基于Copula函数的设计暴雨雨型研究
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摘要
城市原有排水防涝系统设计标准偏低会导致洪涝灾害频率升高。设计暴雨雨型是制定排水防涝系统设计标准的重要依据和前提,对城市建设和洪涝治理至关重要。采用同频率法、SCS法、暴雨衰减指数法和概率密度函数(PDF)法对宿迁市设计暴雨雨型进行研究,基于Copula函数的风险联合概率模型对4种雨型结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明:同频率法和暴雨衰减指数法的设计雨型相似,风险率相近;SCS法的雨峰偏大,风险率较小,但其最大6 h时段的降雨不集中;PDF法的雨峰与同频率法一样,但其最大3和6 h雨量较为集中,风险率最小。本次的研究方法和结果可以对设计雨型的方法和对比提供新思路和参考。
Low design standards of urban original drainage waterlogging system would increase the frequency of flood disasters. Design storm pattern is an essential basis and prerequisite for formulating the design standards of drainage waterlogging prevention system and has large impact on urban construction and flood management. The same frequency method,SCS method,rainstorm attenuation index method and probability density function( PDF) method have been used to obtain the design storm pattern of Suqian city. Based on the risk joint probability of Copula function,results of the four rain types have been analyzed. Results show that the same frequency method and rainstorm attenuation index method have the similar pattern and risk probability. The rain peak of SCS method is large and the risk probability is small,but the rainfall is less concentrated in the maximum 6 h period. Moreover,the PDF method has the similar rain peak with the same frequency method,while the maximum 3 h and 6 h rainfalls are relatively more concentrative,and the risk probability is the smallest. Results of this research could provide new ideas and references for the development and comparison of rain storm patterns.
Low design standards of urban original drainage waterlogging system would increase the frequency of flood disasters. Design storm pattern is an essential basis and prerequisite for formulating the design standards of drainage waterlogging prevention system and has large impact on urban construction and flood management. The same frequency method,SCS method,rainstorm attenuation index method and probability density function( PDF) method have been used to obtain the design storm pattern of Suqian city. Based on the risk joint probability of Copula function,results of the four rain types have been analyzed. Results show that the same frequency method and rainstorm attenuation index method have the similar pattern and risk probability. The rain peak of SCS method is large and the risk probability is small,but the rainfall is less concentrated in the maximum 6 h period. Moreover,the PDF method has the similar rain peak with the same frequency method,while the maximum 3 h and 6 h rainfalls are relatively more concentrative,and the risk probability is the smallest. Results of this research could provide new ideas and references for the development and comparison of rain storm patterns.
引文
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[2]牟金磊.北京市设计暴雨雨型分析[D].兰州:兰州交通大学,2011.
[3]岑国平,沈晋,范荣生.城市设计暴雨雨型研究[J].水科学进展,1998(1):42-47.
[4]刘成林.城市排水防涝系统设计降雨时空分布特性研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2015.
[5]杨星,朱大栋,李朝方,等.按风险率模型分析的设计雨型[J].水利学报,2013,44(5):542-548.
[6]闫鹏飞,孙静涛,冯晓宁.基于excel的水文频率曲线绘制方法[J].黑龙江交通科技,2013,36(11):111-112.
[7]汪明.雨水池设计理论研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2008.
[8]张建平,朱友聪,朱骊.暴雨衰减指数在中小流域雨型设计中的运用探讨[J].中国农村水利水电,2013(7):75-77+80.
[9]胡琳琳,施征.暴雨衰减指数在短历时可能最大暴雨研究中的应用[J].浙江水利科技,2014,42(4):26-27+30.
[10]黄平.粒子群算法改进及其在电力系统的应用[D].广州:华南理工大学,2012.
[11]刘衍民.粒子群算法的研究及应用[D].济南:山东师范大学,2011.
[12]田风霞,赵传燕,冯兆东.黄土高原地区降水的空间分布[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2009,45(5):1-5.
[13]邵卫云,黄宁,周永潮,等.基于双矩形雨型的降雨不均匀性和不确定性分析[J].科技通报,2017,33(2):13-17+23.
[14]施超,赵继超.基于Kendall'τ的风光出力相关性分析[J].中国科技信息,2016(23):74-75.
[15]韩晓庆.Copula函数的理论及其应用[D].温州:温州大学,2013.
[16]袁超,宋松柏.基于Copula函数的水文干旱联合概率分布研究[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2016,14(6):50-53.
[17]张翔,冉啟香,夏军,等.基于Copula函数的水量水质联合分布函数[J].水利学报,2011,42(4):483-489.