汉语文化传播与“中国制造”的海外影响力
|
摘要
本文以中国与各国开展孔子学院项目为契机,实证分析汉语文化传播政策的经贸意义。依据2005年至2015年中国与各国的孔子学院合作程度,本文利用双重差分法将国家样本分为实验组和对照组,实证发现汉语文化传播对"中国制造"品的海外贸易具有提升作用。我们认为汉语文化传播政策在短期内作为信号机制具有宣传价值;长期内一方面会促进海外居民对"中国制造"品的认知和认同度,另一方面会促进跨国人员交往,进而汉语文化传播可以扩大双边贸易的信息资本优势,间接通过增加"消费偏好效应"和"社会网络效应"从而提升"中国制造"品的贸易竞争力;汉语文化推广政策具有时滞性和国别差异性,对欠发达(或相对封闭)非OECD国家的贸易影响更为显著。
This article takes China's Confucius Institute Project as an opportunity to empirically analyze the economic and trade significance of Chinese culture communication policy. Based on the degree of cooperation between China and the Confucius institutes in China from 2005 to2015,We used the difference-in-difference(DID)method to divide the national sample into the experimental group and the control group;The empirical findings show that the spread of Chinese culture has a positive effect on the overseas trade of "made-in-China" products. We believe that the communication policy of Chinese culture has a propaganda value in the short term;In the long term,it will promote the awareness and recognition of "made-in-China" products by overseas residents,and promote the level of cross-border personnel exchanges. Therefore,the spread of Chinese culture can expand the information capital advantage of bilateral trade,through the increase of "consumer preference effect" and "social network effect" to enhance the trade competitiveness of "made-in-China" products indirectly.Finally,the Chinese language culture promotion policy has the effect of time lag and country difference,the impact on the trade with less developed(or relatively closed)non-OECD countries is more significant.
This article takes China's Confucius Institute Project as an opportunity to empirically analyze the economic and trade significance of Chinese culture communication policy. Based on the degree of cooperation between China and the Confucius institutes in China from 2005 to2015,We used the difference-in-difference(DID)method to divide the national sample into the experimental group and the control group;The empirical findings show that the spread of Chinese culture has a positive effect on the overseas trade of "made-in-China" products. We believe that the communication policy of Chinese culture has a propaganda value in the short term;In the long term,it will promote the awareness and recognition of "made-in-China" products by overseas residents,and promote the level of cross-border personnel exchanges. Therefore,the spread of Chinese culture can expand the information capital advantage of bilateral trade,through the increase of "consumer preference effect" and "social network effect" to enhance the trade competitiveness of "made-in-China" products indirectly.Finally,the Chinese language culture promotion policy has the effect of time lag and country difference,the impact on the trade with less developed(or relatively closed)non-OECD countries is more significant.
引文
[1]包群,邵敏,侯维忠.出口改善了员工收入吗?[J].经济研究,2011(9):41-54.
[2]连大祥.孔子学院对中国出口贸易及对外直接投资的影响[J].中国人民大学学报,2012(1):88-98.
[3]杨巨平.亚历山大东征与丝绸之路开通[J].历史研究,2007(4):150-161.
[4]Choi E.K.Trade and the Adoption of a Universal Language[J].International Review of Economics and Finance,2002,11(3):265-75.
[5]Combes P.,Lafourcade M.,Mayer T.The Trade Creating Effects of Business Social Networks:Evidence from France[J].Journal of International Economics,2005,66(1):1-29.
[6]Dunlevy J.A.The Impact of Corruption and Language on the Pro-Trade Effect of Immigrants:Evidence from the American States[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2006,88(1):182-86.
[7]Eriyi?it M.,Kotil E.,Eryi?it R.Factors Affecting International Tourism Flows to Turkey:AGravity Model Approach[J].Tourism Economics,2010,16(3):585-95.
[8]Feenstra R.,Lipsey R.,Deng H.Y.,Ma Y.World Trade Flows:1962-2000[R].NEBR Working Papers,No.11040,2004.
[9]Felbermayr G.,Jung B.,Toubal F.Ethnic Networks,Information,and International Trade:Revisiting the Evidence[J].Annales d'Economie et de Statistique,ENSAE,2010,253(98):41-70.
[10]Frankel J.,Rose A.K.An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income[J].Quarterly Journal Economics,2002,117(2):437-66.
[11]Ginsburgh V.,Ortuno-Ortin J.,Weber S.Learning Foreign Languages:Theoretical and Empirical Implicaitons of the Selten and Pool Model[J].Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,2007,64(3/4):337-47.
