain relationship based on food supply and climatic potential productivity(T_(spv)) in Yunnan, population carrying capacity and human-grain relationship under future climate change were predicted. In this study, using average temperature and annual precipitation observed by 117 meteorological stations in Yunnan in 1961-2015 and simulated by the global climate model in 2016-2055, the temporal-spatial changing characteristics of T_(spv) in various regions of Yunnan were calculated and analyzed by the Thornthwaite Memorial model, and T_(spv)-population carrying capacity and climate carrying capacity were constructed and calculated. The results showed that:(1) T_(spv) in Yunnan presented obvious zonal and vertical distribution. Overall, T_(spv) was higher in the south than that in the north, and higher in areas at low altitude than that in areas at high altitude. Precipitation is the main limiting factor of T_(spv) in Yunnan.(2)In 1961-2015, T_(spv) only significantly increased in partial areas of western Yunnan, significantly decreased in local areas of central Yunnan, and showed no obvious change in other areas. Average T_(spv) in Yunnan presented large inter-annual fluctuations and a significant change around 2009.(3)In 2006-2015, per capita grain supply in Yunnan grew steadily, approaching or exceeding the demand of well-off grain. Cultivated land-population carrying capacity increased year by year, but was far lower than T_(spv)-population carrying capacity. Although during year with a sharp yield reduction, T_(spv)-population carrying capacity could still meet the demand of affluent grain under current population and cultivated land scale, with a surplus human-grain relationship.(4)With current stable amplitude of population, cultivated land and productivity, T_(spv) and T_(spv)-population carrying capacity in Yunnan will increase stably, and human-grain relationship will mainly be grain surplus under different emissions in the future. The carrying capacity and human-grain relationship under high emission will be superior to low emission.
引文
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[14]刘新,刘林春,尤莉,等.内蒙古地区气候生产潜力变化及其敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2018,39(8):531-537.Liu X,Liu L C,You L,et al.Characteristics and sensitivity analysis of climate production potential in Inner Mongolia[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2018,39(8):531-537.(in Chinese)
[15]白美兰,郝润全,高建国,等.内蒙古地区气候资源生产潜力及其人口承载力分析评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(6):253-257.Bai M L,Hao R Q,Gao J G,et al.Climatic resources potential productivity and its population capacity evaluation in Inner Mongolia[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2010,28(6):253-257.(in Chinese)
[16]杨重一,庞士力,孙彦坤.作物生产潜力研究现状与趋势[J].东北农业大学学报,2008,39(7):140-144.Yang Z Y,Pang S L,Sun Y K.Current status and trend of crop potential productivity[J].Journal of Northeast Agricultural University,2008,39(7):140-144.(in Chinese)
[17]武永利,卢淑贤,王云峰,等.近45年山西省气候生产潜力时空变化特征分析[J].生态环境学报,2009,18(2):567-571.Wu Y L,Lu S X,Wang Y F,et al.Spatial-temporal changing characteristics of the evapotranspiration climate potential productivity in Shanxi Province during last 45 years[J].Ecology and Environmental Science,2009,18(2):567-571.(in Chinese)
[18]侯西勇,岳燕珍,于贵瑞,等.基于GIS的华北-辽南土地潜力区土地适宜性评价[J].资源科学,2007,29(4):201-207.(in Chinese)Hou X Y,Yue Y Z,Yu G R,et al.Evaluating the land resource suitability based on GIS:a case study in North China-South Liaoning region[J].Resources Science,2007,29(4):201-207.(in Chinese)
[19]封志明,杨艳昭,张晶.中国基于人粮关系的土地资源承载力研究:从分县到全国[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(5):865-875.Feng Z M,Yang Y Z,Zhang J.The land carrying of China based on man-grain relationship[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2008,23(5):865-875.(in Chinese)
[20]童彦,朱海燕,施玉.基于人粮关系的云南粮食产能安全动态分析[J].亚热带水土保持,2015,(1):19-22.Tong Y,Zhu H Y,Shi Y.Dynamic analysis of grain security based on human-grain relationship in Yunnan Province[J].Subtropical Soil and Water Conservaton,2015(1):19-22.(in Chinese)
[21]《云南未来10~30年气候变化预估及其影响评估报告》编写委员会.云南未来10~30年气候变化预估及其影响评估报告[M].北京:气象出版社,2014Editorial Committee of the Climate Change Projection and Its Impact Assessment Report on Climate Change over Yunnan in the 10-30 Years.Climate change projection and its impact assessment report on climate change over Yunnan in the 10-30 years[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2014.(in Chinese)
[2]姚愚,李晓鹏,闫丽萍,等.近44年云南年平均气温的时空变化特征[J].气象,2006,32(10):81-87.Yao Y,Li X P,Yan L P,et al.Spatial-temporal variation of annual mean temperature in Yunnan province for last 44year[J].Meteorological Monthly,2006,32(10):81-87.(in Chinese)
[3]高鹭,张宏业.生态承载力的国内外研究进展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007,17(2):19-26.Gao L,Zhang H Y.Progress in research of ecological carrying capacity[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2007,17(2):19-26.(in Chinese)
[4]童玉芬.人口承载力研究的演进、问题与展望[J].人口研究,2012,36(5):28-36.Tong Y F.Research on population carrying capacity:evolution,problems and prospect[J].Population Research,2012,36(5):28-36.(in Chinese)
