基于灰色系统的澳洲鲐太平洋群系资源量预测模型
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摘要
利用1995—2014年日本中央水产研究所提供的澳洲鲐(Scomber australasicus)太平洋群系资源量与渔获量数据,结合索饵场和产卵场的海表面温度以及黑潮指标等,建立6种基于灰色系统的澳洲鲐资源量预测模型。建立的模型包括不考虑任何环境因子的GM(1,1)模型,分别基于索饵场(140°E～160°E,35°N～50°N)海表面温度SST1、产卵场1 (130°E～132°E,30°N～32°N)海表面温度SST2、产卵场2 (138°E～141°E,34°N～35°N)海表面温度SST3和黑潮潮位差TR的GM(1,2)模型,以及综合以上4个因子的GM(1,5)模型,6种模型的平均误差分别为6. 72%,3. 73%,4. 41%,4. 78%,29. 56%,19. 38%。研究结果表明,基于索饵场、产卵场海表面温度因子建立的灰色预测模型,对澳洲鲐太平洋群系资源量预报精度较高,可应用于后续渔业生产中。对GM(1,5)模型的灰色参数值a、b分析可知,所有因子中SST2和SST3对模型的制约影响最高,即对资源量的影响最大。产卵场温度与资源量具有较高的相关性,结合最适温度,可推测在该适宜温度范围内资源量随着产卵场温度的升高而增加。可见,全球气候变暖海水温度升高,可能对澳洲鲐资源波动存在积极影响。
GM( 1,n) is established by the Spotted mackerel( Scomber australasicus) resources of the Pacific group which is supplied by Japan's central fisheries research institute from 1995 to 2012,combined with the sea surface temperature( SST) of spawning and feeding ground and tidal range. There are six models: GM( 1,1) without environmental factor; four GM( 1,2) models established by the SSTs of the feeding ground( 140°E-160° E,35° N-50° N,SST1),spawning ground 1( 130° E-132° E,30° N-32° N,SST2),spawning ground 2( 138°E-141°E,34°N-35°N,SST3) and tidal range of Kuroshio; GM( 1,5) established by all the factors. The average error of each model is 6. 72%,3. 73%,4. 41%,4. 78%,29. 56% and 19. 38% respectively. The results show that the GM models based on feeding and spawning grounds temperature have a high accuracy in the spotted mackerel resource forecast,and can be used into more researches. By analyzing the gray parameters a and b,it is concluded that the SST2 and SST3 are the most restrictive to the model,which means the fluctuation of those factors had the greatest effect on the amount,and the temperature of spawning ground has a high correlation with the resources. When compared with the optimum temperature,it is presumed that the mackerel resources in the appropriate temperature range can increase with the temperature of the spawning ground. The global warming and gradual increase of SST are likely to have a positive effect on the spotted mackerel stock.
GM( 1,n) is established by the Spotted mackerel( Scomber australasicus) resources of the Pacific group which is supplied by Japan's central fisheries research institute from 1995 to 2012,combined with the sea surface temperature( SST) of spawning and feeding ground and tidal range. There are six models: GM( 1,1) without environmental factor; four GM( 1,2) models established by the SSTs of the feeding ground( 140°E-160° E,35° N-50° N,SST1),spawning ground 1( 130° E-132° E,30° N-32° N,SST2),spawning ground 2( 138°E-141°E,34°N-35°N,SST3) and tidal range of Kuroshio; GM( 1,5) established by all the factors. The average error of each model is 6. 72%,3. 73%,4. 41%,4. 78%,29. 56% and 19. 38% respectively. The results show that the GM models based on feeding and spawning grounds temperature have a high accuracy in the spotted mackerel resource forecast,and can be used into more researches. By analyzing the gray parameters a and b,it is concluded that the SST2 and SST3 are the most restrictive to the model,which means the fluctuation of those factors had the greatest effect on the amount,and the temperature of spawning ground has a high correlation with the resources. When compared with the optimum temperature,it is presumed that the mackerel resources in the appropriate temperature range can increase with the temperature of the spawning ground. The global warming and gradual increase of SST are likely to have a positive effect on the spotted mackerel stock.
引文
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[14]李曰嵩,潘灵芝,严利平,等.基于个体模型的东海鲐鱼渔场形成机制研究[J].海洋学报,2014,36(6):67-74.LI Y S,PAN L Z,YAN L P,et al.Individual-based model study on the fishing ground of chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus)in the East China Sea[J]Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2014,36(6):67-74.