[12]Girma S.,Yu Z.The Link between Immigration and Trade:Evidence from the UK[J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv.,2002,138(1):115-30.
[13]Gould D.M.Immigrant Links to the Home Country:Empirical Implications for U.S.Bilateral Trade Flows[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1994,76(2):302-16.
[14]Hanban.Confucius Institute Online[EB/OL].http://english.hanban.org/,2012.
[15]Head K.,Ries J.Immigration and Trade Creation:Econometric Evidence from Canada[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,1998,31(1):47-62.
[16]Helliwell J.Language and Trade[G]//Breton A.(ed.).Exploring the Economics of Language.Ottawa:Official Languages Support Programs,1999:5-30.
[17]Hsiao M.,Yang A.Transformations in China's Soft Power toward ASEAN[J].China Brief,2008,8(22):11-15.
[18]Hutchinsion W.K.Does Ease of Communicaiton Increase Trade?Commonality of Language and Bilateral Trade[J].Scottish Journal of Political Economy,2002,49(5):544-56.
[19]Lazear E.P.Culture and Language[J].Journal of Political Economy,1999,107(6):95-126.
[20]Lien D.,Chang H.O.,Selmier T.Confucius Institute Effects on China's Trade and FDI:Isn't it Delightful When Folks Afar Study Hanyu?[J].International Review of Economics and Finance,2012,7(12):147-55.
[21]Melitz J.Language and Foreign Trade[J].European Economic Review,2008(52):667-99.
[22]Rauch J.E.,Trindade V.Ethnic Chinese Networks in International Trade[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,2002,84(1):116-30.
[23]Redding S.,Venables A.Geography and Export Performance:External Market Access and Internal Supply Capacity[J].Eprint Arxiv,2004,l17(4):404-31.
[24]Shawn A.,Edmonds C.,La Croix S.,Mak J.Impact of Approved Destination Status on Chinese Travel Abroad:An Econometric Analysis[J].Tourism Economics,2011,17(5):983-96.
[25]Wagner D.,Head K.,Ries J.Immigration and the Trade of Provinces[J].Scottish Journal of Political Economy,2002,49(5):507-25.
(1)525所孔子学院中,亚洲33国(地区)118所,非洲39国54所,欧洲41国173所,美洲21国161所,大洋洲4国19所。孔子课堂79国(地区)共1113个(科摩罗、缅甸、瓦努阿图、格林纳达、莱索托、库克群岛、安道尔、欧盟只有课堂,没有学院),其中,亚洲21国101个,非洲15国30个,欧洲30国307个,美洲9国574个,大洋洲4国101个。
(1)国际旅游可以加深外国消费者对东道国的文化认知,使其更广泛接触东道国传统工业品和制造品,长期来看旅游贸易必然会带动制造业商品的双边贸易(Hehmet等,2010;Shawn等,2011)。
(1)在现实宏观经济中,诸多经济变量或现象均存在同期的截面关联性,如在不同的资产定价模型中,我们发现资产在同一特定市场环境下,市场波动会对所有个体造成共同或类似的冲击(且不易被发现或观察),其扰动项通常会表现出显著的同期相关性。
(1)此外逆向因果关系也可能导致内生性问题,DID估计可以通过差分来消除掉政策iCCP前后的iη因素(即逆向因果的内生性扰动项)。为了稳健性,我们也引入了干预效应模型来解决样本选择导致的内生性。
(1)鉴于内生性问题的担忧,我们分别利用DID-SUR和DID-TE方法在两个因变量组中的回归(2)和回归(3)以及回归(6)和回归(7)进行了多组估计。
[2]连大祥.孔子学院对中国出口贸易及对外直接投资的影响[J].中国人民大学学报,2012(1):88-98.
[3]杨巨平.亚历山大东征与丝绸之路开通[J].历史研究,2007(4):150-161.
[4]Choi E.K.Trade and the Adoption of a Universal Language[J].International Review of Economics and Finance,2002,11(3):265-75.
[5]Combes P.,Lafourcade M.,Mayer T.The Trade Creating Effects of Business Social Networks:Evidence from France[J].Journal of International Economics,2005,66(1):1-29.
[6]Dunlevy J.A.The Impact of Corruption and Language on the Pro-Trade Effect of Immigrants:Evidence from the American States[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2006,88(1):182-86.
