消费增速放缓与消费不平等的福利权衡——基于地区层面城乡居民消费数据的经验研究
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摘要
根据1993—2016年中国地区层面城乡居民消费数据,测度并比较了消费增速放缓与消费不平等的福利效应。研究发现:第一,无论城镇地区还是农村地区,消费增速放缓与消费不平等均具有显著的福利效应。第二,消费增速放缓与消费不平等的福利效应不仅有显著的城乡差异性和地区差异性,而且在地区内部同样存在差异性。第三,在特定的参数区间,消费不平等的福利效应有可能超过消费增速放缓的福利效应。消费者甚至愿意牺牲所有的消费增长来消除消费不平等。消费风险越大,消费者的风险规避意愿和不平等厌恶心理越强,这种相对重要性就越突出。因此,在制定和实施经济政策时,应适当兼顾增长与平等目标,不能顾此失彼。
Based on the data of China regional urban and rural residents consumption from 1993 to 2016,the potential welfare effects of consumption growth slowdown and consumption inequality is measured and compared here.It finds that:firstly,consumption growth slowdown and consumption inequality have significant welfare effects,whether urban or rural areas.Secondly,the welfare effects of consumption growth slowdown and consumption inequality not only have significant urban-rural and regional differences,but also exists differences in the same regions.Thirdly,within a reasonable parameter range,the welfare effect of consumption inequality is likely to exceed that of consumption growth slowdown.Consumers even willing to sacrifice all the consumption growth to eliminate consumption inequality.The greater the consumption risk,the stronger the risk aversion willingness and inequality aversion psychology of consumers,and the more prominent this relative importance will be.Therefore,in formulating and implementing economic policies,the balance of growth and equality both should be taken seriously.
Based on the data of China regional urban and rural residents consumption from 1993 to 2016,the potential welfare effects of consumption growth slowdown and consumption inequality is measured and compared here.It finds that:firstly,consumption growth slowdown and consumption inequality have significant welfare effects,whether urban or rural areas.Secondly,the welfare effects of consumption growth slowdown and consumption inequality not only have significant urban-rural and regional differences,but also exists differences in the same regions.Thirdly,within a reasonable parameter range,the welfare effect of consumption inequality is likely to exceed that of consumption growth slowdown.Consumers even willing to sacrifice all the consumption growth to eliminate consumption inequality.The greater the consumption risk,the stronger the risk aversion willingness and inequality aversion psychology of consumers,and the more prominent this relative importance will be.Therefore,in formulating and implementing economic policies,the balance of growth and equality both should be taken seriously.
引文
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[30] Lucas R E.Model of Business Cycles[M].New York:Basil Blackwell,1987:79-109.
[2] 赵秋运,马晶.重工业偏向型发展战略影响收入不平等的传导机制[J].暨南学报:哲学社会科学版,2018(6).
[3] 孙豪,胡志军,陈建东.中国消费基尼系数估算及社会福利分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(12).
[4] 殷剑峰,王增武.分配差距扩大、信用扩张和金融危机——关于美国次贷危机的理论思考[J].经济研究,2018(2).
[5] 方福前.中国居民消费不足原因研究——基于中国城乡分省数据[J].中国社会科学,2009(2).
[6] 贺大兴.不平等,消费不足与内生经济周期[J].浙江社会科学,2015(6).
[7] 周广素,李沙浪.消费不平等会引发社会信任危机吗?[J].浙江社会科学,2016(7).
[8] 刘尚希.改革成效要以国民的“消费状态”来衡量[J].中国发展观察,2007(9).
[9] Lucas R E.The Industrial Revolution:Past and Future[R].The Region,Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis,2004.
[10] Córdoba J C,Verdier G.Inequality and Growth:Some Welfare Calculations [J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2008,32(6).
[11] 臧旭恒,张欣.中国家庭资产配置与异质性消费者行为分析[J].经济研究,2018(3).
[12] Blundell R,Preston I.Consumption Inequality and Income Uncertainty[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1998,113(2).
[13] Meyer B,Sullivan J.Consumption and Income Inequality in the U.S:1960-2008[R].NBER Working Paper,2009.
[14] 邱东.探索经济福利测度的可行性和必要性[J].统计与信息论坛,2018(7).
[15] Culter D M,Katz L F.Rising Inequality?Changes in the Distribution of Income and Consumption in the 1980’s[J].The American Economic Review,1992,82(2).
[16] Meyer B,Sullivan J.Further Results on Measuring the Well-being of the Poor Using Income and Consumption[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2011,44(1).
[17] Jappelli T,Pistaferri L.Does Consumption Inequality Track Income Inequality in Italy?[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2010,13(1).
[18] Attanasio O,Hurst E,Pistaferri L.The Evolution of Income,Consumption and Leisure Inequality in the US:1980—2010[R].NBER Working Paper,2012.
[19] Aguiar M,Bils M.Has Consumption Inequality Mirrored Income Inequality?[J].American Economic Review,2015,105(9).
[20] Deaton A,Paxson C.Intertemporal Choice and Inequality [J].Journal of Political Economy,1994,102(3).
[21] Krueger D,Perri K.Does Income Inequality Lead to Consumption Inequality?Evidence and Theory[J].The Review of Economic Studies,2006,73(1).
[22] 曲兆鹏,赵忠.老龄化对我国农村消费和收入不平等的影响[J].经济研究,2008(12).
[23] 邹红,李奥蕾,喻开志.消费不平等的度量、出生组分解和形成机制——兼与收入不平等比较[J].经济学(季刊),2013(4).
[24] Cai F,Chen Y Y,Zhou L A.Income and Consumption Inequality in Urban China[J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,2010,58(3).
[25] 赵达,谭之博,张军.中国城镇地区消费不平等演变趋势[J].财贸经济,2017(6).
[26] 孟好.我国城乡居民消费行为差异研究[J].统计研究,2016(9).
[27] 董志勇,朱晓明.递归偏好、情绪波动与降低经济增长的福利成本分析[J].经济科学,2007(3).
[28] 赵鑫铖,史红亮.中国经济增长与经济平等[J].云南财经大学学报,2012(5).
[29] 陈彦斌.中国经济增长与经济稳定:何者更重要[J].管理世界,2005(7).
[30] Lucas R E.Model of Business Cycles[M].New York:Basil Blackwell,1987:79-109.