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[18]唐启义.DPS数据处理系统[M]北京:科学出版社,2017:1422-1436.TANG Q Y.DPS data processing system[M].Beijing:Science Press,2017:1422-1436.
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[20]李纲,陈新军.东海鲐鱼资源和渔场时空分布特征的研究[J].中国海洋大学学报,2007,37(6):921-926.LI G,CHEN X J.Tempo-spatial characteristic analysis of the mackerel resource and its fishing ground in the East China Sea[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2007,37(6):921-926.
[21]李纲,陈新军,官文江,等.东黄海鲐鱼资源评估与管理决策研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2011:15-23.LI G,CHEN X J,GUAN W J,et al.Fish resource assessment and management decision research in east yellow sea[M].Beijing:Science Press,2011:15-23.
[22]缪圣赐.2005年韩国9鱼种的总容许渔获量(TAG)为215,983t同比减少1%[J].现代渔业信息,2005,20(3):34-34.MIAO S C.In 2005,the total allowable fishing allowance(TAG)of 9 fish species in South Korea was 215 983 t,1percent less than the previous year[J].Journal of Modern Fisheries Information,2005,20(3):34-34.
[23]肖新平,毛树华.灰预测与决策方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2013:183-277.XIAO X P,MAO S H.Grey prediction and decision making method[M].Beijing:Science Press,2013:183-277.
[24]YUKAMI R,OHAHIMO S,YODA M,et al.Estimation of the spawning grounds of chub mackerel Scomber japonicus,and spotted mackerel Scomber australasicus,in the East China Sea based on catch statistics and biometric data[J].Fisheries Science,2009,75(1):167-174.
[25]凌建忠,李圣法,严利平.东海区主要渔业资源利用状况的分析[J].海洋渔业,2006,28(2):111-116.LING J Z,LI S F,YAN L P.Analysis on the utilization of main fishery resources in the East China Sea[J].Marine Fisheries,2006,28(2):111-116.
[26]郑元甲,陈雪忠,程家骅,等.东海大陆架生物资源与环境[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,2003.ZHENG Y J,CHEN X Z,CHENG J H,et al.Biological resources and environment on the east China sea shelf[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Scientific and Technical Publishers,2003.
[27]王云龙,沈新强,李纯厚,等.中国大陆架及邻近海域浮游生物[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,2005:133-142.WANG Y L,SHEN X Q,LI C H,et al.The plankton in Chinese continental shelf and the adjacent waters[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Scientific and Technical Publishers,2005:133-142.
[28]李建生,严利平,程家骅.2006年夏秋季东海群系澳洲鲐数量分布特征[J].海洋渔业,2008,30(1):49-55.LI J S,YAN L P,CHENG J H.On the quantitative distribution characteristics of Scomber australasicus colony in the East China Sea during summer and autumn 2006[J].Marine Fisheries,2008,30(1):49-55.
[29]李建生,严利平,胡芬.夏秋季东海中部和南部海域澳洲鲐渔汛和渔场的年际变化[J].中国水产科学,2011,18(1):178-184.LI J S,YAN L P,HU F.Annual change of spotted mackerel Scomber australasicus fishing sea-son and fishing grounds in central and southern East China Sea in summer and autumn[J].Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2011,18(1):178-184.
[30]陈新军.渔业资源与渔场学[M].北京:海洋出版社,2007:149-153.CHEN X J.Fishery resources and fisheries[M].Beijing:China Ocean Press,2007:149-153.
[31]KONDO K.Growth of Japanese Mackerel-Ⅱ.Age determination with use of scales[J].Bulletin of Tohoku Regional Fisheries Research Laboratory,1966,47:31-53.
[32]LIZUKA K,Hamasaki S.Ecology of common mackerel(Scomber japonicas)in the southwestern Japan Sea and the East China Sea,1:Change of fishing grounds and catch fluctuation[J].Bulletin of the Seikai Regional Fisheries Research Laboratory,1983.
[2]李建生,严利平,胡芬.2004年夏季东海南部海域围网渔业生产动态[J].渔业信息与战略,2005,20(7):19-21.LI J S,YAN L P,HU F.Trend of purse seine production in the southern area of the East China Sea in summer in 2004[J].Modern Fisheries Information,2005,20(7):19-21.
