金融危机前后全球产业贸易转移定量测度分析
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摘要
2008年全球金融危机以来,全球产业贸易转移格局已经悄然发生变化。文章在严谨界定产业贸易转移概念的前提下,运用区域间投入产出技术系统构建了产业贸易转移的定量测度模型,进而对全球金融危机前后主要国家和地区间产业贸易转移格局变化进行了定量研究。主要发现有:(1)中国虽然仍是全球最大的产业净转入国,但制造业向中国转移的规模大幅减缓。(2)欧盟、美国、印度等地区或国家逐渐成为全球主要产业贸易转移目的地,且以服务业为主。(3)采掘业开始向美国、欧盟等发达地区转移。
Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the spatial pattern of the world industrial trade had gradually changed.Based on the strict definition of the concept of industrial trade transfer, combining with the multi-regional input-output tables, this paper rebuilds the measurement model of industrial trade transfer, then conducts a quantitative study on the changes in the pattern of industrial trade transfer between major countries or regions before and after the global financial crisis. The results show that as follows: 1) Although China is still the world's largest net importer of the industry, the transfer scale of manufacturing to China has slowed down significantly. 2) The EU, the United States, India have gradually become the world's major industrial trade transfer destinations, which are dominated by service industry. 3) The extractive industry is transferring to developed regions such as the United States and the European Union.
Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the spatial pattern of the world industrial trade had gradually changed.Based on the strict definition of the concept of industrial trade transfer, combining with the multi-regional input-output tables, this paper rebuilds the measurement model of industrial trade transfer, then conducts a quantitative study on the changes in the pattern of industrial trade transfer between major countries or regions before and after the global financial crisis. The results show that as follows: 1) Although China is still the world's largest net importer of the industry, the transfer scale of manufacturing to China has slowed down significantly. 2) The EU, the United States, India have gradually become the world's major industrial trade transfer destinations, which are dominated by service industry. 3) The extractive industry is transferring to developed regions such as the United States and the European Union.
引文
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[2] Gamberoni E,Newfarmer R. Trade Protection:Incipient but Worrisome Trends[J/OL]. March 2,2009. http://www. voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3183.
[3]赵晓.全球第四次产业转移真的来了[N].华夏时报,2012-11-01(17).
[4] Belderbos R,Sleuwaegen L. Japanese Firms and the Decision to Invest Abroad:Business Groups and Regional Core Networks[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1996,78(2):214-220.
[5] Pennings E,Sleuwaeggen L. International relocation:firm and industry determinats[J]. Economics Letters,2000,67:179-186.
[6] Busse M. Trade,Environmental Regulations,and the World Trade Organization:New Empirical Evidence[J]. Social Sci‐ence Electronic Publishing,2004,30(2):87-91.
[7] Taylor M S,Copeland B R. Free Trade and Global Warming:a Trade Theory View of the Kyoto Protocol[J]. Journal of Envi‐ronmental Economics and Management,2005,49(2):205-234.
[8]张少军,刘志彪.全球价值链模式的产业转移——动力、影响与对中国产业升级和区域协调发展的启示[J].中国工业经济,2009(11):5-15.
[9]刘友金,胡黎明.产品内分工、价值链重组与产业转移——兼论产业转移过程中的大国战略[J].中国软科学,2011(3):149-159.
[10]程李梅,庄晋财,李楚,等.产业链空间演化与西部承接产业转移的“陷阱”突破[J].中国工业经济,2013(8):135-147.
[11]刘红光,刘卫东,刘志高.区域间产业转移定量测度研究——基于区域间投入产出表分析[J].中国工业经济,2011(6):79-88.
[12]靳卫东,王林杉,徐银良.区域产业转移的定量测度与政策适用性研究[J].中国软科学,2016(10):71-89.
[13]豆建民,沈艳兵.产业转移对中国中部地区的环境影响研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(11):96-102.
[14]肖雁飞,万子捷,刘红光.我国区域产业转移中“碳排放转移”及“碳泄漏”实证研究——基于2002年、2007年区域间投入产出模型的分析[J].财经研究,2014,40(2):75-84.
[15]杨亚平,周泳宏.成本上升、产业转移与结构升级——基于全国大中城市的实证研究[J].中国工业经济,2013(7):147-159.
[16]覃成林,熊雪如.我国制造业产业转移动态演变及特征分析——基于相对净流量指标的测度[J].产业经济研究,2013(1):12-21.
[17]刘红光,李浩华,王云平.中国产业跨区域转移的总体特征与趋势[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(5):1-5.
[18]高菠阳,李俊玮,刘红光.中国电子信息产业转移特征及驱动因素——基于区域间投入产出表分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(10):103-109.
[19]陈建军.中国现阶段产业区域转移的实证研究——结合浙江105家企业的问卷调查报告的分析[J].管理世界,2002(6):64-74.
[20]魏后凯.产业转移的发展趋势及其对竞争力的影响[J].福建论坛:经济社会版,2003(4):11-15.
[21]简新华.产业经济学[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2002.
[22] Timmer M P,Dietzenbacher E,Los B,et al. An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input-Output Database:the Case of Global Automotive Production[J]. Review of International Economics,2015,23:575-605.