基于计划行为理论的樱桃种植户对气候变化与气象灾害适应行为研究
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摘要
了解农户气候变化与气象灾害适应行为影响机制对未来制定有效气候变化政策至关重要。基于计划行为理论,利用西安市白鹿原樱桃种植区农户的调查数据,结合结构方程模型分析樱桃种植户气候变化与气象灾害适应行为机制。研究表明,种植户关于气候变化与气象灾害的行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制三者之间相互影响,且三者均可直接影响种植户适应气候变化与气象灾害的行为意向,其中行为态度对行为意向的影响最为显著;种植户的知觉行为控制对于气候变化及气象灾害的适应行为影响不显著;种植户对气候变化与气象灾害的行为意向是影响其适应行为最直接的因素。
It is essential to understand the mechanism of behaviors in farmers' adaptation to climate change and meteorological disasters to make climate change policies in the future. In combine with the structural equation model, the survey data of farmers in the cherry planting area of Bailuyuan in Xi'an were used to analyze the behavior mechanism of growers' adaptation to climate change and meteorological disasters based on Theory of Planned Behavior. The results show that cherry growers' attitude toward the behavior, subject norm and perceived behavior control interact with each other. They have a direct positive impact on behavior intention, and attitude toward the behavior has the highest impact. Growers' behavioral intention to climate change and meteorological disasters has a significant impact on adaptation behavior. The perceived behavior control of peasant households has not significant influence on the adaptation to climate change behavior and meteorological disasters.
It is essential to understand the mechanism of behaviors in farmers' adaptation to climate change and meteorological disasters to make climate change policies in the future. In combine with the structural equation model, the survey data of farmers in the cherry planting area of Bailuyuan in Xi'an were used to analyze the behavior mechanism of growers' adaptation to climate change and meteorological disasters based on Theory of Planned Behavior. The results show that cherry growers' attitude toward the behavior, subject norm and perceived behavior control interact with each other. They have a direct positive impact on behavior intention, and attitude toward the behavior has the highest impact. Growers' behavioral intention to climate change and meteorological disasters has a significant impact on adaptation behavior. The perceived behavior control of peasant households has not significant influence on the adaptation to climate change behavior and meteorological disasters.
引文
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(1)1亩=0.0667 hm2。
[2]Center P.Global concern about climate change,broad support for limiting emissions[EB/OL].2015[2018-10-20].http://sa.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Pew-Research-Center-Climate-Change-Report-FINAL-November-5-2015.pdf
[3]刘德祥,董安祥,邓振镛.中国西部地区气候变暖对农业的影响[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(1):119-125.Liu D X,Dong A X,Deng Z Y.Impact of climate warming on agriculture in Northwest China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2005,20(1):119-125(in Chinese)
[4]王鹤龄,张强,王润元,等.气候变化对甘肃省农业气候资源和主要作物栽培格局的影响[J].生态学报,2017,37(18):6099-6110.Wang H L,Zhang Q,Wang R Y,et al.Effects of climate change on agro climatic resources and potential primary cropping patterns in Gansu province[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(18):6099-6110(in Chinese)
[5]孙立凡,史兴民,王露.农户对气候变化适应行为的有效性评价[J].中国沙漠,2018,38(2):428-436.Sun L F,Shi X M,Wang L.Assessments of the efficacy of farmers’adaptive behaviors to climate change[J].Journal of Desert Research,2018,38(2):428-436(in Chinese)
[6]史兴民.公众对气候变化的感知与适应行为研究进展[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(6):258-264,271.Shi X M.Research progress in public perception and adaption behavior of climate change[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,36(6):258-264,271(in Chinese)
[7]朱国锋,秦大河,任贾文,等.山区牧民对极端气候事件的感知与适应:基于祁连山区少数民族乡的调查[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(5):371-378.Zhu G F,Qin D H,Ren J W,et al.Perceptions and adaptation of herdsmen in typical mountain minority areas to climate change:a case study of 3 minority townships in Qilian Mountains[J].Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis,2015,11(5):371-378(in Chinese)
[8]艾婉秀,王长科,吕明辉,等.中国公众对气候变化和气象灾害认知的社会性别差异[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(3):318-324.Ai W X,Wang C K,Lyu M H,et al.Gender differences in perceptions of climate change and meteorological disasters in China[J].Climate Change Research,2018,14(3):318-324(in Chinese)
[9]李西良,侯向阳,丁勇,等.天山北坡家庭牧场尺度气候变化感知与响应策略[J].干旱区研究,2014,31(2):285-293.Li X L,Hou X Y,Ding Y,et al.Herdsmen’perception and adaptation to climate change in northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains at household pasture scale[J].Arid Zone Research,2014,31(2):285-293(in Chinese)
[10]祁新华,杨颖,金星星,等.农户对气候变化的感知与生计适应:基于中部与东部村庄的调查对比[J].生态学报,2017,37(1):286-293.Qi X H,Yang Y,Jin X X,et al.Rural household perceptions and adaptations to climate change based on an investigation and comparison of two middle and eastern villages in China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(1):286-293(in Chinese)
