物流产业生态位适宜度测度模型及其动态耦合演化
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摘要
我国经济发展新常态下,物流产业能否降本增效及生态发展事关经济增长范式转变的成败。从生态位角度研究物流产业问题,通过分析物流产业生态位适宜度动态演化规律与其内部生态因子间的耦合、协调程度,来科学预测我国31个省份物流产业的发展趋势。研究表明:目前各省份物流产业的生态位适宜度在0.333～0.671范围内,难以适应物流产业绿色发展、生态发展要求,且受其内部生态因子之间耦合、协调程度的影响。就此提出未来物流产业科学管理、低碳发展的相关政策建议。
Under the new normal condition of China's economic development, whether the logistics industry can reduce the cost and increase efficiency and ecological development is related to the success or failure of the transformation of economic growth paradigm. This paper studies the logistics industry from the perspective of niche. By analyzing the coupling and coordination between the dynamic evolution law of niche suitability of logistics industry and its internal ecological factors, this paper scientifically predicts the development trend of logistics industry in 31 provinces of China. The results show that the niche suitability of logistics industry in various provinces is in the range of 0.333 ～ 0.671, which is difficult to meet the requirements of green development and ecological development of logistics industry, and is affected by the coupling and coordination degree between its internal ecological factors. This article also puts forward the future logistics industry scientific management, low-carbon development related policy recommendations. In view of this, this article proposes the future logistics industry scientific management, the lowcarbon development related policy suggestion.
Under the new normal condition of China's economic development, whether the logistics industry can reduce the cost and increase efficiency and ecological development is related to the success or failure of the transformation of economic growth paradigm. This paper studies the logistics industry from the perspective of niche. By analyzing the coupling and coordination between the dynamic evolution law of niche suitability of logistics industry and its internal ecological factors, this paper scientifically predicts the development trend of logistics industry in 31 provinces of China. The results show that the niche suitability of logistics industry in various provinces is in the range of 0.333 ～ 0.671, which is difficult to meet the requirements of green development and ecological development of logistics industry, and is affected by the coupling and coordination degree between its internal ecological factors. This article also puts forward the future logistics industry scientific management, low-carbon development related policy recommendations. In view of this, this article proposes the future logistics industry scientific management, the lowcarbon development related policy suggestion.
引文
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[29]杨士弘.广州城市环境与经济协调发展预测及调控研究[J].地理科学,1994,14(2):136-143.
[30]里夫金.第三次工业革命[M].张体伟,孙豫宁,译.北京:中信出版社,2009.
[2]世界银行.世界银行公开数据[EB/OL].(更新日期不详)[2018-01-02].https://data.worldbank.org.cn/.
[3]MCINTOSH R P.The background of ecology:concept and theory[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1986.
[4]GRIESEMER J R.Niche:historical perspectives[M]//KELLER E F,LLOYD E A.Keywords in evolutionary biology.Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1992:231-240.
[5]COLWELL R K.Niche:a bifurcation in the conceptual lineage of the term[M]//KELLER E F,LLOYD E A.Keywords in evolutionary biology.Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1992:241-248.
[6]REAL L A,LEVIN S A.Theoretical advances:the role of theory in the rise of modern ecology[M]//REAL L A,BROWN J H.Foundations of ecology:classic papers with commentaries.1 ed.Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1991:177-191.
[7]FREEMANAND J,HANNAN M T.Setting the record straight on organizational ecology:rebuttal to young[J].Readings in Population Research Methodology,1989,95(2):425-439.
[8]BAUM J A C,SINGH J V.Organizational niches and the dynamics of organizational mortality[J].American Journal of Sociology,1994,100(2):346-380.
[9]DIMMICK J,ROTHENBUHLER E.The theory of the niche:quantifying competition among media industries[J].Journal of Communication,1984,34(1):103-119.
[10]刘志峰.战略性新兴产业生态位培育模式、机制与策略[J].商业经济研究,2016(14):166-168.
[11]郭燕青,徐菁鸿.产业生态位与种群规模的趋同效应研究:以中国汽车产业为例[J].沈阳工业大学学报(社会科学版),2014,7(3):251-257.
[12]刘贻新,张光宇,邓晓锋.战略生态位管理(SNM)与技术创新:理论背景及其研究框架[J].系统科学学报,2015,23(4):92-96.
[13]李华军,张光宇,刘贻新.基于战略生态位管理理论的战略性新兴产业创新系统研究[J].科技进步与对策,2012,29(3):61-64.
[14]容和平,王跃婷.物流产业的生态位构建[J].晋中学院学报,2010,27(4):53-58.
[15]刘岩,李全喜,刘佳琳.基于生态位理论的物流成长规律研究[J].科技管理研究,2012,32(15):171-175.
[16]周凌云,周晶,穆东,等.区域物流微观主体聚集演化机理与路径:基于生态学视野的研究[J].中国流通经济,2013,27(9):28-34.
[17]DIMMICK J.Ecology,economics and gratification utilities[M]//ALEXANDER A,OWERS J,CARVETH R.Media economics:theory and practice.Hillsdale:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates,1993.
[18]孙丽文,李跃.京津冀区域创新生态系统生态位适宜度评价[J].科技进步与对策,2017,34(4):47-53.
[19]ODLING-SMEE F J,LALAND K N,FELDMAN M W.Niche construction:the neglected process in evolution[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press,2013.
[20]林红,李自珍.半干旱区作物生态位适宜度模型及水肥调控试验结果的定量分析[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),1998,34(1):100-105.
[21]DIAKOULAKI D,MAVROTAS G,PAPAYANNAKIS L.Determining objective weights in multiple criteria problems:the critic method[J].Computers&Operations Research,1995,22(7):763-770.
[22]吴希.三种权重赋权法的比较分析[J].中国集体经济,2016(34):73-74.
[23]李自珍,李文龙,马智慧,等.作物生态位适宜度模型及其在春小麦生长系统中的应用[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2010,46(2):45-50.
[24]唐建荣,汪肖肖,潘洁.物流产业集群“生态位适宜度”实证研究[J].华东经济管理,2015,29(11):102-107.
[25]韩明彩.期刊综合评价指标标准化方法研究:价值评估法:以图书情报学期刊为例[J].情报理论与实践,2012,35(10):30-32.
[26]杜媚,姜前昆,唐立新.生态位视角下物流产业竞争力评价:以长江中游城市群16城市为例[J].商业经济研究,2016(22):77-79.
[27]RODRIGUE J P,NOTTEBOOM T.Comparative North American and European gateway logistics:the regionalism of freight distribution[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2010,18(4):497-507.
[28]陈端吕,彭保发,熊建新.环洞庭湖区生态经济系统的耦合特征研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(11):1338-1346.
[29]杨士弘.广州城市环境与经济协调发展预测及调控研究[J].地理科学,1994,14(2):136-143.
[30]里夫金.第三次工业革命[M].张体伟,孙豫宁,译.北京:中信出版社,2009.