[7]Eriyi?it M.,Kotil E.,Eryi?it R.Factors Affecting International Tourism Flows to Turkey:AGravity Model Approach[J].Tourism Economics,2010,16(3):585-95.
[8]Feenstra R.,Lipsey R.,Deng H.Y.,Ma Y.World Trade Flows:1962-2000[R].NEBR Working Papers,No.11040,2004.
[9]Felbermayr G.,Jung B.,Toubal F.Ethnic Networks,Information,and International Trade:Revisiting the Evidence[J].Annales d'Economie et de Statistique,ENSAE,2010,253(98):41-70.
[10]Frankel J.,Rose A.K.An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income[J].Quarterly Journal Economics,2002,117(2):437-66.
[11]Ginsburgh V.,Ortuno-Ortin J.,Weber S.Learning Foreign Languages:Theoretical and Empirical Implicaitons of the Selten and Pool Model[J].Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,2007,64(3/4):337-47.
[12]Girma S.,Yu Z.The Link between Immigration and Trade:Evidence from the UK[J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv.,2002,138(1):115-30.
[13]Gould D.M.Immigrant Links to the Home Country:Empirical Implications for U.S.Bilateral Trade Flows[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1994,76(2):302-16.
[14]Hanban.Confucius Institute Online[EB/OL].http://english.hanban.org/,2012.
[15]Head K.,Ries J.Immigration and Trade Creation:Econometric Evidence from Canada[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,1998,31(1):47-62.
[16]Helliwell J.Language and Trade[G]//Breton A.(ed.).Exploring the Economics of Language.Ottawa:Official Languages Support Programs,1999:5-30.
[17]Hsiao M.,Yang A.Transformations in China's Soft Power toward ASEAN[J].China Brief,2008,8(22):11-15.
[18]Hutchinsion W.K.Does Ease of Communicaiton Increase Trade?Commonality of Language and Bilateral Trade[J].Scottish Journal of Political Economy,2002,49(5):544-56.
[19]Lazear E.P.Culture and Language[J].Journal of Political Economy,1999,107(6):95-126.
[20]Lien D.,Chang H.O.,Selmier T.Confucius Institute Effects on China's Trade and FDI:Isn't it Delightful When Folks Afar Study Hanyu?[J].International Review of Economics and Finance,2012,7(12):147-55.
[21]Melitz J.Language and Foreign Trade[J].European Economic Review,2008(52):667-99.
[22]Rauch J.E.,Trindade V.Ethnic Chinese Networks in International Trade[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,2002,84(1):116-30.
[23]Redding S.,Venables A.Geography and Export Performance:External Market Access and Internal Supply Capacity[J].Eprint Arxiv,2004,l17(4):404-31.
[24]Shawn A.,Edmonds C.,La Croix S.,Mak J.Impact of Approved Destination Status on Chinese Travel Abroad:An Econometric Analysis[J].Tourism Economics,2011,17(5):983-96.
[25]Wagner D.,Head K.,Ries J.Immigration and the Trade of Provinces[J].Scottish Journal of Political Economy,2002,49(5):507-25.
(1)525所孔子学院中,亚洲33国(地区)118所,非洲39国54所,欧洲41国173所,美洲21国161所,大洋洲4国19所。孔子课堂79国(地区)共1113个(科摩罗、缅甸、瓦努阿图、格林纳达、莱索托、库克群岛、安道尔、欧盟只有课堂,没有学院),其中,亚洲21国101个,非洲15国30个,欧洲30国307个,美洲9国574个,大洋洲4国101个。
(1)国际旅游可以加深外国消费者对东道国的文化认知,使其更广泛接触东道国传统工业品和制造品,长期来看旅游贸易必然会带动制造业商品的双边贸易(Hehmet等,2010;Shawn等,2011)。
(1)在现实宏观经济中,诸多经济变量或现象均存在同期的截面关联性,如在不同的资产定价模型中,我们发现资产在同一特定市场环境下,市场波动会对所有个体造成共同或类似的冲击(且不易被发现或观察),其扰动项通常会表现出显著的同期相关性。
(1)此外逆向因果关系也可能导致内生性问题,DID估计可以通过差分来消除掉政策iCCP前后的iη因素(即逆向因果的内生性扰动项)。为了稳健性,我们也引入了干预效应模型来解决样本选择导致的内生性。
(1)鉴于内生性问题的担忧,我们分别利用DID-SUR和DID-TE方法在两个因变量组中的回归(2)和回归(3)以及回归(6)和回归(7)进行了多组估计。