2013年1月我国中东部强霾污染的数值模拟和防控对策
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摘要
利用自主研制的嵌套网格空气质量数值预报模式(NAQPMS)模拟研究2013年1月我国中东部的持续强灰霾天气,初步评估灰霾天气下大气细颗粒物(PM2.5)时空分布特征、传输规律和防控力度.结果表明:这一模式能够合理反映灰霾天气下中东部PM2.5的时空分布特征和演变规律.发现静稳天气京津冀地区仍旧存在显著的区域输送,并直接造成京津冀地区PM2.5浓度的累积,来自区域外的跨城市群输送对京津冀PM2.5浓度贡献为20%~35%,区域内输送的贡献为26%~35%,两者之和与局地污染源贡献相当.针对这次强霾的控制试验表明,当京津冀周边区域省份污染源不控制,河北、天津和北京的污染物排放需要消减90%,90%和60%以上才能实现京津冀区域PM2.5达标(二级标准),表明京津冀灰霾污染防控不仅需要重视区域内的联防联控,同时也需要其他城市群的协同控制.气象-大气污染双向反馈机制对强霾的形成也有非常重要影响,可使京津冀部分地区细颗粒物月均浓度增加30%,忽视这种耦合作用会导致模式对重污染期间污染物浓度的低估.
引文
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李杰,王自发,吴其重.2010.对流层O3区域输送的定量评估方法研究.气候与环境研究,15:529–540
李琳,李崇银,谭言科,等.2010.平流层爆发性增温对中国天气气候的影响及其在ENSO影响中的作用.地球物理学报,53:1529–1542
吴兑.2012.近十年中国灰霾天气研究综述.环境科学学报,32:257–269
吴其重,王自发,徐文帅,等.2010.多模式模拟评估奥运赛事期间可吸入颗粒物减排效果.环境科学报,30:1739–1748
王喜全,杨婷,王自发.2011.灰霾污染的跨控制区影响:一次京津冀与东北地区灰霾污染个案分析气候与环境研究,16:690–696
张小曳,孙俊英,王亚强,等.2013.我国雾-霾成因及其治理的思考.科学通报,58:1178–1187
Chang D,Song Y,Liu B.2009.Visibility trends in six megacities in China 1973-2007.Atmos Res,94:161–167
Donkelaar A,Martin R V,Brauer M,et al.2010.Global estimates of ambient fine particulate matter concentrations from satellite-based aerosol optical depth:development and application.Environ Health Perspect,118:847–855
Grewe,V.2004.Technical note:A diagnostic for ozone contributions of various NOx emissions in multi-decadal chemistry-climate model simulations.Atmos Chem Phys,4:729–736
Guenther A,Hewitt N,Erickson D,et al.1995.A global model of natural volatile organic compound emissions.J Geophys Res,100:8873–8892
Kurokawa J,Ohara T,Morikawa T,et al.2013.Emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases over Asian regions during 2000–2008:Regional Emission inventory in ASia(REAS)version 2.Atmos Chem Phys Discuss,13:10049–10123
Li J,Wang Z F,Wang X Q,et al.2011.Impacts of aerosols on summertime tropospheric photolysis frequencies and photochemistry over Central Eastern China.Atmos Environ,45:1817–1829
Li J,Wang Z F,Zhuang G,et al.2012.Mixing of Asian mineral dust with anthropogenicpollutants over East Asia:A model cast study of a super-duststorm in March 2010.Atmos Chem Phys,12:7591–7607
Li J,Wang Z,Akimoto H,et al.2008.Near-ground ozone source attributions and outflow in central eastern China during MTX2006.Atmos Chem Phys,8:7335–7351
Shao M,Tang X Y.2006.City clusters in China:Air and surface water pollution.Front Ecol and the Environ,4:353–361
Wang Z,Maeda T,Hayashi M,et al.2001.A nested air quality prediction modeling system for urban and regional scales:Application for high-ozone episode in Taiwan.Water Air Soil Pollut,130:391–396
Wu Q Z,Wang Z F,Gbaguidi A,et al.2011.Numerical study of contributions to air pollution in Bei-jing during CAREBeijing-2006.Atmos Chem Phys,11:5997–6011
Zhang J K,Sun Y,Liu Z R,et al.2013.Characterization of submicron aerosols during a serious pollution month in Beijing(2013)using an aerodyne high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer Atmos Chem Phys Discuss,13:19009–19049