民航飞机低空颠簸与地理环境因子相关性研究
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摘要
基于飞行品质监控大数据,对各机场区域低空颠簸频率进行统计。利用地形及气象观测数据,研究低空颠簸与环境因子的相关性。结果表明,飞机低空颠簸与地形起伏度、气温日较差以及风速有显著相关性。利用地理加权回归(GWR)模型进行拟合分析,发现上述环境因子的影响强度存在空间差异。地形起伏度与风速的影响强度均自东北向西南逐渐增大,气温日较差的影响强度自东南向西北再向东北逐渐增大。地理加权回归模型的调整R2达到0.512,说明模型的有效性很好。基于拟合模型对全国范围低空颠簸风险进行估计,获得颠簸风险分级空间分布图。研究结果对机场选址和飞行安全管理具有参考价值。
Based on the flight quality monitoring big data, statistics were made on the frequency of low-altitude airplane turbulence in various airport areas. Besides, using topographic and meteorological data, we analyzed the correlation between low-altitude airplane turbulence and environmental factors. The results indicate a significant correlation between the low-altitude airplane turbulence and relief amplitude, wind speed, and diurnal temperature range. Also, the spatial difference of the effect intensity of these environmental factors is revealed via geographically weighted regression(GWR) model. The effect intensity of relief amplitude and wind speed increase from northeast to southwest, while the effect intensity of diurnal temperature range increases from southeast to northwest then to northeast. The adjusted R2 of the model is 0.512, which means that the model is very effective.Based on the GWR model, we estimated the risk of low-altitude airplane turbulence on the national scale, and obtained the classification map of the risk. The research results have reference value for airport location and flight safety management.
Based on the flight quality monitoring big data, statistics were made on the frequency of low-altitude airplane turbulence in various airport areas. Besides, using topographic and meteorological data, we analyzed the correlation between low-altitude airplane turbulence and environmental factors. The results indicate a significant correlation between the low-altitude airplane turbulence and relief amplitude, wind speed, and diurnal temperature range. Also, the spatial difference of the effect intensity of these environmental factors is revealed via geographically weighted regression(GWR) model. The effect intensity of relief amplitude and wind speed increase from northeast to southwest, while the effect intensity of diurnal temperature range increases from southeast to northwest then to northeast. The adjusted R2 of the model is 0.512, which means that the model is very effective.Based on the GWR model, we estimated the risk of low-altitude airplane turbulence on the national scale, and obtained the classification map of the risk. The research results have reference value for airport location and flight safety management.
引文
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[15]吴炎成,周林,刘科峰,等.基于AMDAR资料应用于中国周边海域飞机低空颠簸的统计分析.气象科学,2014,34(1):17?24
[16]申燕玲,王东海,巩远发.中国冬季飞机颠簸的统计分析.成都信息工程学院学报,2017,32(4):426?432
[17]王淑翠.飞机颠簸产生的可能机制及其在天气预测上的应用[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2013
[18]Mitchell K,Sholy B,Stolzer A J.General aviation aircraft flight operations quality assurance:overcoming the obstacles.IEEE Aerospace&Electronic Systems Magazine,2007,22(6):9?15
[19]辜运燕.我国西部干线飞机颠簸分布规律分析[D].广汉:中国民用航空飞行学院,2009
[20]Fotheringham A S,Brunsdon C,Charlton M.Geographically weighted regression:the analysis of spatially varying relationships.West Sussex:John Wiley&Sons,2003
[2]Gultepe I,Starr D O.Dynamical structure and turbulence in cirrus clouds:aircraft observations during FIRE.Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1995,52(23):4159?4182
[3]李子良,陈会芝.飞机颠簸的气象条件分析.高原山地气象研究,1999,19(2):22?23
[4]邹波.地面加热对飞机颠簸影响的动力学初步分析.大气科学学报,2004,27(4):527?531
[5]李子良,黄仪方.地形影响的飞机颠簸及其数值仿真实验.气象,2006,32(11):32?35
[6]Guest F M,Reeder M J,Marks C J,et al.Inertial gravity waves observed in the lower stratosphere over Macquarie Island.J Atmos Sci,2000,57:737?752
[7]Nappo C J.An introduction to atmospheric gravity waves.Amsterdam:Academic Press,2002
[8]Snyder C,Skamarock W C,Rotunno R.Frontal dynamics near and following frontal collapse.J Atmos Sci,1993,50:3194?3211
[9]朱志愚.高空急流区飞机颠簸的一种形成机制的探讨.成都气象学院学报,1997,12(4):298?302
[10]Moraes O L L,Acevedo O C,Degrazia G A,et al.Surface layer turbulence parameters over a complex terrain.Atmospheric Environment,2005,39(17):3103?3112
[11]Keller J.Performance of a quantitative jet stream turbulence forecasting technique-the specific CATrisk(SCATR)index//22nd Aerospace Sciences Meeting.Reno,1984:271?277
[12]Dutton J A,Panofsky H A.Clear air turbulence:a mystery may be unfolding.American Association for the Advancement of Science,1970,167:937?944
[13]Oard M J.Application of a diagnostic richardson number tendency to a case study of clear air turbulence.Journal of Applied Meteorology,2010,13(7):771?777
[14]黄仪方,孙智博,肖焕权.我国高原重要航线飞机颠簸分布规律分析.中国民航飞行学院学报,2011,22(1):5?9
[15]吴炎成,周林,刘科峰,等.基于AMDAR资料应用于中国周边海域飞机低空颠簸的统计分析.气象科学,2014,34(1):17?24
[16]申燕玲,王东海,巩远发.中国冬季飞机颠簸的统计分析.成都信息工程学院学报,2017,32(4):426?432
[17]王淑翠.飞机颠簸产生的可能机制及其在天气预测上的应用[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2013
[18]Mitchell K,Sholy B,Stolzer A J.General aviation aircraft flight operations quality assurance:overcoming the obstacles.IEEE Aerospace&Electronic Systems Magazine,2007,22(6):9?15
[19]辜运燕.我国西部干线飞机颠簸分布规律分析[D].广汉:中国民用航空飞行学院,2009
[20]Fotheringham A S,Brunsdon C,Charlton M.Geographically weighted regression:the analysis of spatially varying relationships.West Sussex:John Wiley&Sons,2003