基于Copula函数的不同历时暴雨组合分析
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摘要
城市的管道排水系统和区域排涝系统两者设计历时及设计标准存在差异,会造成管道排水与河道排涝工程运行不衔接,基于沭阳县1981-2015年的降雨数据,经过拟合精度分析选取合适的边际分布函数,采用Copula函数建立年最大2 h短历时管道排水暴雨和其对应时段的最大1 d长历时区域排涝暴雨的联合分布概率模型,计算超过某一设计值的短历时暴雨与超过某一设计值的长历时暴雨的同现重现期,在短历时暴雨不超过某一设计值的条件下长历时暴雨超过某一设计值条件重现期,研究结果可为城区排水防涝系统的建设提供科学依据,保障城区排水防涝安全。
As the city ' s drainage system and the regional drainage system,both design and design standards for the duration of the difference,which would cause pipeline drainage and river drainage works does not converge. Based on the rainfall data from 1981 to 2015 in Shuyang County,the Copula function is used to establish a joint distribution probability model for the maximum 2-hour short-duration pipeline drainage storm and the maximum 1-day long-duration drainage of the corresponding time period,after a suitable marginal distribution function is selected through precision analysis. The coexisting recurrence period of short duration during heavy rain exceeding a certain design value and the long duration during heavy rain exceeding a design value calculated. At present,the results can provide a scientific basis for the construction of urban drainage and waterlogging prevention system,and ensure the safety of urban drainage and waterlogging prevention.
As the city ' s drainage system and the regional drainage system,both design and design standards for the duration of the difference,which would cause pipeline drainage and river drainage works does not converge. Based on the rainfall data from 1981 to 2015 in Shuyang County,the Copula function is used to establish a joint distribution probability model for the maximum 2-hour short-duration pipeline drainage storm and the maximum 1-day long-duration drainage of the corresponding time period,after a suitable marginal distribution function is selected through precision analysis. The coexisting recurrence period of short duration during heavy rain exceeding a certain design value and the long duration during heavy rain exceeding a design value calculated. At present,the results can provide a scientific basis for the construction of urban drainage and waterlogging prevention system,and ensure the safety of urban drainage and waterlogging prevention.
引文
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[10]谢华,罗强,黄介生.基于三维copula函数的多水文区丰枯遭遇分析[J].水科学进展,2012,(2):186-193.
[11]陆桂华,张亚洲,肖恒,等.气候变化背景下蚌埠市暴雨与淮河上游洪水遭遇概率分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,(1):31-37.
[2]黄建文.南昌市管道排水与河道排涝设计标准衔接研究[D].南昌:南昌大学,2012.
[3]车伍,杨正,赵杨,等.城市排水(雨水)防涝综合规划编制若干问题探讨[J].中国给水排水,2014,(16):6-11.
[4]Zhang L,Singh V P.Bivariate flood frequency analysis using the copula method[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2006,11(2):150-164.
[5]郭生练,闫宝伟,肖义,等.Copula函数在多变量水文分析计算中的应用及研究进展[J].水文,2008,(3):1-7.
[6]宋松柏,蔡焕杰,金菊良,等.Copula函数及其在水文中的应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2012:87-89.
[7]刘曾美,陈子.区间暴雨和外江洪水位遭遇组合的风险[J].水科学进展,2009,(5):619-625.
[8]张娜,郭生练,肖义,等.基于联合分布的设计暴雨方法[J].水力发电,2008,(1):18-21.
[9]陈子燊,刘曾美.不同历时设计暴雨组合的风险率分析[J].水文,2011,(4):12-17.
[10]谢华,罗强,黄介生.基于三维copula函数的多水文区丰枯遭遇分析[J].水科学进展,2012,(2):186-193.
[11]陆桂华,张亚洲,肖恒,等.气候变化背景下蚌埠市暴雨与淮河上游洪水遭遇概率分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,(1):31-37.