基于不同频率分布的乐山市暴雨参数分析
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摘要
利用四川省乐山市气象站1981-2015年短历时暴雨雨量资料,采用年最大值法选样推求暴雨公式,分析皮尔逊-Ⅲ型分布曲线、耿贝尔分布曲线、指数分布曲线三种频率分布曲线模型与原始暴雨资料的适配性,并对不同频率分布的暴雨参数进行分析。结果表明三种频率分布曲线导出的暴雨公式在计算重现期为2-20年时,仅耿贝尔分布曲线符合精度要求。将新编的暴雨公式与现行暴雨公式、周边城市暴雨公式及《中国暴雨统计参数图集》进行了对比分析,新一代乐山市暴雨公式参数合理性得以验证,为乐山市排水系统的优化设计、排水管网建设与改造提供了新的理论参考。
Based on the data of short rainstorm rainfall from 1981 to 2015 in Leshan City,Sichuan Province,the annual maximum value method was used to calculate the rainstorm formula,and analyzed the three frequency distribution curves of Pearson-Ⅲ distribution curve,Gumbel distribution curve and exponential distribution curve to research on the adaptability of the three kinds of frequency distribution curve model and the original rainstorm data.The rainstorm parameters of different frequency distributions are also analyzed. The results show that the average absolute variance of the Gumbel distribution curve is less than 0. 05mm/min and the average relative variance is less than 5% when the calculated recurrence period is 2-20 a,which accords with the accuracy requirement. The new rainstorm formula and the current rainstorm formula,the surrounding city rainstorm formula and the "Chinese rainstorm statistics parameter Atlas"were compared,and the rationality of the new generation of Leshan city rainstorm formula parameters is validated. It provides a new theoretical reference for the optimal design of drainage system in Leshan City and the construction and reconstruction of drainage pipe network.
Based on the data of short rainstorm rainfall from 1981 to 2015 in Leshan City,Sichuan Province,the annual maximum value method was used to calculate the rainstorm formula,and analyzed the three frequency distribution curves of Pearson-Ⅲ distribution curve,Gumbel distribution curve and exponential distribution curve to research on the adaptability of the three kinds of frequency distribution curve model and the original rainstorm data.The rainstorm parameters of different frequency distributions are also analyzed. The results show that the average absolute variance of the Gumbel distribution curve is less than 0. 05mm/min and the average relative variance is less than 5% when the calculated recurrence period is 2-20 a,which accords with the accuracy requirement. The new rainstorm formula and the current rainstorm formula,the surrounding city rainstorm formula and the "Chinese rainstorm statistics parameter Atlas"were compared,and the rationality of the new generation of Leshan city rainstorm formula parameters is validated. It provides a new theoretical reference for the optimal design of drainage system in Leshan City and the construction and reconstruction of drainage pipe network.
引文
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[2]陈正洪,王海军,张小丽.深圳市新一代暴雨强度公式的研制[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(3):29-34.
[3]王睿,徐得潜.合肥市暴雨强度公式的推求研究[J].水文,2016,36(1):71-74.
[4]陈贝,高文良.引发四川盆地西南地区暴雨的高原涡特征分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2015,35(1):9-15.
[5]周玉文,翁窈瑶,张晓昕,等.应用年最大值法推求城市暴雨强度公式的研究[J].给水排水,2011,37(10):40-44.
[6]李兴凯,陈元芳.暴雨频率分布线型优选方法的研究[J].水文,2010,30(2):50-53
[7]GB50014-2006室外排水设计规范[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006.
[8]张子贤.用高斯-牛顿法确定暴雨公式参数[J].河海大学学报,1995,23(5):106-111.
[9]住房和城乡建设部,中国气象局.城市暴雨强度公式编制和设计暴雨雨型确定技术导则[Z].北京:住房和城乡建设部,中国气象局,2014.
[10]周长艳,岑思弦,李跃清,等.四川省近50年降水的变化特征及影响[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):619-630.