[11]Niles M T,Mueller N D.Farmer perceptions of climate change:associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends,irrigation,and climate beliefs[J].Global Environmental Change,2016,39:133-142
[12]Reidsma P,Ewert F,Lansink A O,et al.Adaption to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture:the importance of farm level responses[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2010,32(1):91-102
[13]侯志瑞,陈琼,周强,等.青藏高原东北缘山地农户对气候变化的感知及适应策略:以湟水中游为例[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(2):175-181.Hou Z R,Chen Q,Zhou Q,et al.The perception of climate change and adaptation strategies of farmers in the northeast edge mountainous of the Tibetan Plateau:a case of the middle reach of the Huangshui River[J].Climate Change Research,2018,14(2):175-181(in Chinese)
[14]王露,史兴民,孙立凡.陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区农户气候变化的适应行为及影响因素分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(1):61-68.Wang L,Shi X M,Sun L F.Farmer’s adaptive behaviors and its influence factors to climate change:a case study in hilly and gully area of northern Shaanxi[J].Climate Change Research,2017,13(1):61-68(in Chinese)
[15]雒丽,赵雪雁,王亚茹,等.石羊河流域农户对气候变化的感知及其影响因素[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(4):1171-1181.Luo L,Zhao X Y,Wang Y R,et al.Farmers’perception and its influence factors of climate change in the Shiyang River basin[J].Journal of Desert Research,2016,36(4):1171-1181(in Chinese)
[16]Below T B,Mutabazi K D,Kirschke D,et al.Can farmers’adaptation to climate change be explained by social-economic household-level variables[J].Global Evironmental Change,2012,22(1):223-235
[17]Mugingenga E W,Mucherumuna M W,Mugwe J N,et al.Household’s social-economical factors influencing the level of adaptation to climate variability in the dry zones of Eastern Kenya[J].Journal of Rural Studies,2016,43:49-60
[18]张钦,赵雪雁,王亚茹,等.气候变化对石羊河流域农户生计资本的影响[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(3):814-822.Zhang Q,Zhao XY,Wang Y R,et al.Impacts of climate change on farmers livelihood capital in the Shiyang River basin of China[J].Journal of Desert Research,2016,36(3):814-822(in Chinese)
[19]朱红根,周曙东.南方稻区农户适应气候变化行为实证分析:基于江西省36县(市)346份农户调查数据[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(7):1119-1128.Zhu H G,Zhou S D.Factors influencing southern rice farmers adapting to climate change behavior:based on 346household survey data of 36 counties in Jiangxi province[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(7):1119-1128(in Chinese)
[20]Deressa T T,Hassan R M,Ringler C,et al.Determinants of farmers’choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile basin of Ethiopia[J].Global Environmental Change,2009,19(2):248-255
[21]Rodima-Taylor D,Olwig M F,Chhetri N.Adaptation as innovation,innovation as adaptation:an institutional approach to climate change[J].Applied Geography,2012,33(1):107-111
[22]周景博,杨小明,何霄嘉,等.气候变化适应措施的选择与偏好分析:基于青藏高原生态功能保护区的调查[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(6):484-493.Zhou J B,Yang X M,He X J,et al.Priorities and preferences analysis of climate change adaptation measures:based on the survey of EFCAs on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J].Climate Change Research,2016,12(6):484-493(in Chinese)
[23]灞桥区人民政府.2017灞桥年鉴[M].西安:西安出版社,2018.People’s Government of Baqiao District.Baqiao statistical yearbook (2017)[M].Xi’an:Xi’an Publishing House,2018(in Chinese)
[24]张宏利,解斌,廖小玲,等.西安灞桥樱桃高产优质气候适应性研究[J].北方园艺,2016(15):1-5.Zhang H L,Xie B,Liao X L,et al.The climate adaptability research on high production and quality cherry in Baqiao,Xi’an[J].Northern Horticulture,2016(15):1-5(in Chinese)
[25]Schindler F H.Development of the survey of environmental issue attitudes[J].Journal of Environmental Education,1999,30(3):12-16
[26]Ajzen I,Madden T.Prediction of goal-directed behavior:attitudes,intentions,and perceived behavioral control[J].Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,1986,22(5):453-474
[27]Hu S F,Chen J.Place-based inter-generational communication on local climate improves adolescents’perceptions and willingness to mitigate climate change[J].Climatic Change,2016,138(3-4):425-438
[28]Spence A,Townsend E.Examining consumer behavior toward Genetically Modified(GM)food in Britain[J].Risk Analysis,2006,26(3):657-670
[29]Below T,Artner A,Siebert R,et al.Micro-level practices to adapt to climate change for African small-scale farmers:a review of selected literature[J].Ifpri Discussion Papers,2010,55(4):488
[30]Ajzen I.From intentions to actions:a theory of planned behavior[J].Springer Berlin Heidelberg,1985,22(8):11-39
[31]高琴,敖长林,毛碧琦,等.基于计划行为理论的湿地生态系统服务支付意愿及影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(5):893-901.Gao Q,Ao C L,Mao B Q,et al.Analysis of willingness to pay for ecosystem services and influence factors based on the TPB[J].Resources Science,2017,39(5):893-901(in Chinese)
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(1)1亩=0.0667 hm2。