[3]王凯,严利平,程家骅,等.东海鲐鱼资源合理利用的研究[J].海洋渔业,2007,29(4):337-343.WANG K,YAN L P,CHENG J H,et al.Study on the reasonable utilization of chub mackerel in the East China Sea[J].Marine Fisheries,2007,29(4):337-343.
[4]YUKAMI R,OHSHIMO S,YODA M,et al.Estimation of the spawning grounds of chub mackerel Scomber japonicus,and spotted mackerel Scomber australasicus,in the East China Sea based on catch statistics and biometric data[J].Fisheries Science,2009,75(1):167-174.
[5]NASHIDA K,HONDA H,SAKAJI H,et al.Migration of spotted mackerel Scomber australasicus estimated from a tagging experiment off Ashizuri cape and around the Izu Islands,central and Southern Pacific Coast of Japan[J].Bulletin of Fisheries Research Agency,2006.
[6]TAKASUKA A.Multi-species regime shifts reflected in spawning temperature optima of small pelagic fish in the western North Pacific[J].Marine Ecology Progress,2008,360(1):211-217.
[7]KEANE J P,NEIRA F J.Larval fish assemblages along the south-eastern Australian shelf:linking mesoscale non-depthdiscriminate structure and water masses[J].Fisheries Oceanography,2008,17(4):263-280.
[8]陈新军.灰色系统理论[M]北京:中国农业出版社,2003:26-128.CHEN X J.Grey System Theory[M].Beijing:China Agriculture Press,2003:26-128.
[9]白福臣.灰色GM(1,N)模型在广东海洋经济预测中的应用[J].技术经济与管理研究,2009(2):9-11.BAI F C.The Application of Gray GM(1,N)Model to Ocean Economic Forecast of Guangdong[J].Technoeconomics&Management Research,2009(2):9-11.
[10]陈新军,周应祺.中国海洋渔业人力资源结构的灰色分析及其预测[J].湛江海洋大学学报,2001,21(1):22-29.CHEN X J,ZHOU Y Q.Analysis and forecast of manpower resources in Chinese marine fisheries by using grey theory[J].Journal of Zhanjiang Ocean University,2001,21(1):22-29.
[11]周元建,关则良.海洋渔业产量的灰色预测与分析[J].湛江水产学院学报,1994(1):53-55.ZHOU Y J,GUAN Z L.Forecasting and analysing of poduction of marine fisheries[J].Journal of Guangdong Ocean University,1994(1):53-55.
[12]上龍嗣,渡邊千夏子,上村泰洋,等.平成27(2015)年度ゴマサバ太平洋系群の資源評価[R].日本:中央水産研究所,2015:16-20.RYUGAUJI,CHINAKO W,UEMURA Y,et al.Resource evaluation of spotted mackerel Pacific group in 2015[R].Japan:Central Fisheries Research Institute,2015:16-20.
[13]陈新军,曹杰,田思泉,等.表温和黑潮年间变化对西北太平洋柔鱼渔场分布的影响[J].大连海洋大学学报,2010,25(2):119-126.CHEN X J,CHAO J,TIAN S Q,et al.Effect of inter-annual change in sea surface water temperature and Kuroshio on fishing ground of squid Ommastrephes bartramiiin the Northwest Pacific[J]Journal of Dalian Ocean University,2010,25(2):119-126.
[14]李曰嵩,潘灵芝,严利平,等.基于个体模型的东海鲐鱼渔场形成机制研究[J].海洋学报,2014,36(6):67-74.LI Y S,PAN L Z,YAN L P,et al.Individual-based model study on the fishing ground of chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus)in the East China Sea[J]Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2014,36(6):67-74.
[15]沈建华,韩士鑫,樊伟,等.西北太平洋秋刀鱼资源及其渔场[J].海洋渔业,2004,26(1):61-65.SHAN J H,HAN S X,FAN W,et al.Saury resource and fishing grounds in the northwest pacific[J].Marine Fisheries,2004,26(1):61-65.
[16]杨修群,朱益民,谢倩,等.太平洋年代际振荡的研究进展[J].大气科学,2004,28(6):979-992.YANG X Q,ZHU Y M,X Q,et al.Advances in studies of pacific decadal oscillation[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2004,28(6):979-992.