[5]叶文,王会肖,许新宜,等.资源环境承载力定量分析:以秦巴山水源涵养区为例[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(8):1061-1072.Ye W,Wang H X,Xu X Y,et al.Quantitative analysis of resource and environment carrying capacity for water conservation area in Qin-Ba Mountains[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2015,23(8):1061-1072.(in Chinese)
[6]杨馨越,魏朝富,倪九派.三峡生态屏障区耕地承载力与人口生态转移[J].中国生态农业学报,2012,20(11):1554-1562.Yang X Y,Wei C F,Ni J P.Cultivated land carrying capacity and population migration in ecological barrier zone of the Three Gorges reservoir[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2012,20(11):1554-1562.(in Chinese)
[7]哈斯巴根,李百岁,宝音,等.区域土地资源人口承载力理论模型及实证研究[J].地理科学,2008,28(2):189-194.Hasbagen,Li B S,Bao Y,et al.Theoretical model and empirical researches of regional land carrying capacity[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2008,28(2):189-194.(in Chinese)
[8]李艳春.宁夏干旱区气候承载力分布特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(8):96-99.Li Y C.Climate capacity distribution characteristics in Ningxia arid area[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2010,24(8):96-99.(in Chinese)
[9]李蒙,朱勇,黄玮.气候变化对云南气候生产潜力的影响[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(3):442-446.Li M,Zhu Y,Huang W.Influence of climate change on climate potential productivity in Yunnan[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(3):442-446.(in Chinese)
[10]张艺萌,张雪松,郭婷婷等.辽西北地区气温和降水变化对气候生产潜力的影响[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(2):203-211.Zhang Y M,Zhang X S,Guo T T,et al.Characteristics of temperature and precipitation change and the influence on climate productive potential in the North Western Liaoning[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(2):203-211.(in Chinese)
[11]张旭晖,霍金兰,谢小萍.极端降水对淮河流域气候生产潜力的影响分析[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(S):130-134.Zhang X H,Huo J L,Xie X P.Impacts of extreme precipitation events on climate potential productivity in Huaihe River Basin[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011,32(S):130-134.(in Chinese)
[12]高浩,潘学标,符瑜.气候变化对内蒙古中部草原气候生产潜力的影响[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(3):277-282.Gao H,Pan X B,Fu Y,et al.Influence of climate change on potential climate productivity in grassland of central Inner Mongolia[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2009,30(3):277-282.(in Chinese)
[13]康西言,马辉杰.河北省气候生产潜力的估算与区划[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(1):37-41.Kang X Y,Ma H J.Evaluation and classification of climate productive potential in Hebei Province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2008,29(1):37-41.(in Chinese)
[14]刘新,刘林春,尤莉,等.内蒙古地区气候生产潜力变化及其敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2018,39(8):531-537.Liu X,Liu L C,You L,et al.Characteristics and sensitivity analysis of climate production potential in Inner Mongolia[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2018,39(8):531-537.(in Chinese)
[15]白美兰,郝润全,高建国,等.内蒙古地区气候资源生产潜力及其人口承载力分析评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(6):253-257.Bai M L,Hao R Q,Gao J G,et al.Climatic resources potential productivity and its population capacity evaluation in Inner Mongolia[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2010,28(6):253-257.(in Chinese)
[16]杨重一,庞士力,孙彦坤.作物生产潜力研究现状与趋势[J].东北农业大学学报,2008,39(7):140-144.Yang Z Y,Pang S L,Sun Y K.Current status and trend of crop potential productivity[J].Journal of Northeast Agricultural University,2008,39(7):140-144.(in Chinese)
[17]武永利,卢淑贤,王云峰,等.近45年山西省气候生产潜力时空变化特征分析[J].生态环境学报,2009,18(2):567-571.Wu Y L,Lu S X,Wang Y F,et al.Spatial-temporal changing characteristics of the evapotranspiration climate potential productivity in Shanxi Province during last 45 years[J].Ecology and Environmental Science,2009,18(2):567-571.(in Chinese)
[18]侯西勇,岳燕珍,于贵瑞,等.基于GIS的华北-辽南土地潜力区土地适宜性评价[J].资源科学,2007,29(4):201-207.(in Chinese)Hou X Y,Yue Y Z,Yu G R,et al.Evaluating the land resource suitability based on GIS:a case study in North China-South Liaoning region[J].Resources Science,2007,29(4):201-207.(in Chinese)
[19]封志明,杨艳昭,张晶.中国基于人粮关系的土地资源承载力研究:从分县到全国[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(5):865-875.Feng Z M,Yang Y Z,Zhang J.The land carrying of China based on man-grain relationship[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2008,23(5):865-875.(in Chinese)
[20]童彦,朱海燕,施玉.基于人粮关系的云南粮食产能安全动态分析[J].亚热带水土保持,2015,(1):19-22.Tong Y,Zhu H Y,Shi Y.Dynamic analysis of grain security based on human-grain relationship in Yunnan Province[J].Subtropical Soil and Water Conservaton,2015(1):19-22.(in Chinese)
[21]《云南未来10~30年气候变化预估及其影响评估报告》编写委员会.云南未来10~30年气候变化预估及其影响评估报告[M].北京:气象出版社,2014Editorial Committee of the Climate Change Projection and Its Impact Assessment Report on Climate Change over Yunnan in the 10-30 Years.Climate change projection and its impact assessment report on climate change over Yunnan in the 10-30 years[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2014.(in Chinese)