[17]吕俊梅,琚建华,张庆云,等.太平洋海温场两种不同时间尺度气候模态的分析[J].海洋学报,2005,27(5):30-37.LV J M,JU J H,ZHANG Q Y,et al.The analysis of two climate patterns on different time scales in Pacific sea temperature fields[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2005,27(5):30-37.
[18]唐启义.DPS数据处理系统[M]北京:科学出版社,2017:1422-1436.TANG Q Y.DPS data processing system[M].Beijing:Science Press,2017:1422-1436.
[19]李纲.东、黄海鲐鱼资源评估及其管理策略风险分析[D].上海:上海海洋大学,2008.LI G.Assessment of mackerel fish resources in the East and Yellow sea and their management strategy risk analysis[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Ocean University,2008.
[20]李纲,陈新军.东海鲐鱼资源和渔场时空分布特征的研究[J].中国海洋大学学报,2007,37(6):921-926.LI G,CHEN X J.Tempo-spatial characteristic analysis of the mackerel resource and its fishing ground in the East China Sea[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2007,37(6):921-926.
[21]李纲,陈新军,官文江,等.东黄海鲐鱼资源评估与管理决策研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2011:15-23.LI G,CHEN X J,GUAN W J,et al.Fish resource assessment and management decision research in east yellow sea[M].Beijing:Science Press,2011:15-23.
[22]缪圣赐.2005年韩国9鱼种的总容许渔获量(TAG)为215,983t同比减少1%[J].现代渔业信息,2005,20(3):34-34.MIAO S C.In 2005,the total allowable fishing allowance(TAG)of 9 fish species in South Korea was 215 983 t,1percent less than the previous year[J].Journal of Modern Fisheries Information,2005,20(3):34-34.
[23]肖新平,毛树华.灰预测与决策方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2013:183-277.XIAO X P,MAO S H.Grey prediction and decision making method[M].Beijing:Science Press,2013:183-277.
[24]YUKAMI R,OHAHIMO S,YODA M,et al.Estimation of the spawning grounds of chub mackerel Scomber japonicus,and spotted mackerel Scomber australasicus,in the East China Sea based on catch statistics and biometric data[J].Fisheries Science,2009,75(1):167-174.
[25]凌建忠,李圣法,严利平.东海区主要渔业资源利用状况的分析[J].海洋渔业,2006,28(2):111-116.LING J Z,LI S F,YAN L P.Analysis on the utilization of main fishery resources in the East China Sea[J].Marine Fisheries,2006,28(2):111-116.
[26]郑元甲,陈雪忠,程家骅,等.东海大陆架生物资源与环境[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,2003.ZHENG Y J,CHEN X Z,CHENG J H,et al.Biological resources and environment on the east China sea shelf[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Scientific and Technical Publishers,2003.
[27]王云龙,沈新强,李纯厚,等.中国大陆架及邻近海域浮游生物[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,2005:133-142.WANG Y L,SHEN X Q,LI C H,et al.The plankton in Chinese continental shelf and the adjacent waters[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Scientific and Technical Publishers,2005:133-142.
[28]李建生,严利平,程家骅.2006年夏秋季东海群系澳洲鲐数量分布特征[J].海洋渔业,2008,30(1):49-55.LI J S,YAN L P,CHENG J H.On the quantitative distribution characteristics of Scomber australasicus colony in the East China Sea during summer and autumn 2006[J].Marine Fisheries,2008,30(1):49-55.
[29]李建生,严利平,胡芬.夏秋季东海中部和南部海域澳洲鲐渔汛和渔场的年际变化[J].中国水产科学,2011,18(1):178-184.LI J S,YAN L P,HU F.Annual change of spotted mackerel Scomber australasicus fishing sea-son and fishing grounds in central and southern East China Sea in summer and autumn[J].Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2011,18(1):178-184.
[30]陈新军.渔业资源与渔场学[M].北京:海洋出版社,2007:149-153.CHEN X J.Fishery resources and fisheries[M].Beijing:China Ocean Press,2007:149-153.
[31]KONDO K.Growth of Japanese Mackerel-Ⅱ.Age determination with use of scales[J].Bulletin of Tohoku Regional Fisheries Research Laboratory,1966,47:31-53.
[32]LIZUKA K,Hamasaki S.Ecology of common mackerel(Scomber japonicas)in the southwestern Japan Sea and the East China Sea,1:Change of fishing grounds and catch fluctuation[J].Bulletin of the Seikai Regional Fisheries Research Laboratory,1983.